Marginal white Christmas morning CP? and likely much of the subforum along and N of I80 NJ/PA into se NYS, parts of CT. 7A 12/25 SD ob here if you wish

[wdrag]

Hi!  Thought it might be interesting to check-speculate on a white Christmas  (since I didnt see the topic earlier).  Been watching the EC SNOW DEPTH guidance.  I

Another uncertain minor 2-6 hour snow event possible between 6A-Noon Tuesday the 24th,  that should leave fairly large chunk of our area to qualify as 1" of snow on the ground Christmas morning (rounding 1/2" up).

Temps in the interior will be at or below freezing by sundown today and continue possibly through 10AM Christmas Day.   So where we exceed an inch today, we have a chance of 1/2" or more on the ground Christmas morning.

Attached the op 12z/20 ECMWF attempt to predict snow depth. Grey is about 1/2". XMACIS 12/25 CP amounts attached.  I checked EWR which also dates back to 2009 when they 4 on the ground in the morning. .

Last time CP moe than 1/2" on the ground on Christmas Day...2009.  Probably not going to happen but it might.  Depends on tonight and Tuesday morning. 

[wdrag]

The chance for a white Christmas in CP NYC looks like a legit possibility as well as most surrounding environs w LI, sw CT, NNJ.se NYS ne PA.  am expecting dusting of snow Tuesday morning around sunrise.   That should help. 

[jm1220]

41 minutes ago, wdrag said:

The chance for a white Christmas in CP NYC looks like a legit possibility as well as most surrounding environs w LI, sw CT, NNJ.se NYS ne PA.  am expecting dusting of snow Tuesday morning around sunrise.   That should help. 

Hopefully at least here there's some left. I measured 2.5" a little while ago and still decent snow coming down. 

[Stormlover74]

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Same as gfs.

[wdrag]

Probably my last on Tuesday mornings event (or non if it doesn't pan out).  13z/21 Blend of Models and EPS prob of >1"