January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS extended, with temperatures below normal we are in the game for January. Precip. Looks near normal for the month.

If you are looking for the peak precipitation period looks like the 7 day period ending the 23rd.

 

[Weather Will]

WB latest GEFS extended brings in the eastern trough and cooler temps quicker this run going into January.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I continue to love the -EPO look from Jan 1st onward.. 

temp correlation

precip correlation

Net temp+precip gives this our best index state for snowfall by >30%

Right now models showing close to a 2 standard deviation -EPO. Long range models are very flexible to current conditions, so I would like to see this pattern hold on modeling past the Christmas major +EPO/+NAO period coming up in a few days. 

[Weather Will]

To reiterate above, rather than can kicking we continue to get stronger signal of colder temperatures as we move through the first and second week of January compared to yesterday's run.

[Heisy]

Soooo…. When was the last time this type of map worked out???

Dont worry about specifics. You know that. It’s very encouraging. It can all go wrong and we can get screwed again of course, but I’m really happy with everything headed into January. All you can ask for at this stage.


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[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Dont worry about specifics. You know that. It’s very encouraging. It can all go wrong and we can get screwed again of course, but I’m really happy with everything headed into January. All you can ask for at this stage.


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Agreed. It’s also a good sign that things are moving forward in time and the progged cold period is at least holding in length or even expanding. Still can get rug pulled a la Feb 2024, and there are no individual threats that are trackable at the moment, so it’s prudent to be cautious. 

[brooklynwx99]

@psuhoffman i know you had mentioned 1996 before… look at this lmao the similarities are uncanny 

obviously not calling for anything like that, but the N ATL blocking dipole, -EPO and split flow with active STJ is begging for something big

[Eskimo Joe]

27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@psuhoffman i know you had mentioned 1996 before… look at this lmao the similarities are uncanny 

obviously not calling for anything like that, but the N ATL blocking dipole, -EPO and split flow with active STJ is begging for something big

It's reassuring to see what appears to be a lobe of the polar vortex drifting over Hudson Bay. Seeing 500 mb heights crash on our side of the globe is great.

[bncho]

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@psuhoffman i know you had mentioned 1996 before… look at this lmao the similarities are uncanny 

obviously not calling for anything like that, but the N ATL blocking dipole, -EPO and split flow with active STJ is begging for something big

CREATE THE THREAD.

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@psuhoffman i know you had mentioned 1996 before… look at this lmao the similarities are uncanny 

obviously not calling for anything like that, but the N ATL blocking dipole, -EPO and split flow with active STJ is begging for something big

It’s a really good pattern with ridiculous upside which is rare in a cold enso. The similarities to 1996 with the current look on guidance shows this perhaps has more upside that we would typically look for in a cold enso year but it’s important to remember we do get these high potential setups and they don’t come together and produce sometimes. Even if the pattern on guidance is legit we could strike out. But I’m encouraged. I don’t throw around 1996 lightly. Usually I dismiss the possibility of that kind of repeat pointing out just how much of an outlier it is.  But I can’t ignore what’s staring us in the face and the potential that exists. 

[bncho]

49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s a really good pattern with ridiculous upside which is rare in a cold enso. The similarities to 1996 with the current look on guidance shows this perhaps has more upside that we would typically look for in a cold enso year but it’s important to remember we do get these high potential setups and they don’t come together and produce sometimes. Even if the pattern on guidance is legit we could strike out. But I’m encouraged. I don’t throw around 1996 lightly. Usually I dismiss the possibility of that kind of repeat pointing out just how much of an outlier it is.  But I can’t ignore what’s staring us in the face and the potential that exists. 

I completely agree with you—it’s uncommon to see a setup like this in a cold ENSO year, and the similarities to 1996 are hard to ignore, as it’s like a 1 in 100 chance. The potential is definitely there for something big, and I’m encouraged too, but I know that even the best patterns don’t always deliver. I really hate cold and dry. There’s also a February 2024 flop possibility, though it looks more unlikely than Feb 2024 did.
 

This isn’t something to dismiss as a fluke. The models have had their grips strengthen when it comes to cold and snow. Guidance is showing these promising signs. It’d be prudent to accept the possibility of a swing and a miss, but I do think cautious optimism is good. I’m definitely keeping a close eye on how things evolve. It could be something memorable if it all comes together. Maybe we can even get the three feet of snow Terpeast mentions.

[LongRanger]

haven't seen this promising an upcoming pattern in a long time, my eye is on the Jan 10-12 period to cash in on the cold

[KAOS]

I am your father.

[ravensrule]

I am your mother. Lay off the alcohol.