OBS for NYC CP first measurable minor snowfall? 11A Fri 12/20-11A 12/21, embedded with surrounding area periodic minor accumulative snow

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, psv88 said:

3” for the season now is probably about average for December around here. Bodes well for the rest of the winter. 
 

28 and steady light snow continues 

Nice storm and maybe we'll get a white Christmas from this, but the snow is about over the sun is already out here and blinding lol

 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

meh the sun is starting to come out now, I guess that's the end of that.

I hear people shoveling outside lol

That's a new and unfamiliar sound....

and the wind is picking up - sun and wind will rid the trees of any snow soon question now is will the temps reach 32 ?

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Not really in terms of amounts since it was still within .2 spread. This happens all the time with rain. There is no way to narrow that margin down just because the precipitation is frozen rather than liquid. This was still good forecast. 

January 2015 was a significant model miss for snowfall here. Our greatest recent model error for snow was January 2000 when the storm was forecast to stay offshore and we got 6”+. They still may not know what lead to that model error. 

Back in the 1970s and 1980s it was more common for models to completely miss storm events. Jan 78 featured a NOAA weather radio forecast of rain heavy at times. Then the next morning we had 15” of snow on the ground. I believe February 1980 had forecasts for 3-6” and the storm missed to our south with nothing here.

So while modeling has come a long way since then, a 0.2 error margin may be tough to overcome.

The first halves of both the Dec 03 and Jan 11 events were fairly bad positive busts, one had nothing and we had 6-10, the other I think maybe was forecasting 1-2 and we got 6-10

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

What did JFK get in that overnight event? I woke up at 1 am and saw we were snowcovered and woke up again at 3 am and it was all gone lol.

I think all NYC sites had a T. Up here it was around an inch maybe a little less. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

and the wind is picking up - sun and wind will rid the trees of any snow soon question now is will the temps reach freezing ?

Thats why I'm taking pictures now before all the snow comes off the branches.

Freezing temps by Christmas day?

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The first halves of both the Dec 03 and Jan 11 events were fairly bad positive busts, one had nothing and we had 6-10, the other I think maybe was forecasting 1-2 and we got 6-10

Nov 2018 too. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I think all NYC sites had a T. Up here it was around an inch maybe a little less. 

JFK may not have measured properly I dont know but when I woke up at 1 am car tops and roof tops and the trees were all covered and it was snowing fairly hard.

I wish we could estimate snowfall from radar.

[Franklin0529]

Shocked to wake up to this 

[donsutherland1]

Four photos from a wonderful way to start the winter solstice. As @MJO812 has noted, all snow is good snow.

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

So our 3.3" was just slightly below my 1.25" prediction (and the NWS ~0.8" prediction early on 12/20), lol. Wasn't quite as much of an overperformer as 2/17/24, when we got 11.25" in the Norlun Trough Deathband from Heaven vs. the 3-5" predicted, but still a substantial positive bust. I'll take it and I suspect most others won't mind this one, as it's a Saturday and accumulations on pavement for those outside of far NW locations was minor.  Plus, this much snow with the coming cold means a white Christmas.  

This plus about 0.3" from the snow showers on 12/5 puts me at 3.6" for the season.  

They actually had to break out the plows at Menlo this morning; it was nice walking conditions. Got some good pics. Could smell the simmering bacon coming from the IHOP.

[wdrag]

So, I'd like to go back to start of this thread and point out something.  The Blend of Models-top graphic was pretty accurate and depicting the primary threat region for biggest snow... see blue hues.  It was two times as much in reality.  

 

Also STATS based off a NWS forecast suites, were HUGELY in error... imo... BUT....  we found back in the 2015-18 time frame that the MAX AMOUNT probably was often exceeded.  So we don't budget enough info for the high end... 

I presume CP will end up with 2+ today...

[NEG NAO]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

JFK may not have measured properly I dont know but when I woke up at 1 am car tops and roof tops and the trees were all covered and it was snowing fairly hard.

I wish we could estimate snowfall from radar.

its really difficult to get an accurate measurement anyplace during a light wet snow with borderline temps the snow melts on warm surfaces and it settles fast.....

