OBS for NYC CP first measurable minor snowfall? 11A Fri 12/20-11A 12/21, embedded with surrounding area periodic minor accumulative snow

[snywx]

29° w/ flakes in the air 

[Brian5671]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:14 PM, MJO812 said:

Radar doesn't look bad at all

Expand  

one of the 2 models will spectacularly bust on a 12 hr forecast...hard to believe in this day and age

[steve392]

Snow and graupel now in Mahwah, NJ.  Picking up in intensity and starting to stick to some surfaces.

[jm1220]

That stuff off NJ looks mean. Please keep lifting N… 

[IrishRob17]

The finest of snowflakes have commenced in central Orange County

[wishcast_hater]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:16 PM, Brian5671 said:

one of the 2 models will spectacularly bust on a 12 hr forecast...hard to believe in this day and age

Expand  

That is the very reason I cringe when i see the younger generation tout how advanced today's weather technology is in regards to advance forecasting.

[MJO812]

Starting to snow here in Brooklyn

[psv88]

Snow missing just to my west.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:27 PM, wishcast_hater said:

That is the very reason I cringe when i see the younger generation tout how advanced today's weather technology is in regards to advance forecasting.

Expand  

Weather is always unpredictable, been that way for thousands of years . 

[Dark Star]

Mood Flurries falling in Garwood, Central Union County NJ

[brooklynwx99]

I have a hard time believing the NAM given that it has absolutely no support, but crazier things have happened. the RGEM/HRRR seem much more realistic

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Nyc is gonna get it in the chin with the band coming up the city east and moving slowly wnw..

[MJO812]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:32 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

I have a hard time believing the NAM given that it has absolutely no support, but crazier things have happened. the RGEM/HRRR seem much more realistic

Expand  

Nam should be good this close in. It's a mesoscale short term model. 

[MJO812]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:32 PM, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Nyc is gonna get it in the chin with this band is coming up the whole city east and moving slowly wnw..

Expand  

Radar is exploding to the south

[psv88]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:32 PM, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Nyc is gonna get it in the chin with this band is coming up the whole city east and moving slowly wnw..

Expand  

It’s 37 degrees. Stop it. 

[Dark Star]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:16 PM, Brian5671 said:

one of the 2 models will spectacularly bust on a 12 hr forecast...hard to believe in this day and age

Expand  

Yet we just had a post several days ago on how greatly improved most of the models are. 

[the_other_guy]

Flakes westchester!

MJO, whatever happens today, this is your day to shine! 

 

 

[MJO812]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:33 PM, psv88 said:

It’s 37 degrees. Stop it. 

Expand  

I mean if we get in the heavier rates it should cool the temp. He's entitled to his opinion. 

[MJO812]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:34 PM, the_other_guy said:

Flakes westchester!

MJO, whatever happens today, this is your day to shine! 

 

 

Expand  

I just want to see snow. Idc if it's a dusting or a few inches 

[Brian5671]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:33 PM, Dark Star said:

Yet we just had a post several days ago on how greatly improved most of the models are. 

Expand  

Although the NAM was supposed to be dumped a few yrs back right?

[psv88]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:34 PM, MJO812 said:

I mean if we get in the heavier rates it should cool the temp. He's entitled to his opinion. 

Expand  

He’s not actually. It’s 37 degrees. No matter how hard it snows during the day today it’s not sticking in the city (on the roads). Enjoy the mood flakes but relax a bit 

[Stormlover74]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:33 PM, Dark Star said:

Yet we just had a post several days ago on how greatly improved most of the models are. 

Expand  

Well yeah when we only look at the snowiest model which is also the worst

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:32 PM, MJO812 said:

Nam should be good this close in. It's a mesoscale short term model. 

Expand  

the RGEM and HRRR are also mesoscale short term models and are nowhere near it

[jm1220]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:34 PM, MJO812 said:

I mean if we get in the heavier rates it should cool the temp. He's entitled to his opinion. 

Expand  

If we somehow get heavier rates it will drop down to 32/33. But it’s a nowcast situation. We need those heavy echos to keep moving N. 

[MJO812]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:37 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

the RGEM and HRRR are also mesoscale short term models and are nowhere near it

Expand  

So that doesn't mean it's wrong. 

[snywx]

Expecting 1-2" up here in the HV. Anything more is a bonus. 

[lee59]

Snowing here but having a hard time becoming meaningful. Temperature down to 35.3

[Rjay]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:35 PM, MJO812 said:

I just want to see snow. Idc if it's a dusting or a few inches 

Expand  

Same

[psv88]

Wet snow here now and 36. Nice to see 

[MJO812]

  On 12/20/2024 at 3:42 PM, Rjay said:

Same

Expand  

I get excited over flurries