OBS for NYC CP first measurable minor snowfall? 11A Fri 12/20-11A 12/21, embedded with surrounding area periodic minor accumulative snow

[mob1]

Snowing pretty good now and sticking a bit to colder surfaces. 

[MJO812]

Steady light snow now 

 

 

 

37 degrees

[binbisso]

Had a few hours of moderate snow solid coating on colder surfaces. Snow let up but snowing moderately again. Radar filling in nicely 

[Cfa]

Moderate snow starting in Jamaica.

[BoulderWX]

Moderate snow with large flakes firing back up! 

[Stormlover74]

Down to 34. Would think anything that falls after 4pm will stick

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Down to 34. Would think anything that falls after 4pm will stick

Radar filling in nicely 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, STORMANLI said:

Commack

18z

35°

OVC

0.2"/0.07"

Hicksville

37°

With sun breaking through the clouds.

0.1"/0 05"

Back up to 36 now and the snow we had melted. Maybe this band can make it interesting again for a half hour. Otherwise that might be it-models still show LI getting middle fingered. 

[North and West]

I hope we're ok with the sun angle today.

[vegan_edible]

upstate in albany for the holidays, been coming down at a good rate for well over an hour or so. sticking, 29 degrees. guessing we'll see about 1-2 inches out of this up here

[Stormlover74]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Radar filling in nicely 

Grauple now it appears

[the_other_guy]

every time it gets going we get a dusting and then it stops. thats at 300-400 feet

[MJO812]

Down to 35 here

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, BoulderWX said:

Snow showers coming to an end in morris county area but loved the mood flakes and dusting on colder surfaces. 

you'll double or triple what you have now, by 6AM Saturday. 

[winterwx21]

26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Down to 34. Would think anything that falls after 4pm will stick

And 18z HRRR looks pretty good with the overnight  snow. I've been thinking we have a shot at an inch, but maybe we can squeeze out an inch and a half. It's looking like a nice little snow event. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

And 18z HRRR looks pretty good with the overnight  snow. I've been thinking we have a shot at an inch, but maybe we can squeeze out an inch and a half. It's looking like a nice little snow event. 

Would be nice. Cold temperatures to follow 

[Dark Star]

Very light snow in Garwood NJ.  About 35 degrees.  Slight patch o' white on the periphery.  Filled in better than I expected, staying mostly snow.  We have a clipper, developing coastal and an inverted trough.  Without models, I expect the developing coastal to pull most of the energy from the clipper.  Even though some say the low was around the outer banks, I think it is much further north than that, and by the time the original source gets here, I would think the coastal will have robbed most of it and "heaviest" snow will be north of suburban NYC?

[Dark Star]

12 minutes ago, wdrag said:

you'll double or triple what you have now, by 6AM Saturday. 

The coastal, which I think is too far north already, won't rob the energy and cut off precip in our area after midnight?

[BoulderWX]

15 minutes ago, wdrag said:

you'll double or triple what you have now, by 6AM Saturday. 

Yeah. I was clearly premature with that statement. It’s picked up and under a moderate band for last twenty minutes that’s covered all surfaces. 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Very light snow in Garwood NJ.  About 35 degrees.  Slight patch o' white on the periphery.  Filled in better than I expected, staying mostly snow.  We have a clipper, developing coastal and an inverted trough.  Without models, I expect the developing coastal to pull most of the energy from the clipper.  Even though some say the low was around the outer banks, I think it is much further north than that, and by the time the original source gets here, I would think the coastal will have robbed most of it and "heaviest" snow will be north of suburban NYC?

The meat of the precip with the coastal low on radar looks like it’ll clip SE Mass. and Boston perhaps. The snow associated with the trough west of the low looks like it’ll favor NJ. Guess I got 0.1 or 0.2” with the snow band earlier but it’s melted now. But generally something to make it wintry for an hour and nothing more here. Boston has a good shot at breaking their 4” snow drought, this is the kind of late bloomer system that can develop in a fast pattern like this and they have the longitude to cash in. 

[Tatamy]

13 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Very light snow in Garwood NJ.  About 35 degrees.  Slight patch o' white on the periphery.  Filled in better than I expected, staying mostly snow.  We have a clipper, developing coastal and an inverted trough.  Without models, I expect the developing coastal to pull most of the energy from the clipper.  Even though some say the low was around the outer banks, I think it is much further north than that, and by the time the original source gets here, I would think the coastal will have robbed most of it and "heaviest" snow will be north of suburban NYC?

“Heaviest” snows will be north and west of NYC.  The coastal was expected to move out quickly from our area this afternoon making room for the trough and IVT to approach from the west.

[the_other_guy]

Let’s look at that Band right over the Hudson in New Jersey and see what happens with that. It’s really starting to blossom.

 

Right now, this is a big countdown several times over but failure to launch. we shall see the radar after dark

[the_other_guy]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

“Heaviest” snows will be north and west of NYC.  The coastal was expected to move out quickly from our area this afternoon making room for the trough and IVT to approach from the west.

But how far N and W is the big question

[Allsnow]

3k with a good burst of snow for the metro tomorrow morning 

[MANDA]

43 minutes ago, North and West said:

I hope we're ok with the sun angle today.

Yeah.  That won't be an issue until Sunday. 

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

But how far N and W is the big question

Take a look at high resolution radar.  I use the site weather.cod.edu.   If you look closely at the elements you can plainly see echos coming west from the Jersey Shore while other echos come east from central PA.  They are meeting along the Delaware River.  This is where the IVT is currently set up.  Where these echoes meet the accompanying moisture is lifted higher into the atmosphere and then precipitates back down mainly in the form of snow in this instance.  This matches where the models are calling for the higher snow accumulations.  Later tonight as the trough moves in the feature will weaken and push out to the east.  

[Dark Star]

14 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

“Heaviest” snows will be north and west of NYC.  The coastal was expected to move out quickly from our area this afternoon making room for the trough and IVT to approach from the west.

So no conservation of energy with this setup?

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Take a look at high resolution radar.  I use the site weather.cod.edu.   If you look closely at the elements you can plainly see echos coming west from the Jersey Shore while other echos come east from central PA.  They are meeting along the Delaware River.  This is where the IVT is currently set up.  Where these echoes meet the accompanying moisture is lifted higher into the atmosphere and then precipitates back down mainly in the form of snow in this instance.  This matches where the models are calling for the higher snow accumulations.  Later tonight as the trough moves in the feature will weaken and push out to the east.  

 

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

So no conservation of energy with this setup?

The coastal has exited stage right if you will.  It was never expected to be a big player in providing snow to this area.  The trough and IVT are the features that going forward will provide the snow with this event.

[RU848789]

Had occasional very light snow/rain mix from about 10 am to 2 pm with no accumulation at 36-37F, but we've had more light-to-moderate snow since then and temps are down to 34F and we're getting some stickage on cars/grass and I was even able to make a snowball, lol.  Maybe 1/8" so far.  I'm assuming this will continue without much accumulation until at least early evening when temps drop a bit more, plus there won't be any indirect sunlight impact (much less on the shortest day of the year, but not zero, especially with temps above 32F and lighter intensity).  Sticking with my 1.25" snowfall guesstimate for the event.