OBS for NYC CP first measurable minor snowfall? 11A Fri 12/20-11A 12/21, embedded with surrounding area periodic minor accumulative snow

[forkyfork]

 

[qg_omega]

2.5 inches

[weathermedic]

2.5 inches on my picnic table in the backyard

[WestBabylonWeather]

About 2” (maybe close to 3) in west Babylon with light snow still falling all surfaces except street 

[Allsnow]

28 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Anything from Central Park yet?  No PNS yet from NWS-NYC...

Great numbers to start the season 

 

 

[psv88]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The difference between 0.1 and 2.0 is essentially noise as far as these models are concerned. All through the year we get rainfall events within this margin. But people only notice since it’s snow.

Eh. Forecast was 1/2” and we got 2”+. That’s not really “noise” when it comes to snowfall forecast for a light event. 
 

1/2” v 2” matters much more from a travel perspective. 2” is much more disruptive than 1/2”

[Nibor]

Just now, psv88 said:

Eh. Forecast was 1/2” and we got 2”+. That’s not really “noise” when it comes to snowfall forecast for a light event. 
 

1/2” v 2” matters much more from a travel perspective. 2” is much more disruptive than 1/2”

I was expecting half an inch at most. Pleasantly surprised. 

[VicV]

Made 4 readings, front lawn, Eltingville Staten Island. Avg reading was 4 inches

[jm1220]

Just now, psv88 said:

Eh. Forecast was 1/2” and we got 2”+. That’s not really “noise” when it comes to snowfall forecast for a light event. 
 

1/2” v 2” matters much more from a travel perspective. 2” is much more disruptive than 1/2”

And for once a cold snap without brown ground so that means the cold will likely overperform too. My street's pretty messy, haven't been to Jericho Tpke yet. 

[winterwx21]

2.7" here. So glad we had an overperformer! Absolutely beautiful out there! 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

And for once a cold snap without brown ground so that means the cold will likely overperform too. My street's pretty messy, haven't been to Jericho Tpke yet. 

With the low sun angle their will be areas that don’t melt off quickly 

[North and West]

I was expecting half an inch at most. Pleasantly surprised. 

.

[psv88]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

And for once a cold snap without brown ground so that means the cold will likely overperform too. My street's pretty messy, haven't been to Jericho Tpke yet. 

We will see how much of this melts today. Suppose to get to 33/34 so we everything on pavement will melt. Probably will only have patches left in the shade by evening 

[LoboLeader1]

20F here currently in western MA, light snow currently falling.

[kat5hurricane]

What is this white stuff I woke up to? At least 2 inches just eyeballing it here in Whitestone possibly 3, beautiful surprise.  Snow on Christmas week, kinda, haven't had that in a while.

[Tatamy]

32 minutes ago, psv88 said:

2 inches in Suffolk. Not a single model showed that. Pleasantly surprised! Snow continues and it’s 28.

feels like years since it’s snowed when it’s been below 30 degrees 

You are forgetting the 06z NAM run from yesterday morning.  

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Ended with 2.6 down..not bad at all. Also more snow likely later on.

[EastonSN+]

0.5 inch in Easton Connecticut.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

We will see how much of this melts today. Suppose to get to 33/34 so we everything on pavement will melt. Probably will only have patches left in the shade by evening 

Models seem to keep us around freezing until the bottom falls out and like Allsnow said, this is the lowest sun angle of the year. We'll see. The ground being warm might melt some from below. 

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Great numbers to start the season 

 

 

Great to see Central Park get their first snowfall. 

[psv88]

3” for the season now is probably about average for December around here. Bodes well for the rest of the winter. 
 

28 and steady light snow continues 

[Brasiluvsnow]

New City / Rockland here ---I went to bed it was snowing lightly,,,,,woke up to a nice few inches more on top of what had already fallen yesterday THIS IS GREAT and to you guys who were saying this " might happen : congrats you had it right and did good Enjoy your snow ANTHONY = Merry Christmas

[ForestHillWx]

About to start shoveling. 4.5” here. 

[Nibor]

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

3” for the season now is probably about average for December around here. Bodes well for the rest of the winter. 
 

28 and steady light snow continues 

I have almost 4" with the about 1" from the last overnight event. Not too shabby. And definitely a positive bust-I was expecting a coating at best when I woke up.

[dWave]

Pleasantly surprised, 2" of snow. Its been a long time.

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Eh. Forecast was 1/2” and we got 2”+. That’s not really “noise” when it comes to snowfall forecast for a light event. 
 

1/2” v 2” matters much more from a travel perspective. 2” is much more disruptive than 1/2”

Not really in terms of amounts since it was still within .2 spread. This happens all the time with rain. There is no way to narrow that margin down just because the precipitation is frozen rather than liquid. This was still good forecast. 

January 2015 was a significant model miss for snowfall here. Our greatest recent model error for snow was January 2000 when the storm was forecast to stay offshore and we got 6”+. They still may not know what lead to that model error. 

Back in the 1970s and 1980s it was more common for models to completely miss storm events. Jan 78 featured a NOAA weather radio forecast of rain heavy at times. Then the next morning we had 15” of snow on the ground. I believe February 1980 had forecasts for 3-6” and the storm missed to our south with nothing here.

So while modeling has come a long way since then, a 0.2 error margin may be tough to overcome.

[wxman]

47 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Wow, you guys really overperformed.  I wonder how much of that was due to your elevation.  

Elevation helps a lot in these marginal temp events.   Was in downtown Somerville last night and virtually nothing OTG.  On the hill the ground was completely covered. 

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

2.5 inches on my picnic table in the backyard

meh the sun is starting to come out now, I guess that's the end of that.

I hear people shoveling outside lol

That's a new and unfamiliar sound....

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I have almost 4" with the about 1" from the last overnight event. Not too shabby. And definitely a positive bust-I was expecting a coating at best when I woke up.

What did JFK get in that overnight event? I woke up at 1 am and saw we were snowcovered and woke up again at 3 am and it was all gone lol.