January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

No signs of life on the 12z gfs 

If you're looking for discrete threats in the long range then you're barking up the wrong tree. This far out the ensembles are really the only thing that should warrant attention.

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If you're looking for discrete threats in the long range then you're barking up the wrong tree. This far out the ensembles are really the only thing that should warrant attention.

No I’m looking for cold air. Which there is none. Gefs pushing it back too 

[Prestige Worldwide]

the king says we are good to go still 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Prestige Worldwide said:

the king says we are good to go still 

Close enough at range but not our HECS from yesterday. Might be setting up a monster at 360 though. 

[T. August]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

No I’m looking for cold air. Which there is none. Gefs pushing it back too 

I mean it could be right but let’s not forget that 2 weeks ago Christmas was 55°. Now it’s possible some areas don’t get out of the 30s.

[psuhoffman]

I’m not saying this happens. But we’ve seen what the 12z gefs is showing several times.  A SER linking with the NAO. But this is different because we have a favorable pacific long wave configuration with a trough centered from Hawaii to just west of AK with a ridge bridge from AK to the NAO.  If that doesn’t work I don’t even know what we want for a big snowstorm anymore. 
 

If that happens I don’t want to hear “it’s the PDO or the pacific”. I suspect a big part of that is something else.  This isn’t complicated. The more heat you add the the equation the harder it is to suppress a SER from over the top. Additionally the warmer storms are coming off the pacific the more they are going to amplify faster out west and pump that SER downstream. That’s a pure “too much heat added to the equation” issue that won’t be fixed by any long wave pattern. 
 

That said given enough time I’d still take my chances that something comes off the pacific and doesn’t over amplify and cuts under the NS flow.  I’m not tossing any towel. This is just pointing something out. 

[MN Transplant]

56 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the Europeans are going to make the rest of the NWP community eat dust shortly:

 

 

I'm still skeptical about many of these pure AI models, and the paper itself isn't a slam dunk, but I did notice something else interesting in there:

 

Historically, t2m has proved extremely challenging to assimilate in a global physics-based weather model, with the ECMWF starting operational assimilation of t2m observations only in November 2024 (Ingleby et al., 2024). This led to significant improvements in short-range t2m forecasts. 

[DarkSharkWX]

[bncho]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not saying this happens. But we’ve seen what the 12z gefs is showing several times.  A SER linking with the NAO. But this is different because we have a favorable pacific long wave configuration with a trough centered from Hawaii to just west of AK with a ridge bridge from AK to the NAO.  If that doesn’t work I don’t even know what we want for a big snowstorm anymore. 
 

If that happens I don’t want to hear “it’s the PDO or the pacific”. I suspect a big part of that is something else.  This isn’t complicated. The more heat you add the the equation the harder it is to suppress a SER from over the top. Additionally the warmer storms are coming off the pacific the more they are going to amplify faster out west and pump that SER downstream. That’s a pure “too much heat added to the equation” issue that won’t be fixed by any long wave pattern. 
 

That said given enough time I’d still take my chances that something comes off the pacific and doesn’t over amplify and cuts under the NS flow.  I’m not tossing any towel. This is just pointing something out. 

Stop saying the facts, I’m getting Feb 2024 PTSD right now.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not saying this happens. But we’ve seen what the 12z gefs is showing several times.  A SER linking with the NAO. But this is different because we have a favorable pacific long wave configuration with a trough centered from Hawaii to just west of AK with a ridge bridge from AK to the NAO.  If that doesn’t work I don’t even know what we want for a big snowstorm anymore. 
 

If that happens I don’t want to hear “it’s the PDO or the pacific”. I suspect a big part of that is something else.  This isn’t complicated. The more heat you add the the equation the harder it is to suppress a SER from over the top. Additionally the warmer storms are coming off the pacific the more they are going to amplify faster out west and pump that SER downstream. That’s a pure “too much heat added to the equation” issue that won’t be fixed by any long wave pattern. 
 

That said given enough time I’d still take my chances that something comes off the pacific and doesn’t over amplify and cuts under the NS flow.  I’m not tossing any towel. This is just pointing something out. 

Agreed. If we fail with this setup then we're probably cooked for any big storm in future winters.

[psuhoffman]

Don’t over react to my post. I was making a single point about a phenomenon that’s been impacting our snowfall a lot recently. I did not say we’re doomed or this pattern can’t work.  

[frd]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not saying this happens. But we’ve seen what the 12z gefs is showing several times.  A SER linking with the NAO. But this is different because we have a favorable pacific long wave configuration with a trough centered from Hawaii to just west of AK with a ridge bridge from AK to the NAO.  If that doesn’t work I don’t even know what we want for a big snowstorm anymore. 
 

If that happens I don’t want to hear “it’s the PDO or the pacific”. I suspect a big part of that is something else.  This isn’t complicated. The more heat you add the the equation the harder it is to suppress a SER from over the top. Additionally the warmer storms are coming off the pacific the more they are going to amplify faster out west and pump that SER downstream. That’s a pure “too much heat added to the equation” issue that won’t be fixed by any long wave pattern. 
 

That said given enough time I’d still take my chances that something comes off the pacific and doesn’t over amplify and cuts under the NS flow.  I’m not tossing any towel. This is just pointing something out. 

 

The warm Atlantic has been mentioned in this possible connection. 

The NAO block the is forecasted may very well linked with the SER diminshing the benefits of the NAO block.  Hence the favorable patterm in the long range never happens, but that is too soon to worry about.  

  

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Agreed. If we fail with this setup then we're probably cooked for any big storm in future winters.

Depends how we fail. If we get a trough in the east but we just get unlucky with wave spacing and timing that’s ok. Sucks but doesn’t say much about future chances. That happens. 
 

