January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS extended, with temperatures below normal we are in the game for January. Precip. Looks near normal for the month.

If you are looking for the peak precipitation period looks like the 7 day period ending the 23rd.

 

[Weather Will]

WB latest GEFS extended brings in the eastern trough and cooler temps quicker this run going into January.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I continue to love the -EPO look from Jan 1st onward.. 

temp correlation

precip correlation

Net temp+precip gives this our best index state for snowfall by >30%

Right now models showing close to a 2 standard deviation -EPO. Long range models are very flexible to current conditions, so I would like to see this pattern hold on modeling past the Christmas major +EPO/+NAO period coming up in a few days. 

[Weather Will]

To reiterate above, rather than can kicking we continue to get stronger signal of colder temperatures as we move through the first and second week of January compared to yesterday's run.

[Heisy]

Soooo…. When was the last time this type of map worked out???

Dont worry about specifics. You know that. It’s very encouraging. It can all go wrong and we can get screwed again of course, but I’m really happy with everything headed into January. All you can ask for at this stage.


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[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Dont worry about specifics. You know that. It’s very encouraging. It can all go wrong and we can get screwed again of course, but I’m really happy with everything headed into January. All you can ask for at this stage.


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Agreed. It’s also a good sign that things are moving forward in time and the progged cold period is at least holding in length or even expanding. Still can get rug pulled a la Feb 2024, and there are no individual threats that are trackable at the moment, so it’s prudent to be cautious. 

[brooklynwx99]

@psuhoffman i know you had mentioned 1996 before… look at this lmao the similarities are uncanny 

obviously not calling for anything like that, but the N ATL blocking dipole, -EPO and split flow with active STJ is begging for something big

[Eskimo Joe]

27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@psuhoffman i know you had mentioned 1996 before… look at this lmao the similarities are uncanny 

obviously not calling for anything like that, but the N ATL blocking dipole, -EPO and split flow with active STJ is begging for something big

It's reassuring to see what appears to be a lobe of the polar vortex drifting over Hudson Bay. Seeing 500 mb heights crash on our side of the globe is great.

[bncho]

33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@psuhoffman i know you had mentioned 1996 before… look at this lmao the similarities are uncanny 

obviously not calling for anything like that, but the N ATL blocking dipole, -EPO and split flow with active STJ is begging for something big

CREATE THE THREAD.

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@psuhoffman i know you had mentioned 1996 before… look at this lmao the similarities are uncanny 

obviously not calling for anything like that, but the N ATL blocking dipole, -EPO and split flow with active STJ is begging for something big

It’s a really good pattern with ridiculous upside which is rare in a cold enso. The similarities to 1996 with the current look on guidance shows this perhaps has more upside that we would typically look for in a cold enso year but it’s important to remember we do get these high potential setups and they don’t come together and produce sometimes. Even if the pattern on guidance is legit we could strike out. But I’m encouraged. I don’t throw around 1996 lightly. Usually I dismiss the possibility of that kind of repeat pointing out just how much of an outlier it is.  But I can’t ignore what’s staring us in the face and the potential that exists. 

[bncho]

49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s a really good pattern with ridiculous upside which is rare in a cold enso. The similarities to 1996 with the current look on guidance shows this perhaps has more upside that we would typically look for in a cold enso year but it’s important to remember we do get these high potential setups and they don’t come together and produce sometimes. Even if the pattern on guidance is legit we could strike out. But I’m encouraged. I don’t throw around 1996 lightly. Usually I dismiss the possibility of that kind of repeat pointing out just how much of an outlier it is.  But I can’t ignore what’s staring us in the face and the potential that exists. 

I completely agree with you—it’s uncommon to see a setup like this in a cold ENSO year, and the similarities to 1996 are hard to ignore, as it’s like a 1 in 100 chance. The potential is definitely there for something big, and I’m encouraged too, but I know that even the best patterns don’t always deliver. I really hate cold and dry. There’s also a February 2024 flop possibility, though it looks more unlikely than Feb 2024 did.
 

This isn’t something to dismiss as a fluke. The models have had their grips strengthen when it comes to cold and snow. Guidance is showing these promising signs. It’d be prudent to accept the possibility of a swing and a miss, but I do think cautious optimism is good. I’m definitely keeping a close eye on how things evolve. It could be something memorable if it all comes together. Maybe we can even get the three feet of snow Terpeast mentions.

