Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....


Weather Will
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Isn't that what we want to start seeing, though?  Some really nice, even wacky solutions showing up in the deterministic and individual ensemble members out at longer range.  Then of course hopefully hone in on a real one as it gets closer in time.  I thought that was a problem last year, with all the drool-worthy looks for February in the extra-extended ensembles and such.  It looked great on those plots, but we never really saw the "big, wild hits" show up, even from individual ensemble members.  I think it was @Bob Chill who pointed that out, saying that while it looked great on those extended means, he wasn't too thrilled with what was "under the hood."

Adreed.  With as many op runs we see in a 24hr period I would think there would be a signal.  Even if its scattershot.  I remember the same thing last year.  Beautiful h5 maps in the lr but we couldn't score even digital snow on the op runs.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I don’t think it means much more, but I think this is the first truly wild Euro OP run of the year. Helps that it runs to 360 now. 

FWIW, despite the flak it gets these days, euro has been the best model this fall in terms of verification scores particularly the ensembles. Not saying the 12z op is correct about the HECS, but it’s a good sign that it’s even showing it as one possibility among a wide range of possibilities. We didn’t even see that last Feb before the good H5 looks collapsed. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Does it though?

Social media is already lighting up from that run. 

It helps produce more wild results - don’t think that’s a good thing! Though some of us love our digital blue. 

12 minutes ago, bncho said:

The Euro AI just shows hit after hit after hit.

I don’t have WxBell because I’m actually poor.

IMG_0148.jpeg

The AI Euro hasn’t scored any coups from its parent but nice to see them on the same page with that threat window. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Imagine if this supposed epic pattern in the long range is another head fake and we just flip to SER.

Sounds about right. I don’t believe we are going to get a good pattern for one second. I’ll believe when I see it happening. 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 3
  • 100% 1
  • sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Umm, let's toss this run shall we. Trof out west developing, ser forming late in the run. Must be wrong :yikes:

That's not a SER, its a transient h5 height rise out in front of a deep/ broad trough progressing eastward. Roll that forward a day or 2 with that HL look...

  • Like 6
  • 100% 1
  • clap 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...