But if we have a pacific Nino look with a central pac trough and an epo to nao ridge bridge w split flow and the stj waves all amplify too much out west and the SER can’t be squashed then I don’t even know what to root for if we want a big snowstorm. Yea sure we could root for a typical Nina look and hope to luck into waves like we’ve been trudging through the last 8 years but what’s our path to a legit big snowstorm cause that ain’t it.  
 

Our big snow look relies on a split flow with blocking over the top. Waves come off the pac and slide east under the blocked flow. But if too much heat gets added to that setup and there becomes a feedback loop where the pacific waves come in and amplify too much out west which feeds into the SER which is also getting fed by a warmer Gulf…well other than the pacific and gulf cooling what’s the solution. And I’ve seen no one saying they expect the SST trends to reverse anytime soon. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

 

The warm Atlantic has been mentioned in this possible connection. 

The NAO block the is forecasted may very well linked with the SER diminshing the benefits of the NAO block.  Hence the favorable patterm in the long range never happens, but that is too soon to worry about.  

  

I mean, that linkage has been fairly common in recent Ninas. To say that scenario wasn't/isnt in the back of many of our minds that have been here a while and tracking global h5 tendencies would be fibbing, because that's one of the very few ways we would fail with those high lat looks. I'm with psu, no towel throwing, just fact spitting.

[bncho]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not saying this happens. But we’ve seen what the 12z gefs is showing several times.  A SER linking with the NAO. But this is different because we have a favorable pacific long wave configuration with a trough centered from Hawaii to just west of AK with a ridge bridge from AK to the NAO.  If that doesn’t work I don’t even know what we want for a big snowstorm anymore. 
 

If that happens I don’t want to hear “it’s the PDO or the pacific”. I suspect a big part of that is something else.  This isn’t complicated. The more heat you add the the equation the harder it is to suppress a SER from over the top. Additionally the warmer storms are coming off the pacific the more they are going to amplify faster out west and pump that SER downstream. That’s a pure “too much heat added to the equation” issue that won’t be fixed by any long wave pattern. 
 

That said given enough time I’d still take my chances that something comes off the pacific and doesn’t over amplify and cuts under the NS flow.  I’m not tossing any towel. This is just pointing something out. 

Let me just clarify:

You’re saying that the pattern isn’t the issue, it’s just an issue of we’re too warm?

[frd]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I mean, that linkage has been fairly common in recent Ninas. To say that scenario wasn't/isnt in the back of many of our minds that have been here a while and tracking global h5 tendencies would be fibbing, because that's one of the very few ways we would fail with those high lat looks. I'm with psu, no towel throwing, just fact spitting.

Yes, but as pointed out by @psuhoffman , we do have the Pac in our favor this go around, ( minus the feedback loop ) but still a concern, don't mean to be a Debbie  Downer.   

[Terpeast]

Now we can’t use the extremely negative PDO as an “excuse”.

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Now we can’t use the extremely negative PDO as an “excuse”.

Maybe we need an outright +PDO to have any chance anymore? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

Yes, but as pointed out by @psuhoffman , we do have the Pac in our favor this go around, ( minus the feedback loop ) but still a concern, don't mean to be a Debbie  Downer.   

Who's to say how long we hold on to the favorable pac side? That decides to throw a wrench and its a whole other ballgame. 

[WVclimo]

Long range OP ECMWF says “what SE ridge?”

[frd]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Now we can’t use the extremely negative PDO as an “excuse”.

 

What an amazing rise ! 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Maybe we need an outright +PDO to have any chance anymore? 

Since we had such a fast PDO rise, I’d say we’ve had a +PDO atmospheric pattern and it’s taking time to make an imprint on the SSTs. But it’s still an uphill battle that becomes less and less the longer we hold this pattern. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Polar blocking really lost steam on todays 12z GEFS. It's a weak signal in the long range. Last February the same thing happened, people were comparing to 95-96, but in those maps we have 200-300dm patterns, and what the long range models are showing is only 150-180dm right now. Allows other patterns to happen underneath of it. 

The NAO turning very negative right after the +EPO CONUS ridge now happens with a -PNA

And although we still have -nao/-epo in the long range, this is a weak signal... oranges and light red. I would not be comparing to Jan 5th 1996, lol

[Maestrobjwa]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t over react to my post. I was making a single point about a phenomenon that’s been impacting our snowfall a lot recently. I did not say we’re doomed or this pattern can’t work.  

Ya had to know an overreaction was gonna come out of that, haha

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya had to know an overreaction was gonna come out of that, haha

It's not an overreaction. We know winters are slipping away in these parts.

[bncho]

Praying the EPS is right.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Polar blocking really lost steam on todays 12z GEFS. It's a weak signal in the long range. Last February the same thing happened, people were comparing to 95-96, but in those maps we have 200-300dm patterns, and what the long range models are showing is only 150-180dm right now. Allows other patterns to happen underneath of it. 

The NAO turning very negative right after the +EPO CONUS ridge now happens with a -PNA

And although we still have -nao/-epo in the long range, this is a weak signal... oranges and light red. I would not be comparing to Jan 5th 1996, lol

that isn’t a weak blocking signal at all for 10+ days out. not every block is going to be +300m at that range 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, bncho said:

Praying everything but the GFS OP is right.

fixed. even the GEFS becomes highly favorable after the 5th 

[Terpeast]

Still in wait and see mode. 

GEFS as depicted will be a cutter on Jan 3, and then *maybe* a follow up wave that slides south of us similar to Jan 2022. Not the big dog we’re looking for, but it still leaves a path to modest success here. 

[Weather Will]

WB SST Atlantic basin anomalies don't look horrible right now.