January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Doesn’t look too far off something under the hood

It’s not. This is just a wave spacing issue.

 

That Jan 4-5 period is certainly one to watch. Then again around the 8th. And probably after.

[bncho]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GEFS moving to EPS

 

A trend in the right direction. When has this ever happened?

[Ralph Wiggum]

31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s not. This is just a wave spacing issue.

 

That Jan 4-5 period is certainly one to watch. Then again around the 8th. And probably after.

A little more separation between those waves would do a world of good. Doesn't look like it would take much tbh.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[CAPE]

Multiple signals on the latest EPS from around the 3rd on, but the 8th is the strongest. Actually favors frozen south of us.

 

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Multiple signals on the latest EPS from around the 3rd on, but the 8th is the strongest. Actually favors frozen south of us.

 

This is becoming consistent for the 8th, no? Bunch of runs. I'll be holding my breath until new years though.

[batmanbrad]

3 hours ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

...and "It has snowed in April!" 

along with countless references to the infamous DC Snowhole

[WxUSAF]

@MN Transplant we’ll take pictures for you

 

[MN Transplant]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@MN Transplant we’ll take pictures for you

 

I’m still mad about Jan 2011

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

I’m still mad about Jan 2011

With enough willpower, we can combine our forces and make the storm in the 4th-6th window or postpone the best pattern til mid/late January. Keep manifesting!

[WxUSAF]

20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

With enough willpower, we can combine our forces and make the storm in the 4th-6th window or postpone the best pattern til mid/late January. Keep manifesting!

After the secs on the 5th and the HECS on the 8th, there will still be huge parking lots piles when you both return!

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

After the secs on the 5th and the HECS on the 8th, there will still be huge parking lots piles when you both return!

He shouldn't worry, after all the ice storm on the 12th will make sure it doesn't melt too fast

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I just can't believe how much the polar blocking weakened on 12z GFS ensembles, again today. That is a 3 days in a row. It's a weak signal now. In January, you can get some snow with many patterns, but we are talking like +150dm over the EPO and NAO regions. It's not a major cold signal, we only get a substantial trough in the east at 384hr, again. 

[bncho]

Having a SECS would be better than having SECS.

[WEATHER53]

10 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Imo only (and @psuhoffmanmentioned something similar), expected results based on enso climo aren't working anymore. It started after 2016 and hasn't really stopped lol. Since extended products rely heavily on long term enso climo, they have deemed themselves unreliable in all directions. Sometimes they nail it but there's been a lot of dandruff piling up from all the collective head scratching lol. 

When I did my wagging in October, I had been thinking about this a lot. For a couple years really. That's the primary reason I went against the grain. Not because I'm smarter than weather lol. It just made a lot of sense in the thought computer after being quite wrong for "weird" reasons last 3-5 years. 

 

Yes Enso does not work at all like it used to. Most of the rest like  SSW and MJO still under study. What does still prevail is the NAO and AO and the historical cold supplying region being in play .  Models can’t tell if a low is off Norfolk or over Pittsburgh beyond 4 days so that hampers tremendously. At the very least we are having less cold absence so far 

 

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS extended.....weekly temps and total precip.  Now we wait to see if it will deliver....

 

 

 

 

 

 

[TSSN+]

20 minutes ago, bncho said:

Having a SECS would be better than having SECS.

Speak for yourself 

[AlexD1990]

My 35th birthday is the 9th, so I would love a massive snowstorm to distract me from imminent middle age lol. Been tracking since 2002/2003! What a run

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

[Solution Man]

@stormtrackersighting

[Eskimo Joe]

50 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

My 35th birthday is the 9th, so I would love a massive snowstorm to distract me from imminent middle age lol. Been tracking since 2002/2003! What a run

Sent from my Pixel 9 Pro XL using Tapatalk

Congrats on reaching speed limit age!

[RDM]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Congrats on reaching speed limit age!

If only I could remember what it was like when I was 35.  My age is quickly approaching the autobahn speed equivalent.   Been tracking weather since mid-60's - built my first Heathkit weather station in the early 70's, back when it really got cold.  Keeping fingers crossed the upcoming period in early Jan resurrects faith from the Mid-Atlantic faithful in the standards for SECS, MECS, HECS and even BECS. 

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Congrats on reaching speed limit age!

Wait so that's what it's called? Lol So I guess today begins my last year of being below the speed limit 

[T. August]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait so that's what it's called? Lol So I guess today begins my last year of being below the speed limit 

Happy birthday!

[LongRanger]

My Heathkit ID4001 station from the 70s is still working, anemometer and all. Probably going to outlive me. Whether its air temp sensor ever reports below zero again is another matter. At least there's a chance next month.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS, real close to my non expert eye.  

[Ji]

WB 18Z GFS, real close to my non expert eye.  

Trop Tidbits says no

Shows rain

[Weather Will]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Trop Tidbits says no

Shows rain

 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended.....weekly temps and total precip.  Now we wait to see if it will deliver....

 

 

 

 

 

 

You have the 850 map? Pretty sure we should start sweating it at hour 1000. 
 

you pay for the ultra subscription?  I’d like to see the 2000 hour H5 map, I have family that are asking about Feb.  my sister wants to know if her kid’s recital on Feb 15 will be affected. Thanks. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

@stormtrackersighting

Hey. How you be? Until I see a real threat, I’m just here to mock WW for fucking posting Day 16 maps and making declarative statements. 

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hey. How you be? Until I see a real threat, I’m just here to mock WW for fucking posting Day 16 maps and making declarative statements. 

Merry Christmas!!!!