[bluewave]

18 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The first halves of both the Dec 03 and Jan 11 events were fairly bad positive busts, one had nothing and we had 6-10, the other I think maybe was forecasting 1-2 and we got 6-10

January 2000 stands out as even more impressive a miss especially down in the Carolinas. Since many places that got the heavy snow didn’t even have a storm in the forecast the day before. I don’t think they ever figured out what happened with the models in that one.

[JerseyWx]

4 inches on the dot here.  Another over performing system.  Only expected 2 inches at most. @rgwp96

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

January 2000 stands out as even more impressive a miss especially down in the Carolinas. Since many places that got the heavy snow didn’t even have a storm in the forecast the day before. I don’t think they ever figured out what happened with the models in that one.

I think a wind profiler in ATL that ingested data for NCEP had broken.  Something like it had a 50 degree error in winds aloft.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

January 2000 stands out as even more impressive a miss especially down in the Carolinas. Since many places that got the heavy snow didn’t even have a storm in the forecast the day before. I don’t think they ever figured out what happened with the models in that one.

aren't snowstorms notoriously difficult to pin down in la ninas because of the sharp cut off?

The Boxing Day Blizzard wasn't pinned down until like the day before the event?

 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

aren't snowstorms notoriously difficult to pin down in la ninas because of the sharp cut off?

The Boxing Day Blizzard wasn't pinned down until like the day before the event?

 

Yeah but it was modeled well in advance. Then the models lost it until about 36 hours out. Jan 2000 wasn't showing up at all and then we ended up with this

 

I remember waking up to 2 to 3"/hr rates then a dry slot from hell

 

[the_other_guy]

29 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

and the wind is picking up - sun and wind will rid the trees of any snow soon question now is will the temps reach 32 ?

Not a chance

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah but it was modeled well in advance. Then the models lost it until about 36 hours out. Jan 2000 wasn't showing up at all and then we ended up with this

 

Thanks, was the Millenium storm another one like this?

 

[the_other_guy]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah but it was modeled well in advance. Then the models lost it until about 36 hours out. Jan 2000 wasn't showing up at all and then we ended up with this

 

there was always gonna be snow on the 26th. It just ballooned midday on the 25th.

 

went from a 6-12 storm to a 10-20 storm

[the_other_guy]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, was the Millenium storm another one like this?

 

No. that was known about. It was so well known they had time Square totally cleared in time for the drop.

[Poker2015]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

@Poker2015 I'm away.  Camera looks like 2-3"?

4" at my house

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, was the Millenium storm another one like this?

 

No. It actually busted badly for areas sw of Philly. Wasn't a surprise storm except for maybe the 2 foot amounts

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

 

One of the rare times in recent years that Central Park has come in accurate at least to this point in time. If snow is still falling from overnight the 7 am measurement seems to be the only time they are ever close. If this fell between 8am to noon the measurement at 7pm or midnight would be way underdone as always due to compression and melting. I'll take the accuracy when we can get it. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

No. It actually busted badly for areas sw of Philly. Wasn't a surprise storm except for maybe the 2 foot amounts

another la nina bad bust I remember is February 1989

I stayed home from school for that one =\

 

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

aren't snowstorms notoriously difficult to pin down in la ninas because of the sharp cut off?

The Boxing Day Blizzard wasn't pinned down until like the day before the event?

 

Flow tends to be faster and you have more Miller Bs vs As

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

One of the rare times in recent years that Central Park has come in accurate at least to this point in time. If snow is still falling from overnight the 7 am measurement seems to be the only time they are ever close. If this fell between 8-12 am the measurement at 7pm or midnight would be way underdone as always due to compression and melting. I'll take the accuracy when we can get it. 

The airports too.  That event earlier in December I woke up at 1 am to snow falling pretty hard, roofs and cars and tree branches covered with now and at 3 am it was all gone.  Only a T recorded in the city and at the airports =\

 

[FPizz]

4 minutes ago, Poker2015 said:

4" at my house

Wow awesome!  88 in Aruba. 

[Allsnow]

 

[jm1220]

Some flurries still but that should be it. Just measured 2.7-2.8" on the tabletop so with the brief slush yesterday it's about 3" for the event. Very nice!