Region Wide Christmas Eve Clipper Potential

[dryslot]

We’re going to wring out all available moisture into fluff for this one.

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That we can bank on. Or a perfect track rainer.

But, for the purposes of this Christmas, just getting some flakes region wide that makes it feel festive will do.

I’m not old by any stretch, but I’ve learned to not take these holiday seasons for granted. My dad who loved snow happened to be here back in 2021 when we had a white Christmas. Must’ve been his first one in about 20 years iirc. He was gone a few days later. A wintry landscape during the holidays will always hold a special meaning for me. 

Yeah my mom passed from cancer February 22, 2022. A mixed bag came through the night before she passed, as we(herself and all of her children)watched “What about Bob” a family favorite movie. The next morning was brilliant and icy with the winter sun illuminating everything. She passed that afternoon. A winter landscape harkens bitter sweet feels for sure. Miss her.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

Yeah my mom passed from cancer February 22, 2022. A mixed bag came through the night before she passed, as we(herself and all of her children)watched “What about Bob” a family favorite movie. The next morning was brilliant and icy with the winter sun illuminating everything. She passed that afternoon. A winter landscape harkens bitter sweet feels for sure. Miss her.

Great movie, but sorry for your loss.

[HoarfrostHubb]

If you have humidifier, turn it up to full

[DJln491]

23 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We’re going to wring out all available moisture into fluff for this one.

I think I can grab an inch, as long as the ratios are around 100:1 

[jbenedet]

It’s a 1020 surface “low” pressure  
 

The system is also dampening as it traverses our region….

I think a coating will be max in the high population locations.

[jbenedet]

Looks like a few flakes for Boston/southeast.

Radar decay look for many in eastern areas. 

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Looks like a few flakes for Boston/southeast.

Radar decay look for many in eastern areas. 

Yeah one of my METs in CT was saying that Western and Central part of CT might see dusting to an inch, but once it gets past there it would pretty much dry out for the eastern part of the state.

[dendrite]

I really need one more tick south to get into the 1-3” here. There’s that initial finger of fronto that pushes through and then the lower level dry slot for SNE and most of CNE before the fropa approaches. 

Best accums will be north of that dry nose moving W to E  

 

 

[tamarack]

16 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

It’s a 1020 surface “low” pressure  
 

The system is also dampening as it traverses our region….

I think a coating will be max in the high population locations.

Not necessarily a snow killer - some of my comments on the 26.5" storm in 1984 at Fort Kent.  It brought the depth to 65", easily the tallest I've recorded.

Storm of March 14-15:  FK schools released at noon, in 3"/hr SN++, all home safely.

Bar. 30.40 at start, 30.05 end.  CAR: 29.0, BGR 22.2", AUG 18.3", PWM:15.5"

The school comment illustrates why Fort Kent lost only 1.5 days to snow in our 10 years there.   Some FK students lived 25-30 miles away, in Allagash or Winterville.  Mostly flat going to the first, lots of hills to reach the 2nd.
The full day came on Feb 6 that same year when a storm forecast of 1-3 verified at 18" overnight and the parking lots couldn't be plowed in time.

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/gilsimmons/status/1871193028628812181?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[CoastalWx]

dustings. 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like Cape and maybe ern PYM county get more moods snows Christmas Day. Sort of a yore stretch for them. 

[PWMan]

29 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I really need one more tick south to get into the 1-3” here. There’s that initial finger of fronto that pushes through and then the lower level dry slot for SNE and most of CNE before the fropa approaches. 

Best accums will be north of that dry nose moving W to E  

 

 

GYX talked about that dry nose this morning. Could put us at the low end of that 1-3 range in SW Maine. It's remarkable how, regardless of synoptics, this area has been a reliable snow hole lately.

[moneypitmike]

I'm calling for a trace in Westborough; 3-5 at Pit2.  Perhaps a 6 if the ratios go to town.

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Grab a quick 1-2 flakes to freshen up things 

 

[TalcottWx]

It looks like the jackpot is in the middle of nowhere, population zero, how riveting for the majority of us. 

[WinterWolf]

21 minutes ago, PWMan said:

GYX talked about that dry nose this morning. Could put us at the low end of that 1-3 range in SW Maine. It's remarkable how, regardless of synoptics, this area has been a reliable snow hole lately.

Everybody spends some time in “The shit barrel” from time to time…it’s how it goes.  It’ll change at some point. 

[das]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The BTV AFD captures the risk here well.  The snow growth level is high with some mid-level winds so it's likely that the dendrites will break up on the way down.  Leading to denser and lower snow totals than would typically be expected with this air mass.

[CoastalWx]

I've had plenty of nor'easters with strong winds and the dendrites stay together. However, when they land...that's when they fall apart. I've never heard of shitty flakes due to strong mid level winds unless they're blowing quite hard? Usually lousy flakes are more due to snow growth.

