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OBS for NYC CP first measurable minor snowfall? 11A Fri 12/20-11A 12/21, embedded with surrounding area periodic minor accumulative snow

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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donsutherland1
donsutherland1

Four photos from a wonderful way to start the winter solstice. As @MJO812 has noted, all snow is good snow.

wdrag
wdrag

No guarantees on what will happen. Modeling showa a pair of closely following short waves diving southeast toward the mid Atlantic coast, sharpening the mid level trough.  While too far offshore for a

Nibor
Nibor

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Dark Star

Dark Star

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, psv88 said:

Two schools of thought…run it out or keep adding stabilizer. For the snowblower i run it out. For the boat I keep the tank full and add stabilizer after the final fill up. 

I think I heard to run it out, then add stabilizer at the end to insure that most of the gasoline is gone, but mainly stabilizer remains in the lines and carb?

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Dark Star

Dark Star

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, RU848789 said:

It's not quite that simple.  In a perfect world, if one could truly run the engine "dry" of all fuel, that would be best, as no fuel means no oxidation of residual fuel by the O2 in air, which is what leads to polymerization of fuel, i.e., "gunk."  The problem with that is it's really hard to ensure the engine and carburetor are truly devoid of fuel by running until the engine stops and if there is any residual fuel in the carburetor, gunk can still form in a more concentrated state.  That's why many engine manufacturers recommend keeping the engine as close to full as possible with fresh fuel (so very little air/O2 are present) and adding a fuel stabilizer to it to reduce oxidation/polymerization forming gunk.  I know the link below is from an additive company which could be self serving, but with 40+ years in the chemical industry and being in charge of hundreds of gas powered engines of all types in managing factories, I do have some specific knowledge here.  

https://www.sta-bil.com.au/news/a-perspective-on-running-equipment-dry-before-storage-2#:~:text=The reason manufacturers recommend running,in the engine during storage.

Maybe, but my son flips lawn mowers, boat engines, motorcycles, etc.  they all have the same problem, gas in the carb gunked it up.

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RU848789 said:

Just woke up and took a nice walk outside in the gorgeous silence of a fresh snowfall.  As of 5:30 am, we're up to 2.6", which is 1.2" the past 3 hours or 0.4" per hour and the radar loop from the last 3 hours looks like the snow was pretty steady for most of NNJ/CNJ (N of 195) and all of NYC and it still looks pretty good for another hour or two.  Temp is down to 31F and all paved surfaces are covered with about 1" of snow.  Huge overperformer - think we'll make it to 3" as the latest HRRR still shows another 1/2-3/4" for most of NNJ/CNJ (especially the eastern half as the back edge of precip approaches) - as I said when they posted the advisories last evening, Middlesex County should've been part of it.

 

As of about 6:50 am we had 3.2" on the ground, as per the picture, and since then we got about another 0.1" for a final total of 3.3", as the snow appears to be over as of about 7:15 am. Damn fine storm, way overperforming my prediction of 1.25" - I'll take the bust, lol, as it's just so gorgeous out there, as per the 2nd pic of the pond across the street from us (have always loved that view from our house).

It's down to 30F. And now the bitter cold comes, so I'd expect us to have our first white Christmas in years, as temps won't go above 32F again until Tuesday afternoon (and just barely into the mid-30s and then back below 32F by sunset) and the sun angle for melting doesn't get any lower.

rRH3wzR.png

kH959xs.jpg

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Dark Star

Dark Star

Posted
Posted

3" even in Garwood, central Union County NJ.  Boy was I ever wrong.  Despite the trough still to come through, my thoughts were that the coastal would rob most of the energy, as I have so often seen, leaving the original system gasping and drying up.  So instead, we had an overperformer, which I will gladly take.  I miss Jeff Beradelli's summary of what happened.  They would go into depth what models were correct, explain in detail the components involved.  It was an excellent hindsight "forecast", meaning the devil is in the details, meaning the clues were there, you just had to pick the right ones to have gotten the right forecast.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Light snow ongoing. Just measured 2.5" on the table top on the deck. 2.7" for the event so far with the brief 0.2" in the weenie band yesterday. Everything snowcovered. Counting the about 1" from the last overnight event I'm at 3.5" or so on the season. Beautiful scene! 

 

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snowman19

snowman19

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Snow brings everyone together

Hey Snowman, how much did you get ? Hope you did well. ;)

2-3. I was expecting an inch or so yesterday based on what the morning Euro was showing but it overperformed. The Euro is not what it used to be

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

3" even in Garwood, central Union County NJ.  Boy was I ever wrong.  Despite the trough still to come through, my thoughts were that the coastal would rob most of the energy, as I have so often seen, leaving the original system gasping and drying up.  So instead, we had an overperformer, which I will gladly take.  I miss Jeff Beradelli's summary of what happened.  They would go into depth what models were correct, explain in detail the components involved.  It was an excellent hindsight "forecast", meaning the devil is in the details, meaning the clues were there, you just had to pick the right ones to have gotten the right forecast.

Jeff's reports were excellent and, well, you do have a red tag, so maybe it's time to pick up the proverbial torch.  :>)

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
Just now, snowman19 said:

2-3. I was expecting an inch or so yesterday based on what the morning Euro was showing but it overperformed. The Euro is not what it used to be

The Euro is just another model like the others. It ranks high but the upgrade years ago ruined it .

 

 

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BxEngine

BxEngine

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

3” on the nose here at home. 87 is a shitshow down by stew leonards in Yonkers. I also saw a Coca-Cola truck jackknife on saw mill river road north of arsdley.

The area by stews is always a mess, which makes no damn sense seeing as how one of their salt and plow depots is right there lol

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Light snow ongoing. Just measured 2.5" on the table top on the deck. 2.7" for the event so far with the brief 0.2" in the weenie band yesterday. Everything snowcovered. Counting the about 1" from the last overnight event I'm at 3.5" or so on the season. Beautiful scene! 

 

This December has overperformed on both events.

I wonder if that means anything going forward.

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