January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, bncho said:

Praying the EPS is right.

More spread between the ensemble suites today vs 24 hours ago, but end of GEPS has tons of moisture streaming over the eastern conus with cold air established.

[DarkSharkWX]

webb not buying GEFS/GEPS

[frd]

26 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Polar blocking really lost steam on todays 12z GEFS. It's a weak signal in the long range. Last February the same thing happened, people were comparing to 95-96, but in those maps we have 200-300dm patterns, and what the long range models are showing is only 150-180dm right now. Allows other patterns to happen underneath of it. 

The NAO turning very negative right after the +EPO CONUS ridge now happens with a -PNA

And although we still have -nao/-epo in the long range, this is a weak signal... oranges and light red. I would not be comparing to Jan 5th 1996, lol

 

 

Even a severe - NAO is not a gaurantee of cold and storms for our area. 

Three timres in the last 7 years we have had -3.0 NAO and nothing to prove for it. 

Even had historic - AO and resulted in zero snowfall. 

We really need a favorable Pac and a lot of luck as well.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

webb not buying GEFS/GEPS

GEPS is more in EPS camp than GEFS fyi

[SnowLover22]

1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said:

Looking at the models and what is forecast in the Pacific, I would not be shocked to see this rise continue and for the PDO to outright flip to positive. 

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

No signs of life on the 12z gfs 

Back to warm and rainy but the  cold  is  coming

[WxUSAF]

I think the PDO is responding more to the Nino-like flow in the NPac than the other way around. Now what is driving that is beyond my pay grade.

[JenkinsJinkies]

How much of this is people accounting for modeling accuracy beyond 5 days? Or is most of it people in the “denial” stage of grief?

[SnowLover22]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think the PDO is responding more to the Nino-like flow in the NPac than the other way around. Now what is driving that is beyond my pay grade.

I was gonna say, can’t be normal to have the PDO flip like this in a Nina is it? Anyways that Nino like flow in the NPac looks to continue according to the models. 
 

Also regardless of the cause, the PDO flipping like this can’t be a bad thing. 

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

I was gonna say, can’t be normal to have the PDO flip like this in a Nina is it? Anyways that Nino like flow in the NPac looks to continue according to the models. 
 

Also regardless of the cause, the PDO flipping like this can’t be a bad thing. 

There’s certainly some feedback and I’m not going to complain if the PDO flips. Just don’t think PDO is leading the way here.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, bncho said:

Let me just clarify:

You’re saying that the pattern isn’t the issue, it’s just an issue of we’re too warm?

Everything is a matter of degrees. But in essence yes. Our best snow pattern relies on a split flow with blocking over the top and a broad trough that directs waves at us from the TN valley. There is going to be some attempt at a SER in that long wave configuration. But the way it’s worked to our advantage in the past was if there was a cold antecedent airmass and blocking the SER was suppressed and the waves coming at us from the SW get shunted east. So we get this fetch of moisture coming at us over the cold but the storm gets forced to transfer under us. 
 

But what happens if you add more heat to all that. Waves coming in off the pacific have more energy and amplify more out west which pumps the SER more. The gulf and atl are warner which pumps the SER more. At some point there is a tipping point where the SER wins and that equation doesn’t work anymore. 

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Everything is a matter of degrees. But in essence yes. Our best snow pattern relies on a split flow with blocking over the top and a broad trough that directs waves at us from the TN valley. There is going to be some attempt at a SER in that long wave configuration. But the way it’s worked to our advantage in the past was if there was a cold antecedent airmass and blocking the SER was suppressed and the waves coming at us from the SW get shunted east. So we get this fetch of moisture coming at us over the cold but the storm gets forced to transfer under us. 
 

But what happens if you add more heat to all that. Waves coming in off the pacific have more energy and amplify more out west which pumps the SER more. The gulf and atl are warner which pumps the SER more. At some point there is a tipping point where the SER wins and that equation doesn’t work anymore. 

Everything amplifies now.  This is why here in NY we've lost alot of those weak overrunning type storms we used to get.  The waves now just become 988mb lows vs weak waves.

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, WVclimo said:

Long range OP ECMWF says “what SE ridge?”

Now that is a thing of beauty!! Wow

[stormy]

11 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Now that is a thing of beauty!! Wow

I could handle about 24 hrs. of that!

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, stormy said:

I could handle about 24 hrs. of that!

 Amen brother!!!

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya had to know an overreaction was gonna come out of that, haha

When I pull the plug on winter I make it 100% clear. But often I’m making a specific singular point and people take it on way too broad a way.  

[stormy]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When I pull the plug on winter I make it 100% clear. But often I’m making a specific singular point and people take it on way too broad a way.  

I pull the plug on winter on April 15 every year because I have received knee deep snows in the first 10 days of April during the past 50 years.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The 18z GFS is cutter after cutter. Polar blocking really weakened in the last 2 days, it's still there, but things are able to run underneath. 

It's starting to look like the longer range, after Jan 5th, is the better chance, maybe when the NAO is neutralizing after its bout to negative. Let's see if LR models (300+ hours) hold the -EPO in the next few days. 

