January: Medium/ Long Range: May the Force be with Us....

[Weather Will]

Will January 2025 deliver?!!!! WB 0Z 20th EPS extended for January

[NorthArlington101]

Looong range GFS cooks up a storm on my personal target days (Jan 4-6) that verbatim slides south and doesn’t seem too far from making the New Years storm an option too. Rooting for an active first week of 2025.

[brooklynwx99]

well defined trend on the GEFS to develop the AK ridge sooner and remove the trough from the SW

[Ralph Wiggum]

Miller B bomb just misses right after NY but the followup system around the 6th just misses a full phase beast. Going to be fun tracking soon!

[Ralph Wiggum]

Nina meets Nino. Active NS and juicy STJ, little reflection of a SER to keep things from sliding:

[stormy]

It's nice to see this phasing at 336 on the latest GFS.  Ralph beat me to it a little but I was on the way!

[Terpeast]

PDO is now “only” -1

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

PDO is now “only” -1

“only” -1 is MUCH better than “only” -3. 

[bncho]

12z GFS reminds me a lil bit of the Jan 3, 2022 event.

[SnowLover22]

20 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

PDO is now “only” -1

I was hoping we get there by Jan 1st so this is better than I expected. I know PSU said getting above that number puts the better analogs in play.

[brooklynwx99]

EPS is actually trending better, somehow 

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is actually trending better, somehow 

Somebody should create a thread for the Jan 4-6, 2025 blizzard right now. We can manifest it into existence.

[IronTy]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

Somebody should create a thread for the Jan 4-6, 2025 blizzard right now. We can manifest it into existence.

You can thank me for that.  You can call this the "Wayne Dyer Storm"

 

 

 

[cbmclean]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is actually trending better, somehow 

Trough axis shifting West, to be less off the shore.  Not bad 

[stormy]

29 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Trough axis shifting West, to be less off the shore.  Not bad 

 

29 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Trough axis shifting West, to be less off the shore.  Not bad 

Lets hope that trend keeps shifting west a few more hundred miles. .

[Ji]

Nina meets Nino. Active NS and juicy STJ, little reflection of a SER to keep things from sliding:

I need snow to meet grass or none of this matters

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

PDO is now “only” -1

That was my threshold that would make a better outcome “possible”. If you look at all the anomalous snowy cold enso years some are slightly negative, but none are in that -2 or -3 range we were hanging out in.  At the time I said it I didn’t think there was much chance we would get anywhere near neutral by January but here we are. 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Trough axis shifting West, to be less off the shore.  Not bad 

That is what we lacked yesterday the storm track was too far east for us. 

[87storms]

26 minutes ago, Ji said:

I need snow to meet grass or none of this matters

And no blade shall be visible.  LIght snow is acceptable in December.  In January, we up the ante.

[Terpeast]

MJO rmm forecasts seem to be trending away from an immediate reload in 4, extending time outside of the warm phases to about 3 weeks instead of 2. 

I’ll check the hollmover charts later, too

[Weather Will]

I know this is a control run, but the latest WB EPS extended run is the best I have seen all winter so far.... not only for the amount over us but that we are not on the  southern edge.  

[bncho]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I know this is a control run, but the latest WB EPS extended run is the best I have seen all winter so far.... not only for the amount over us but that we are not on the  southern edge.  

1996 redux incoming lol.

[WVclimo]

19 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I know this is a control run, but the latest WB EPS extended run is the best I have seen all winter so far.... not only for the amount over us but that we are not on the  southern edge.  

That’s more than double the amount of the annual record for Savannah, GA.

[Solution Man]

22 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

That’s more than double the amount of the annual record for Savannah, GA.

But, how much for Short Pump?

[Kevin Reilly]

53 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I know this is a control run, but the latest WB EPS extended run is the best I have seen all winter so far.... not only for the amount over us but that we are not on the  southern edge.  

Soooo…. When was the last time this type of map worked out???

[Ji]

funny thing is JB went warm and snowless this winter and this winter actually has a chance to produce something

[Ji]

29 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Soooo…. When was the last time this type of map worked out???

2014

[TSSN+]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

I know this is a control run, but the latest WB EPS extended run is the best I have seen all winter so far.... not only for the amount over us but that we are not on the  southern edge.  

Better chance GA/SC see snow before we do lol 

[87storms]

18z says “you will wait”.

[hstorm]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

2014

BC