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OBS for NYC CP first measurable minor snowfall? 11A Fri 12/20-11A 12/21, embedded with surrounding area periodic minor accumulative snow

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

3" even in Garwood, central Union County NJ.  Boy was I ever wrong.  Despite the trough still to come through, my thoughts were that the coastal would rob most of the energy, as I have so often seen, leaving the original system gasping and drying up.  So instead, we had an overperformer, which I will gladly take.  I miss Jeff Beradelli's summary of what happened.  They would go into depth what models were correct, explain in detail the components involved.  It was an excellent hindsight "forecast", meaning the devil is in the details, meaning the clues were there, you just had to pick the right ones to have gotten the right forecast.

Norluns remind me of lake effect streamers. Areas around NYC were in the band last night and this morning.

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donsutherland1
donsutherland1

Four photos from a wonderful way to start the winter solstice. As @MJO812 has noted, all snow is good snow.

wdrag
wdrag

No guarantees on what will happen. Modeling showa a pair of closely following short waves diving southeast toward the mid Atlantic coast, sharpening the mid level trough.  While too far offshore for a

Nibor
Nibor

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

So our 3.3" was just slightly below my 1.25" prediction (and the NWS ~0.8" prediction early on 12/20), lol. Wasn't quite as much of an overperformer as 2/17/24, when we got 11.25" in the Norlun Trough Deathband from Heaven vs. the 3-5" predicted, but still a substantial positive bust. I'll take it and I suspect most others won't mind this one, as it's a Saturday and accumulations on pavement for those outside of far NW locations was minor.  Plus, this much snow with the coming cold means a white Christmas.  

This plus about 0.3" from the snow showers on 12/5 puts me at 3.6" for the season.  

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Nibor said:

Woke up to 2-3 inches of snow otg. Got hit with a bit of nostalgia feeling like a kid again waking up to snow that wasn’t there when you went to bed. 

Well, act like a kid and go out and measure it.  And throw a snowball and make a snow angel.  It's still fun even at my age.  

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NEG NAO

NEG NAO

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Anything from Central Park yet?  No PNS yet from NWS-NYC...

My question is who lives on this board in the city close to CP and measured their snow in the park or close to it?

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

2 inches in Suffolk. Not a single model showed that. Pleasantly surprised! Snow continues and it’s 28.

feels like years since it’s snowed when it’s been below 30 degrees 

The difference between 0.1 and 2.0 is essentially noise as far as these models are concerned. All through the year we get rainfall events within this margin. But people only notice since it’s snow.

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Rmine1

Rmine1

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

2 inches in Suffolk. Not a single model showed that. Pleasantly surprised! Snow continues and it’s 28.

feels like years since it’s snowed when it’s been below 30 degrees 

Glad the “main show” turned out to be the “main snow”.  2”+ here and still snowing 

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psv88

psv88

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9 minutes ago, Rmine1 said:

Glad the “main show” turned out to be the “main snow”.  2”+ here and still snowing 

Yes a nice surprise for the island. The HRRR showed this in its later runs, but didn’t show 2-3” for Nassau/Suffolk. 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The difference between 0.1 and 2.0 is essentially noise as far as these models are concerned. All through the year we get rainfall events within this margin. But people only notice since it’s snow.

My same point that there is no difference between 0.01 rain and just a Trace (talking about October.)

There was no real measurable rainfall that month, the first time I've ever experienced that here.

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
42 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The Euro is just another model like the others. It ranks high but the upgrade years ago ruined it .

 

 

Just saw a measurement of 2.4 in Sloatsburg. So really not that much more than NYC. I think the official city measurement is like 1.7 or something like that

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ILoveWinter

ILoveWinter

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Just saw a measurement of 2.4 in Sloatsburg. So really not that much more than NYC. I think the official city measurement is like 1.7 or something like that

1.8 official NYC/CPK. That's about 1.8 more than I expected! (figured a trace to coating).

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