[NorthArlington101]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The 18z GFS is cutter after cutter. Polar blocking really weakened in the last 2 days, it's still there, but things are able to run underneath. 

It's starting to look like the longer range, after Jan 5th, is the better chance, maybe when the NAO is neutralizing after its bout to negative. Let's see if LR models (300+ hours) hold the -EPO in the next few days. 

This tracks with the general consensus, unfortunately for me. I’m still interested seeing cutters roll through, especially since a EURO/GFS compromise would work out. Long way to go. 

[SnowGoose69]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The 18z GFS is cutter after cutting. Polar blocking really weakened in the last 2 days, it's still there, but things are able to run underneath. 

It's starting to look like the longer range, after Jan 5th, is the better chance, maybe when the NAO is neutralizing after its bout to negative. Let's see if LR models (300+ hours) hold the -EPO in the next few days. 

The tendency since mid November has been for ensembles to be rushing changes to the pattern by 5 days or so.  Remember 15 days back it was unanimous we'd torch by 12/21, instead its more 25-26 now, some of the previous changes were rushed too.  Not surprised to see it be more 1/8 vs 1/2 when things really might shift

[TSSN+]

16 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The 18z GFS is cutter after cutter. Polar blocking really weakened in the last 2 days, it's still there, but things are able to run underneath. 

It's starting to look like the longer range, after Jan 5th, is the better chance, maybe when the NAO is neutralizing after its bout to negative. Let's see if LR models (300+ hours) hold the -EPO in the next few days. 

The good pattern is always going to be 300+hrs. 

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The tendency since mid November has been for ensembles to be rushing changes to the pattern by 5 days or so.  Remember 15 days back it was unanimous we'd torch by 12/21, instead its more 25-26 now, some of the previous changes were rushed too.  Not surprised to see it be more 1/8 vs 1/2 when things really might shift

That's my take, too. I think we'll ultimately see a compromise between the GEFS and EPS/GEPS. Initially, cold moves down west, then a cutter or two pulls the cold east, and by the time we have a trackable threat it might be 1/5-1/7 or soon after (as opposed to 1/4 like we were thinking yesterday or the day before). 

Also, I'm not sure how durable this upcoming cold period will be. It's been the case for the last several years that we get mostly short-lived cold periods of a week to 10 days each. However, we still should get a trackable threat or two in that cold period just because it's January.

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

That's my take, too. I think we'll ultimately see a compromise between the GEFS and EPS/GEPS. Initially, cold moves down west, then a cutter or two pulls the cold east, and by the time we have a trackable threat it might be 1/5-1/7 or soon after (as opposed to 1/4 like we were thinking yesterday or the day before). 

Also, I'm not sure how durable this upcoming cold period will be. It's been the case for the last several years that we get mostly short-lived cold periods of a week to 10 days each. However, we still should get a trackable threat or two in that cold period just because it's January.

The La Nina is so weak and the PDO has dropped in intensity I am not so sure the idea we just go to a typical Nina late January and February pattern is going to work

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The 18z GFS is cutter after cutting. Polar blocking really weakened in the last 2 days, it's still there, but things are able to run underneath. 

It's starting to look like the longer range, after Jan 5th, is the better chance, maybe when the NAO is neutralizing after its bout to negative. Let's see if LR models (300+ hours) hold the -EPO in the next few days. 

The -EPO seems like the most certain feature to develop in the upcoming pattern. The exact state of the NAO has been the unknown imo. My wag is we see some transient -NAO periods going forward, but not a sustained NA block. That can work with a persistent EPO ridge and a bit of wave timing. Blocking in the NA was more favored last year and it never really materialized despite being persistently modeled in the LR. The state of the QBO and Solar argue against it this winter. Probably a little patience is required wrt the change in the h5 pattern to something more favorable, considering the modeled unfavorable/milder pattern hasn't even occurred yet.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS is cooler this run around the 5th.

[wasnow215]

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's not an overreaction. We know winters are slipping away in these parts.

Cyclical

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, wasnow215 said:

Cyclical

Maybe, and on a long enough timescale definitely. But for over 100 years it’s been going one direction. 

[Eskimo Joe]

34 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS is cooler this run around the 5th.

Negative temp anomalies focused on the TN Valley. That's something @Stormchaserchuck1and @psuhoffmanare big on.

[CAPE]

Jan 5-6 and again around the 8th or so look to be the 2 windows to monitor for a potential winter storm going forward. Sporadic signal but its there, esp on the GEFS. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

35 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Negative temp anomalies focused on the TN Valley. That's something @Stormchaserchuck1and @psuhoffmanare big on.

Only 3 ensemble members show snow though. The mean average looks like that because the cold front passages skew it, when mixed with warm members. 

Compared to earlier today, the GEFS is not nearly as cold in the long range. Last night and this morning it had heavy troughs focused over the Northeast. Now it dives troughs into the West coast and progresses them into the Midwest. It's still not warm here, but I like that cold trough look much better. 

His panel is a snapshot, what we need is a sustained trough there. This was the case yesterday but not today lol