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OBS for NYC CP first measurable minor snowfall? 11A Fri 12/20-11A 12/21, embedded with surrounding area periodic minor accumulative snow

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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donsutherland1
donsutherland1

Four photos from a wonderful way to start the winter solstice. As @MJO812 has noted, all snow is good snow.

wdrag
wdrag

No guarantees on what will happen. Modeling showa a pair of closely following short waves diving southeast toward the mid Atlantic coast, sharpening the mid level trough.  While too far offshore for a

Nibor
Nibor

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Dark Star

Dark Star

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Mega bust unless something happens tonight 

I wouldn't say Mega.  Right now, Garwood NJ is in a lull, even though radar says more is to come.  It is a matter of how fast the coastal low steals the rest of the energy away from the original Clipper.  Seems that when NWS and TV mets start nowcasting for increased snow amounts, that's when the bulk of the precip has likely fallen...

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

For those "this is underperforming or sad."  Hate to be the grinch but the models beyond some ones discredited earlier showed dusting to 2 inches. That seems to be the exact thing happening...

This wasn’t a bust. Maybe one last shot at some accumulation overnight when the trough swings through but other than those who swung at the NAM high on crack runs, it’s doing as expected. It’s an eastern New England/Boston late bloomer snowstorm and some fun elsewhere from the inverted trough, otherwise another lame fail. Boston almost certain to break their 4” drought-radar looks great there. 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

NWS updated discussion sounds like the inverted trough feature will be from SENJ to Philly and up to the Lehigh Valley, although they're not changing snowfall forecasts yet. 

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
639 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2024

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 PM, an upper air analysis showed a trough axis nearly
over our area with strong vorticity advection moving through.
This is helping to provide ample forcing for ascent and
widespread precipitation across most of the area. It has been
drier down in Delmarva but some radar returns continue to
develop there. Much of the precipitation is in the form of snow
as cooling continues to arrived from the west, although some
lingering rain closest to the coast which should mix with and
change to some snow at times. Snowfall amounts have been as high
as 1 to nearly 2 inches in parts of the Lehigh Valley area so
far. There is a weak surface trough from southeast New Jersey
northwestward to near Philadelphia then into the Lehigh Valley.
It is roughly in this zone where additional snow may become
more focused through the overnight. Overall, no significant
changes made to the forecast with this update.
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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

NWS updated discussion sounds like the inverted trough feature will be from SENJ to Philly and up to the Lehigh Valley, although they're not changing snowfall forecasts yet. 

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
639 PM EST Fri Dec 20 2024

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 635 PM, an upper air analysis showed a trough axis nearly
over our area with strong vorticity advection moving through.
This is helping to provide ample forcing for ascent and
widespread precipitation across most of the area. It has been
drier down in Delmarva but some radar returns continue to
develop there. Much of the precipitation is in the form of snow
as cooling continues to arrived from the west, although some
lingering rain closest to the coast which should mix with and
change to some snow at times. Snowfall amounts have been as high
as 1 to nearly 2 inches in parts of the Lehigh Valley area so
far. There is a weak surface trough from southeast New Jersey
northwestward to near Philadelphia then into the Lehigh Valley.
It is roughly in this zone where additional snow may become
more focused through the overnight. Overall, no significant
changes made to the forecast with this update.

I was thinking Philly might be a better place than NYC for this one. 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

The Boston snow drought looks like it’s coming to an end tonight.  My daughter who lives in the Back Bay already has between 3-4”.  Big bust to the high side underway there.

Looks like Boston officially had 4.4” as of 7pm so their 4” drought is over and they’ll have a white Christmas. NYC will likely come out still at T, going into another bitter 3 day brown ground freeze. 

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Tatamy

Tatamy

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like Boston officially had 4.4” as of 7pm so their 4” drought is over and they’ll have a white Christmas. NYC will likely come out still at T, going into another bitter 3 day brown ground freeze. 

Apparently the event over performed and a lot of the locals were taken by surprise.  I am told that local internet based forecasts were only calling for an inch or so.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Apparently the event over performed and a lot of the locals were taken by surprise.  I am told that local internet based forecasts were only calling for an inch or so.

They had an advisory up this morning for 2-5” I think. Models for a couple days had an area near Boston with enhanced snow from a coastal front, and this type of storm in a fast pattern that develops late usually finds ways to produce for them. 

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I was thinking Philly might be a better place than NYC for this one. 

Looks like you will be right - just hoping, selfishly, that the Edison area at least gets in on some of it - starting to get a nice batch here with light to moderate snow again for the first time in a couple of hours and starting to accumulate at 33F.  

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Looks like you will be right - just hoping, selfishly, that the Edison area at least gets in on some of it - starting to get a nice batch here with light to moderate snow again for the first time in a couple of hours and starting to accumulate at 33F.  

Hopefully this area of snow over NJ pivots east so we can all get an hour or so of snow overnight where it can be cold enough to stick, but at most I’d expect another coating. Models show a window overnight where it might happen. But as @donsutherland1pointed out days ago, this just isn’t the type of pattern that produces for this area, other than the random IVT/Norlun that are impossible to predict that far in advance. Wintry looking outside at least but I’m tired of the cold/dry to warm/wet this fast pattern keeps giving. 

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