January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[psuhoffman]

2009 was one of my top analogs and ended badly for us despite a pretty good pattern on the Atlantic side for a chunk of the winter. 

but the biggest difference and why I started to think maybe this year has more potential than I was giving it, the pacific. The guidance is showing almost the opposite pattern there and way closer to a typical Nino than Nina look. If that is legit the bar is a lot higher. The Nina pac with central pac ridge and NW Canada trough is a severe limiting factor on our chances even with blocking. It doesn’t matter that we are in cold enso of the pacific doesn’t actually have a Nina long wave pattern. Similarly to how recent ninos don’t help when the pattern never couples with a canonical Nino configuration. 

[CAPE]

0z GEFS has an indication for a storm on the 6th that tracks south of us and off the coast with some precip up this way but most stays south.

I like the look at the end of the run for a potential storm a couple days later- spilt flow and some STJ contribution with moisture coming northward from the gulf towards the TN valley. Cold in place, broad trough with slightly SW to NE oriented height lines. Still well out in the LR but good to see some hints of southern stream moisture getting involved with the cold.

 

[Weather Will]

Lot to sort out the next two weeks, but the advice to ignore the globals outside five days is sound.  Big differences between WB 6Z GEFS (first two pictures) and WB 6Z GFS.

[brooklynwx99]

yeah the GEFS looks good with the 4-6th timeframe. juiced SS vort potentially running into confluence... the thing is that you can have a cutter if 1) the SS vort cuts off for whatever reason or 2) if there isn't sufficient confluence. but every setup has its fail modes

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Lot to sort out the next two weeks, but the advice to ignore the globals outside five days is sound.  Big differences between WB 6Z GEFS (first two pictures) and WB 6Z GFS.

You don't 'ignore' the global operational runs outside of day 5. They are a tool same as the ensembles are.  The trick is to know how to use them. In the h5 maps above the general pattern is actually very similar, but one is a higher resolution op run and the other is a mean constructed from 30 differently perturbed lower resolution ens members, each potentially with differences in timing and location of features.

[Ralph Wiggum]

It is encouraging that the looks on the ens have not degraded and have even shown improvements. Moving up in time as well instead of the usual can-kicking. High lats are a thing of beauty, even 'mint' as some have called it.

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

0z GEFS has an indication for a storm on the 6th that tracks south of us and off the coast with some precip up this way but most stays south.

I like the look at the end of the run for a potential storm a couple days later- spilt flow and some STJ contribution with moisture coming northward from the gulf towards the TN valley. Cold in place, broad trough with slightly SW to NE oriented height lines. Still well out in the LR but good to see some hints of southern stream moisture getting involved with the cold.

 

I don't  have the fancy pay maps (my extra $ goes towards those fancy craft beers) but on TT the 6z gefs is better this time period. 3rd-4th storm the euro op had as a fantasy sets the stage for this followup wave around the 7th give or take. We'll see 

[WxUSAF]

 

[baltosquid]

Of course I’m traveling on the 4th and will not be back until the 11th. Hopefully there’s a welcome home storm in the cards (after touching down of course).

[bncho]

A swing and a hit from the Euro AI.

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

You don't 'ignore' the global operational runs outside of day 5. They are a tool same as the ensembles are.  The trick is to know how to use them. In the h5 maps above the general pattern is actually very similar, but one is a higher resolution op run and the other is a mean constructed from 30 differently perturbed lower resolution ens members, each potentially with differences in timing and location of features.

My observations are that the globals outside five days may be helpful to see general trends but not specific storm tracks.  If the ensembles show support for a storm track on the globals, that gets my attention.
 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It is encouraging that the looks on the ens have not degraded and have even shown improvements. Moving up in time as well instead of the usual can-kicking. High lats are a thing of beauty, even 'mint' as some have called it.

Mmmm, who doesn't like MINT at this time of year!  Myself, I love the Holiday mint M&Ms!!  Stock up on those every December!

[BristowWx]

35 minutes ago, bncho said:

A swing and a hit from the Euro AI.

a quick hit it would seem from an OBX slider.  just based on that map I don't see what would turn it up the coast.  nice to see the cold press however.  

[Eskimo Joe]

37 minutes ago, bncho said:

A swing and a hit from the Euro AI.

That would be great. Lowland folks wouldn't have to worry about temps and the northerners would get their usual jackpot band. Then big high settles in and we have cold on snowpack.

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That would be great. Lowland folks wouldn't have to worry about temps and the northerners would get their usual jackpot band. Then big high settles in and we have cold on snowpack.

whats the date stamp on that?  

[bncho]

Another hit from the Euro AI that may briefly mix with rain or sleet in DC and SE areas.

312 hrs out.

 

 

[bncho]

 

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

whats the date stamp on that?  

330 hrs

[87storms]

I recommend not looking at the 6z gfs.  

12z is more important.

[WxUSAF]

John is not BAMwx when it comes to hype

[Eskimo Joe]

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

John is not BAMwx when it comes to hype

This is exactly what you want to see as the lead in for a warning level snowfall event for the majority of the subforum. If I had to be picky on this look, I would like to see the lobe of the polar vortex tilted a bit more on our side of the globe, closer to Hudson Bay than the Arctic Circle.

If we get to New Year's Eve and we see this potential still there, and not stuck in the D14+ wonderland, then it might be cause for legit optimism. 

[Chris78]

40 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

John is not BAMwx when it comes to hype

It's nice seeing below normal 850s and 2m temps with above normal precip on the GEFS as we get into January.  That's been a rarity in these parts.

[WxUSAF]

34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

John is not BAMwx when it comes to hype

Tomer response. I’m more imaginative than him, but he’s very much not into hype either.

 

[bncho]

Shit. Everybody’s hype so it’s going to look really damn good and then all the ensembles are going to collapse on New Year’s eve. 

[frd]

First time in a million years I have seen the AO drop like this heading into prime climo in our area, and right after the Winter solstice as well. Past examples of this timing had the cold locking in for a while,  combined with storminess.   

Cold temps arriving with likely odds in early Jan., along with signals that support SECS.  Watch the -AO drop even before the EOY. 

 

 

[TSSN+]

11 minutes ago, bncho said:

Shit. Everybody’s hype so it’s going to look really damn good and then all the ensembles are going to collapse on New Year’s eve. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

11 minutes ago, bncho said:

Shit. Everybody’s hype so it’s going to look really damn good and then all the ensembles are going to collapse on New Year’s eve. 

If this happens then it would be a complete failure across the board for the reliable NWP (Euro, Canadian, GFS, NAEFS).

[DarkSharkWX]

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like the Europeans are going to make the rest of the NWP community eat dust shortly:

 

 

[TSSN+]

No signs of life on the 12z gfs 

[bncho]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

No signs of life on the 12z gfs 

GFS has been screwing us over lately. Hopefully the one of the MECS/HECS Euro runs can come true.