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OBS for NYC CP first measurable minor snowfall? 11A Fri 12/20-11A 12/21, embedded with surrounding area periodic minor accumulative snow

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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donsutherland1
donsutherland1

Four photos from a wonderful way to start the winter solstice. As @MJO812 has noted, all snow is good snow.

wdrag
wdrag

No guarantees on what will happen. Modeling showa a pair of closely following short waves diving southeast toward the mid Atlantic coast, sharpening the mid level trough.  While too far offshore for a

Nibor
Nibor

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The difference between 0.1 and 2.0 is essentially noise as far as these models are concerned. All through the year we get rainfall events within this margin. But people only notice since it’s snow.

Eh. Forecast was 1/2” and we got 2”+. That’s not really “noise” when it comes to snowfall forecast for a light event. 
 

1/2” v 2” matters much more from a travel perspective. 2” is much more disruptive than 1/2”

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Nibor

Nibor

Posted
Posted
Just now, psv88 said:

Eh. Forecast was 1/2” and we got 2”+. That’s not really “noise” when it comes to snowfall forecast for a light event. 
 

1/2” v 2” matters much more from a travel perspective. 2” is much more disruptive than 1/2”

I was expecting half an inch at most. Pleasantly surprised. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
Just now, psv88 said:

Eh. Forecast was 1/2” and we got 2”+. That’s not really “noise” when it comes to snowfall forecast for a light event. 
 

1/2” v 2” matters much more from a travel perspective. 2” is much more disruptive than 1/2”

And for once a cold snap without brown ground so that means the cold will likely overperform too. My street's pretty messy, haven't been to Jericho Tpke yet. 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

And for once a cold snap without brown ground so that means the cold will likely overperform too. My street's pretty messy, haven't been to Jericho Tpke yet. 

We will see how much of this melts today. Suppose to get to 33/34 so we everything on pavement will melt. Probably will only have patches left in the shade by evening 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

We will see how much of this melts today. Suppose to get to 33/34 so we everything on pavement will melt. Probably will only have patches left in the shade by evening 

Models seem to keep us around freezing until the bottom falls out and like Allsnow said, this is the lowest sun angle of the year. We'll see. The ground being warm might melt some from below. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

3” for the season now is probably about average for December around here. Bodes well for the rest of the winter. 
 

28 and steady light snow continues 

I have almost 4" with the about 1" from the last overnight event. Not too shabby. And definitely a positive bust-I was expecting a coating at best when I woke up.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
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25 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Eh. Forecast was 1/2” and we got 2”+. That’s not really “noise” when it comes to snowfall forecast for a light event. 
 

1/2” v 2” matters much more from a travel perspective. 2” is much more disruptive than 1/2”

Not really in terms of amounts since it was still within .2 spread. This happens all the time with rain. There is no way to narrow that margin down just because the precipitation is frozen rather than liquid. This was still good forecast. 

January 2015 was a significant model miss for snowfall here. Our greatest recent model error for snow was January 2000 when the storm was forecast to stay offshore and we got 6”+. They still may not know what lead to that model error. 

Back in the 1970s and 1980s it was more common for models to completely miss storm events. Jan 78 featured a NOAA weather radio forecast of rain heavy at times. Then the next morning we had 15” of snow on the ground. I believe February 1980 had forecasts for 3-6” and the storm missed to our south with nothing here.

So while modeling has come a long way since then, a 0.2 error margin may be tough to overcome.

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wxman

wxman

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Wow, you guys really overperformed.  I wonder how much of that was due to your elevation.  

Elevation helps a lot in these marginal temp events.   Was in downtown Somerville last night and virtually nothing OTG.  On the hill the ground was completely covered. 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I have almost 4" with the about 1" from the last overnight event. Not too shabby. And definitely a positive bust-I was expecting a coating at best when I woke up.

What did JFK get in that overnight event? I woke up at 1 am and saw we were snowcovered and woke up again at 3 am and it was all gone lol.

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