[LongRanger]

haven't seen this promising an upcoming pattern in a long time, my eye is on the Jan 10-12 period to cash in on the cold

[KAOS]

I am your father.

[ravensrule]

I am your mother. Lay off the alcohol. 

[Weather Will]

Weekend after NY's may be our first period to watch.  WB 0Z EURO suite is mostly offshore but there are a few hits including the AI.

[Weather Will]

All of the hits east or south are for the post New Year weekend period. About five of 50 members so far.  I will be watching for trends. (WB 0Z EPS).

 

 

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

All of the hits east or south are for the post New Year weekend period. About five of 50 members so far.  I will be watching for trends. (WB 0Z EPS).

Why are you posting total snowfall maps if you are focusing on a specific period?

This depicts the EPS mean snowfall for the weekend after new Years-

[CAPE]

Just now, Weather Will said:

I tried to explain that only five members were hits.

Use the 6-hour member snow total panels for that purpose. A 24 hour would be better but not an option. Just go through several in succession and count the hits for that period, and include that in a post. You don't have to post the all the maps.

[CAPE]

What can be gleaned from the ensembles at this point is a general increase for chances of frozen for the MA maybe as early as the 3rd. There are some hints on recent runs, but not seeing a notable signal for a discrete event yet. That is beyond day 10 on current runs, so plenty of spread/uncertainty.

[Terpeast]

The 3rd is 14 days away, discrete threats aren’t going to pop up on in agreement across models with that much lead time. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Terpeast said:

The 3rd is 14 days away, discrete threats aren’t going to pop up on in agreement across models with that much lead time. 

IMO, would much rather have a series of light to moderate events that doesn't wash the blocking away, in lieu of one big hit that melts off in 3 days.

[CAPE]

Just now, Terpeast said:

The 3rd is 14 days away, discrete threats aren’t going to pop up on in agreement across models with that much lead time. 

Exactly. Thus posting snow maps is even more useless than normal.

[Bob Chill]

Kinda hard to identify windows/threats until the storm around nye/nyd that all guidance agrees on in some fashion moves through and down stream. Blocking is building before that but from what I see, that storm is what solidifies blocked flow.

I've seen a lot of fantasy ops showing both a closed epo and nao ridge concurrently. Ens def support the idea centering the highest mean height in the same places but I honestly can't remember seeing dual features like that in real time. Will be fun to watch happen. These are the types of features that can run a cycle and not hit and run. My gut says it will be a cycle and it will probably run 30-45 days. Plenty of history there but gotta get started first before worrying about how long lol. 

I really don't see any chance of a storm before the 5th of Jan so I'm not going to get involved in any discrete talk unless it's mid range. I do see a storm window developing between the 5th-10th. Lots of little clues showing up and it fits how blocking cycles usually play out. You know.... rain then cold and dry then maybe a little sumpin sumpin. It's prime climo for flawed setups. Especially west tracks. With @ 50/50, cold highs don't run away. They just hang and rot. Perfect for CAD stuff. Get a good track and you have northerly mids feeding instead of southerlies scouring. 

We may fail in every direction but I've become pretty confident in some accum snow not too far away. We'll wait and see as always 

[CAPE]

 Guidance is advertising a much more favorable h5 pattern for early Jan with colder air available, but we have a 'dead' period to get through. I am at the point of boredom drooling over h5 maps though. Over the next few days I will be looking for persistence with the finer details. And watching plenty of football.

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 Guidance is advertising a much more favorable h5 pattern for early Jan with colder air available, but we have a 'dead' period to get through. I am at the point of boredom drooling over h5 maps though. Over the next few days I will be looking for persistence with the finer details. And watching plenty of football.

Shoveling feet and feet of H5 maps. 

[Ji]

Shoveling feet and feet of H5 maps. 

lol

[ravensrule]

32 minutes ago, CAPE said:

 Guidance is advertising a much more favorable h5 pattern for early Jan with colder air available, but we have a 'dead' period to get through. I am at the point of boredom drooling over h5 maps though. Over the next few days I will be looking for persistence with the finer details. And watching plenty of football.

If only they had football on Tuesday, I would be happier than a pig in shit. 

[benjammin]

We're always shoveling something on this board...

[CAPE]

54 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

If only they had football on Tuesday, I would be happier than a pig in shit. 

 I think the Hawaii bowl is on Christmas eve. If one is desperate for a football game lol.