[ineedsnow]

Hoping for another inch or so but still have some snow left from the other day.. either way looks like a white Christmas 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I've had plenty of nor'easters with strong winds and the dendrites stay together. However, when they land...that's when they fall apart. I've never heard of shitty flakes due to strong mid level winds unless they're blowing quite hard? Usually lousy flakes are more due to snow growth.

Yeah…think of those deformation bands where you have different flow trajectories coming together and stretching of the parcels yet we’re still pulling 25:1 at the sfc. It’s not as gusty above the frictional layer either so there’s probably less opportunity for collisions?

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah…think of those deformation bands where you have different flow trajectories coming together and stretching of the parcels yet we’re still pulling 25:1 at the sfc. It’s not as gusty above the frictional layer either so there’s probably less opportunity  for collisions?

I agree there. But take the Jan 2022 blizzard here. We had 40-50mph at the surface and 60kts off the deck, yet it was puking dendrites here until they met the surface. Didn't seem like wind issues to me. 

[mreaves]

BTV going out on a limb.

[das]

34 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I've had plenty of nor'easters with strong winds and the dendrites stay together. However, when they land...that's when they fall apart. I've never heard of shitty flakes due to strong mid level winds unless they're blowing quite hard? Usually lousy flakes are more due to snow growth.

Funny you say that.  I've only ever heard it up here from this specific crew.  But, I've heard it from them a few times now.  Here's the specific text.  Judge it as you will:

"...As such, snowfall amounts were increased pretty much everywhere leading to more widespread cover of 3 to 6 inches of accumulating snow. One foil, which moderated my forecast a bit, is that the dendritic growth zone is rather high for many locations and coincident with 35+kt winds. These winds will likely fracture a good portion of dendrites resulting in more of a mixed snow-crystal structure reaching the ground favoring a dry, but relatively more dense snowpack that could limit snow depth."

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, das said:

Funny you say that.  I've only ever heard it up here from this specific crew.  But, I've heard it from them a few times now.  Here's the specific text.  Judge it as you will:

"...As such, snowfall amounts were increased pretty much everywhere leading to more widespread cover of 3 to 6 inches of accumulating snow. One foil, which moderated my forecast a bit, is that the dendritic growth zone is rather high for many locations and coincident with 35+kt winds. These winds will likely fracture a good portion of dendrites resulting in more of a mixed snow-crystal structure reaching the ground favoring a dry, but relatively more dense snowpack that could limit snow depth."

DGZ is real thick there too. I've honestly never heard of that statement, although I guess they mean that strong winds in the DGZ will fracture them as they develop? I feel like PF rips dendiies a lot with 50kt winds at the summit. Interesting take anyways. I don't necessarily disagree...just never seen flakes themselves ripped apart with strong winds until they make contact with the ground.

[dendrite]

35kt winds in the DGZ doesn’t sound that extreme to me.

[Layman]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

DGZ is real thick there too. I've honestly never heard of that statement, although I guess they mean that strong winds in the DGZ will fracture them as they develop? I feel like PF rips dendiies a lot with 50kt winds at the summit. Interesting take anyways. I don't necessarily disagree...just never seen flakes themselves ripped apart with strong winds until they make contact with the ground.

This is actually observable?  Curious if it can be seen with the naked eye or if it is viewed via film or high speed camera?  I can't say if I've actually looked for this or seen it at any point over the years or not, but it's interesting to consider this happens.  

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Layman said:

This is actually observable?  Curious if it can be seen with the naked eye or if it is viewed via film or high speed camera?  I can't say if I've actually looked for this or seen it at any point over the years or not, but it's interesting to consider this happens.  

Sorta. You can magnify the crystals to see if the hexagonal crystalline structures are still in tact of if they’re broken up into pieces. Imagine the crystal formations on this site https://www.snowcrystals.com and then just seeing fractured pieces in blowing and drifting snow. There’s a reason why those drifts get dense and hard packed. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Layman said:

This is actually observable?  Curious if it can be seen with the naked eye or if it is viewed via film or high speed camera?  I can't say if I've actually looked for this or seen it at any point over the years or not, but it's interesting to consider this happens.  

So a simple way to think about it would be comparing various events that had light winds vs higher winds. Easier for me here on the coast as most storms have strong winds here. 

 

But recall those events that had light winds and good snow growth. You probably remember how it looked after the snow ended with the crystalline structure visible and a fluffy pack that felt like walking on a cloud as you stepped into it. Now think of some of the events that had wind. Sure the snow was dry, but when you step into the pack, it's noticeably denser. It's not the density of heavy wet snow, but it has a little girth to it. We have that here all the time. The wind can pack down the snow by pummeling the crystalline structures. It's rare to have a fluff bomb on light winds, but it does happen.