OBS for NYC CP first measurable minor snowfall? 11A Fri 12/20-11A 12/21, embedded with surrounding area periodic minor accumulative snow

[jm1220]

Light snow. So thrilled the NAM finally sniffed one out!! 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Mega bust unless something happens tonight 

I wouldn't say Mega.  Right now, Garwood NJ is in a lull, even though radar says more is to come.  It is a matter of how fast the coastal low steals the rest of the energy away from the original Clipper.  Seems that when NWS and TV mets start nowcasting for increased snow amounts, that's when the bulk of the precip has likely fallen...

[mikeysed]

For those "this is underperforming or sad."  Hate to be the grinch but the models beyond some ones discredited earlier showed dusting to 2 inches. That seems to be the exact thing happening...

[snywx]

28° w/ Lgt snow

1.5" otg

Pretty much as expected. Hopefully can squeeze out another inch 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

For those "this is underperforming or sad."  Hate to be the grinch but the models beyond some ones discredited earlier showed dusting to 2 inches. That seems to be the exact thing happening...

This wasn’t a bust. Maybe one last shot at some accumulation overnight when the trough swings through but other than those who swung at the NAM high on crack runs, it’s doing as expected. It’s an eastern New England/Boston late bloomer snowstorm and some fun elsewhere from the inverted trough, otherwise another lame fail. Boston almost certain to break their 4” drought-radar looks great there. 

[gravitylover]

Looks like it's drying up I have the same half inch I've had most of the day, would be nice to get some more tonight but I'll take this dense coating and call it ok.

[Stormlover74]

Euro looks good even for the city overnight

[RU848789]

Well, let's hope this thing backfills as forecast for the 95 corridor.  All we need is 3-5 hours of 1/4-1/2" per hour decent snow at around 32F to get 1-2".  Is that so much to ask for lol?  

[RU848789]

NWS updated discussion sounds like the inverted trough feature will be from SENJ to Philly and up to the Lehigh Valley, although they're not changing snowfall forecasts yet.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
639 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2024

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 PM, an upper air analysis showed a trough axis nearly
over our area with strong vorticity advection moving through.
This is helping to provide ample forcing for ascent and
widespread precipitation across most of the area. It has been
drier down in Delmarva but some radar returns continue to
develop there. Much of the precipitation is in the form of snow
as cooling continues to arrived from the west, although some
lingering rain closest to the coast which should mix with and
change to some snow at times. Snowfall amounts have been as high
as 1 to nearly 2 inches in parts of the Lehigh Valley area so
far. There is a weak surface trough from southeast New Jersey
northwestward to near Philadelphia then into the Lehigh Valley.
It is roughly in this zone where additional snow may become
more focused through the overnight. Overall, no significant
changes made to the forecast with this update.

[MJO812]

From the SNE thread

Boston

[Tatamy]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

From the SNE thread

Boston

The Boston snow drought looks like it’s coming to an end tonight.  My daughter who lives in the Back Bay already has between 3-4”.  Big bust to the high side underway there.

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

NWS updated discussion sounds like the inverted trough feature will be from SENJ to Philly and up to the Lehigh Valley, although they're not changing snowfall forecasts yet.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
639 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2024

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 PM, an upper air analysis showed a trough axis nearly
over our area with strong vorticity advection moving through.
This is helping to provide ample forcing for ascent and
widespread precipitation across most of the area. It has been
drier down in Delmarva but some radar returns continue to
develop there. Much of the precipitation is in the form of snow
as cooling continues to arrived from the west, although some
lingering rain closest to the coast which should mix with and
change to some snow at times. Snowfall amounts have been as high
as 1 to nearly 2 inches in parts of the Lehigh Valley area so
far. There is a weak surface trough from southeast New Jersey
northwestward to near Philadelphia then into the Lehigh Valley.
It is roughly in this zone where additional snow may become
more focused through the overnight. Overall, no significant
changes made to the forecast with this update.

I was thinking Philly might be a better place than NYC for this one. 

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

The Boston snow drought looks like it’s coming to an end tonight.  My daughter who lives in the Back Bay already has between 3-4”.  Big bust to the high side underway there.

Looks like Boston officially had 4.4” as of 7pm so their 4” drought is over and they’ll have a white Christmas. NYC will likely come out still at T, going into another bitter 3 day brown ground freeze. 

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like Boston officially had 4.4” as of 7pm so their 4” drought is over and they’ll have a white Christmas. NYC will likely come out still at T, going into another bitter 3 day brown ground freeze. 

Apparently the event over performed and a lot of the locals were taken by surprise.  I am told that local internet based forecasts were only calling for an inch or so.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

8 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Apparently the event over performed and a lot of the locals were taken by surprise.  I am told that local internet based forecasts were only calling for an inch or so.

They have have been snowing off the ocean since this morn.  

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Apparently the event over performed and a lot of the locals were taken by surprise.  I am told that local internet based forecasts were only calling for an inch or so.

They had an advisory up this morning for 2-5” I think. Models for a couple days had an area near Boston with enhanced snow from a coastal front, and this type of storm in a fast pattern that develops late usually finds ways to produce for them. 

[ForestHillWx]

2” in chester, less at lower elevations. Very festive. 

[BoulderWX]

1” in Morristown

Overall the even we expected with everything from “just flakes” to a couple of inches. 
 

boston doing well and Philly looks to do well as they’re currently under 30dbz bands and may get under the IVT. I think someone in Philly or south central NJ will see 4”

very nice 

[RU848789]

Incoming!  For 95 corridor in CNJ...

 

[qg_omega]

0.00

[RU848789]

41 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I was thinking Philly might be a better place than NYC for this one. 

Looks like you will be right - just hoping, selfishly, that the Edison area at least gets in on some of it - starting to get a nice batch here with light to moderate snow again for the first time in a couple of hours and starting to accumulate at 33F.  

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Looks like you will be right - just hoping, selfishly, that the Edison area at least gets in on some of it - starting to get a nice batch here with light to moderate snow again for the first time in a couple of hours and starting to accumulate at 33F.  

Hopefully this area of snow over NJ pivots east so we can all get an hour or so of snow overnight where it can be cold enough to stick, but at most I’d expect another coating. Models show a window overnight where it might happen. But as @donsutherland1pointed out days ago, this just isn’t the type of pattern that produces for this area, other than the random IVT/Norlun that are impossible to predict that far in advance. Wintry looking outside at least but I’m tired of the cold/dry to warm/wet this fast pattern keeps giving. 

[SI Mailman]

Moderate snow here on Staten Island

[Stormlover74]

Slushy accumulation now. Picnic table, grill top etc. Still 33

[Allsnow]

Mod snow 

 

slushy accumulation 

[MJO812]

Snow approaching the city

Latest HRRR

Snow is snow. Our time will eventually come.

[jm1220]

It’ll be a crazy weird visible satellite tomorrow-swath in a chunk of SNE and NJ to around Philly with snow on the ground, massive middle finger in between. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Steady light snow continues. 27.0°

Just measured 1.75"

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It’ll be a crazy weird visible satellite tomorrow-swath in a chunk of SNE and NJ to around Philly with snow on the ground, massive middle finger in between. 

We should see snow overnight 

[snywx]

0z HRRR for tonight