CAPE Posted Tuesday at 12:09 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:09 PM 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Imo only (and @psuhoffmanmentioned something similar), expected results based on enso climo aren't working anymore. It started after 2016 and hasn't really stopped lol. Since extended products rely heavily on long term enso climo, they have deemed themselves unreliable in all directions. Sometimes they nail it but there's been a lot of dandruff piling up from all the collective head scratching lol. When I did my wagging in October, I had been thinking about this a lot. For a couple years really. That's the primary reason I went against the grain. Not because I'm smarter than weather lol. It just made a lot of sense in the thought computer after being quite wrong for "weird" reasons last 3-5 years. I think the extended tools are probably most useful to take a peak beyond the end of the latest ensemble run by a week to 10 days, but not 20 or 30 lol. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Tuesday at 12:47 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:47 PM That GFS snowstorm lasted 6 hours lol. Gone now with a totally different look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Tuesday at 12:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:52 PM 7 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS getting SECS-y See how long it lasts reality is temps in the 50's. This has been the cast last 5-10 years models show what should be happening and then revert to a climate change state. I know some say it dates back to 2016 but honestly it may have it's roots dating back to 1996. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted Tuesday at 12:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 12:55 PM 7 minutes ago, dailylurker said: That GFS snowstorm lasted 6 hours lol. Gone now with a totally different look. It tried. Just different timing between shortwaves and not enough spacing this run. The 0z Euro tried too. That is definitely our first window of interest. 6z GEFS has 7 or 8 members that imply frozen for our general area in the 4th-5th timeframe 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Tuesday at 01:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:07 PM 18 minutes ago, dailylurker said: That GFS snowstorm lasted 6 hours lol. Gone now with a totally different look. What a storm at 200+hrs didn’t show up on the next run? Wow that’s shocking. Models usually pretty much rock solid that far out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted Tuesday at 01:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:08 PM 16 minutes ago, dailylurker said: That GFS snowstorm lasted 6 hours lol. Gone now with a totally different look. Downstream effects of the storm that hits between the 31st-2nd is the catalyst to getting the upper levels right for colder souther tracks. Gotta wait for full resolve of that feature before really knowing anything down the line. It's going to get cold and favorable down the line. That seems very likely now. Individual impulses down the line aren't really predictable in any way yet. The way I look at things, the evidence of active flow beyond the 1st is good enough for me. What when and how is still shotgun mode. Won't be long before we know which fail scenario seems most likely lolol. 12 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Tuesday at 01:12 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:12 PM 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Downstream effects of the storm that hits between the 31st-2nd is the catalyst to getting the upper levels right for colder souther tracks. Gotta wait for full resolve of that feature before really knowing anything down the line. It's going to get cold and favorable down the line. That seems very likely now. Individual impulses down the line aren't really predictable in any way yet. The way I look at things, the evidence of active flow beyond the 1st is good enough for me. What when and how is still shotgun mode. Won't be long before we know which fail scenario seems most likely lolol. Thanks, Bob. Always appreciate your analysis. My comment was more so to get the conversation going this morning in here. It got a BC response so it worked as planned lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Tuesday at 01:19 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:19 PM That GFS snowstorm lasted 6 hours lol. Gone now with a totally different look. All the ops are good for at this range is to see “if” a pattern “could” support a storm. That’s about all I get from it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted Tuesday at 01:55 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 01:55 PM And I am up for it all. Entertaining and informative all mixed in too 1 8 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Tuesday at 02:01 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 02:01 PM If we were a sane bunch, we would all take a break and check back In early next week to see how the weekend after NYs looks...not going to happen.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:35 PM https://x.com/jhomenuk/status/1871561261890384365?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted Tuesday at 02:38 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 02:38 PM Depending on location, 20-30% of EPS members give MD (west of the Bay and east of the mountains) 3" or more of snow/sleet during the day 10-15 window 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Tuesday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:06 PM 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: If we were a sane bunch, we would all take a break and check back In early next week to see how the weekend after NYs looks...not going to happen.... Sounds like a plan. See ya in an hour. 1 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted Tuesday at 03:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 03:39 PM 1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said: And I am up for it all. Entertaining and informative all mixed in too @midatlanticweather, you forgot Sun Angle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted Tuesday at 04:43 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:43 PM 1 hour ago, toolsheds said: @midatlanticweather, you forgot Sun Angle. ...and "It has snowed in April!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted Tuesday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 04:54 PM GFS close on the 4th but just misses the timing. Fun period coming up I think. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted Tuesday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:07 PM 1 hour ago, toolsheds said: @midatlanticweather, you forgot Sun Angle. ground temp depth maps, anal fronts, forum divider 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted Tuesday at 05:20 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:20 PM 27 minutes ago, nj2va said: GFS close on the 4th but just misses the timing. Fun period coming up I think. Then some front end action from an OV low on the 7th followed by freezing temperatures down to central FL. Good start to what looks like a wintry January. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Tuesday at 05:27 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:27 PM 6 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Then some front end action from an OV low on the 8th followed by freezing temperatures down to central FL. Good start to what looks like a wintry January. The rear end action never works out here anyway. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Tuesday at 05:39 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:39 PM here are my thoughts I posted in the NYC forum: as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm in a while 16 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted Tuesday at 05:40 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:40 PM 45 minutes ago, nj2va said: GFS close on the 4th but just misses the timing. Fun period coming up I think. See you for the 18z can't wait! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:41 PM 32 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said: ground temp depth maps, anal fronts, forum divider Love those anal fronts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted Tuesday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:48 PM 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: here are my thoughts I posted in the NYC forum: as we pass the 3rd or so, we probably do enter a pretty damn favorable pattern with -EPO/-NAO and a strong signal for N ATL confluence that will help press storms to the south alongside ample cold air. there's even a hint of sagginess off Baja California indicating a somewhat active STJ. overall, this presents the chance of phasing potential over the OH / MS valleys with 50/50 confluence in place now, the strength and character of the -NAO still needs to be worked out, as this will dictate the confluence... this isn't a shoe in and there is still time for things to change, of course. I would like to see this look persist towards NYE. it's relatively high confidence overall regardless of if you're pessimistic or optimistic, objectively, this should be our best shot at seeing a larger snowstorm in a while John Madden is smiling 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Tuesday at 05:52 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 05:52 PM GEFS is all over the place wrt exact timing but says you could in theory score starting the 2nd and rolls chances through after that. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted Tuesday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:08 PM Euro is a disaster for Jan 5. just dry 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted Tuesday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:16 PM 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro is a disaster for Jan 5. just dry Euro op, euro ai, fast euro, or the beta euro? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Tuesday at 06:16 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:16 PM 17 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Great thread from Tomer about GEFS-EPS differences. At the end he points out that the GFS Graphcast (AI) is closer to the euro suite GEFS moving to EPS 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Tuesday at 06:17 PM Author Share Posted Tuesday at 06:17 PM The next significant weather event is drought busting rain next weekend. Looks wet if you are going to the Commander's Sunday night game. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted Tuesday at 06:17 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:17 PM 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro is a disaster for Jan 5. just dry Doesn’t look too far off something under the hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted Tuesday at 06:18 PM Share Posted Tuesday at 06:18 PM Whatever happens, it does look like a mild stretch leading into the pattern change…and I’m all in on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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