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Marginal white Christmas morning CP? and likely much of the subforum along and N of I80 NJ/PA into se NYS, parts of CT. 7A 12/25 SD ob here if you wish

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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wdrag

wdrag

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Hi!  Thought it might be interesting to check-speculate on a white Christmas  (since I didnt see the topic earlier).  Been watching the EC SNOW DEPTH guidance.  I

Another uncertain minor 2-6 hour snow event possible between 6A-Noon Tuesday the 24th,  that should leave fairly large chunk of our area to qualify as 1" of snow on the ground Christmas morning (rounding 1/2" up).

Temps in the interior will be at or below freezing by sundown today and continue possibly through 10AM Christmas Day.   So where we exceed an inch today, we have a chance of 1/2" or more on the ground Christmas morning.

Attached the op 12z/20 ECMWF attempt to predict snow depth. Grey is about 1/2". XMACIS 12/25 CP amounts attached.  I checked EWR which also dates back to 2009 when they 4 on the ground in the morning. .

Last time CP moe than 1/2" on the ground on Christmas Day...2009.  Probably not going to happen but it might.  Depends on tonight and Tuesday morning. 

Screen Shot 2024-12-20 at 1.05.58 PM.png

Screen Shot 2024-12-20 at 1.25.23 PM.png

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jm1220

jm1220

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41 minutes ago, wdrag said:

The chance for a white Christmas in CP NYC looks like a legit possibility as well as most surrounding environs w LI, sw CT, NNJ.se NYS ne PA.  am expecting dusting of snow Tuesday morning around sunrise.   That should help. 

Hopefully at least here there's some left. I measured 2.5" a little while ago and still decent snow coming down. 

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wdrag

wdrag

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NYC - Long Island-possibly Philly: There will probably be a 1/4 to 1" of new snow between roughly 6AM and Noon Tuesday. Philly is on the southern edge so it may only be flurries. Still winter driving habits advised-plan on a little caution if you have to be out and about Tuesday morning from the previously frozen roads.  I think this will assure a white Christmas morning (1/2" or more on the ground for official 1" snow depth), anywhere where there is more than an inch on the ground this morning.  I might be pushing it a little and maybe we need to say 1.5" of snow on the ground this morning to assure a white Christmas but short days and generally below freezing temps should help get its there.  Your snow depth reports Christmas morning after the kids (grands) are done unwrapping-celebrating. 

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winterwx21

winterwx21

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Hopefully between what we have now and what we get Tuesday morning, we'll have enough for a white Christmas. There definitely will be some melting Tuesday afternoon though with temps getting to the upper 30s. It's going to be close. I already have patches of bare ground here in spots that get a lot of sun. I would think the shady areas will still have some on Christmas morning. 

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rclab

rclab

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4 hours ago, North and West said:


I resemble this remark


.

I commiserate with you N and W.  …. Thats why I live by the axiom “Good things come in small packages” There’s another one I could use but then Rjay and/or Bx would have to step in. As always ……

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
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On 12/20/2024 at 1:29 PM, wdrag said:

Hi!  Thought it might be interesting to check-speculate on a white Christmas  (since I didnt see the topic earlier).  Been watching the EC SNOW DEPTH guidance.  I

Another uncertain minor 2-6 hour snow event possible between 6A-Noon Tuesday the 24th,  that should leave fairly large chunk of our area to qualify as 1" of snow on the ground Christmas morning (rounding 1/2" up).

Temps in the interior will be at or below freezing by sundown today and continue possibly through 10AM Christmas Day.   So where we exceed an inch today, we have a chance of 1/2" or more on the ground Christmas morning.

Attached the op 12z/20 ECMWF attempt to predict snow depth. Grey is about 1/2". XMACIS 12/25 CP amounts attached.  I checked EWR which also dates back to 2009 when they 4 on the ground in the morning. .

Last time CP moe than 1/2" on the ground on Christmas Day...2009.  Probably not going to happen but it might.  Depends on tonight and Tuesday morning. 

Screen Shot 2024-12-20 at 1.05.58 PM.png

Screen Shot 2024-12-20 at 1.25.23 PM.png

Central Park likely had 1" snow cover on December 25, 1998. 2.0" fell on December 24th and the high that day was 32°. 

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wdrag

wdrag

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Central Park likely had 1" snow cover on December 25, 1998. 2.0" fell on December 24th and the high that day was 32°. 

Thanks for checking-filling the M data Don.  Sweating out CP...  I just don't know what's happening there.  I think they'll need the Tue morning refresher to make it.  Close call. 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

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19 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Thanks for checking-filling the M data Don.  Sweating out CP...  I just don't know what's happening there.  I think they'll need the Tue morning refresher to make it.  Close call. 

It would be nice to see a decent snow squall give NYC enough snow to assure the 1" snow cover at 7 am 12/25. Hopefully, the high-res models will provide good insight into the intensity and duration of the possible snow squall line.

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RU848789

RU848789

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Even without any new snow, I expect to have at least 1" OTG Weds am, as we got 3.3" in the recent storm and still have over 2" right now, after some melting/compaction yesterday and almost no melting today obviously and should be minimal melting tomorrow, and I can't imagine losing more than 1" on Tuesday with about 8 hours of temps just a bit above 32F.  Of course, a little top-off of snow Tuesday am would be nice.  

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

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55 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Even without any new snow, I expect to have at least 1" OTG Weds am, as we got 3.3" in the recent storm and still have over 2" right now, after some melting/compaction yesterday and almost no melting today obviously and should be minimal melting tomorrow, and I can't imagine losing more than 1" on Tuesday with about 8 hours of temps just a bit above 32F.  Of course, a little top-off of snow Tuesday am would be nice.  

That bottom inch is the hardest to melt especially with it becoming more dense with time.  Sunlight doesn't really melt it, higher humidity would though.  Cold and sunny will keep snow around even if the temp is a little above freezing.

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wdrag

wdrag

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11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

It would be nice to see a decent snow squall give NYC enough snow to assure the 1" snow cover at 7 am 12/25. Hopefully, the high-res models will provide good insight into the intensity and duration of the possible snow squall line.

Here's what I'm using for my forecast... the colder RGEM ECMWF... Both 6z/23 versions-ops.  

NWS imo, looks too light but even their amounts are good start for the refresher.

-4 here for a low in Wantage.  

My guess is there will have to be some slower travel tomorrow morning for an hour or two in the snow squall line, and prior frozen roads. Melting NYC begins around Noon.  Hopefully enough falls to hang on.  Also, since this will occur after 12z, my confidence on what is measured in CP is below average.  I'll be happy if they note 0.3".  Am not starting a stand alone miracle thread, until I see a much better chance for 1" in CP. 

Screen Shot 2024-12-23 at 6.38.37 AM.png

Screen Shot 2024-12-23 at 3.49.43 AM.png

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Allsnow

Allsnow

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7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Should be a nice quick hit from 8 to 10 tomorrow morning with frozen ground everything will stick

Hrrr looks nice although at 10:1 it's slightly less

 

ref1km_ptype.us_ne (32).png

snowfall_acc-imp.us_ne (1).png

So nice to have this type of weather focused directly around Xmass! Snow on Christmas Eve morning! Awesome 

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