OBS for NYC CP first measurable minor snowfall? 11A Fri 12/20-11A 12/21, embedded with surrounding area periodic minor accumulative snow

[Allsnow]

Getting some sleet pellets and rim flakes currently 

[wxman]

32.5 with light snow grains/sleet falling.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Every other short range model has the CCB precip starting at maybe the twin forks longitude, and this precip off NJ is associated with what IVT develops. It would be an epic bust if they’re wrong this close in. We would need for them to be wrong by 100 miles for it to reach NYC and pray the clueless NAM somehow pulled out a rabbit. 

As of rn the ccb would be over nyc or just west of nyc,precip is moving this way from the east and southwest. Where they meet bang,the gd stuff happens!

[jm1220]

That said light snow here in Melville. 

[Joe Slezak]

Pavement coverage / behavior with this light junk would be appreciated. Thx yall.

[Allsnow]

Looks like the metro will Be caught in a skink zone between the ivt and costal. NYC will probably not get its first snowfall 

[uofmiami]

Snowing in Syosset 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like the metro will Be caught in a skink zone between the ivt and costal. NYC will probably not get its first snowfall 

This would be the worst outcome 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like the metro will Be caught in a skink zone between the ivt and costal. NYC will probably not get its first snowfall 

I dont think so..its still evolving and the movement itself would put the sinkhole in ct,not over nyc.

[MJO812]

Just now, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

I dont think so..its still evolving and the movement itself would put the sinkhole in ct,not over nyc.

The low is supposed to go northeastward so we should be fine.

[jm1220]

Just now, MJO812 said:

This would be the worst outcome 

And it’s the one that other than SREF which uses the crazy NAM as an input and the NAM that models overwhelmingly favor. I hope we get something better but the middle finger zone is most likely. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

This would be the worst outcome 

The ivt would have provided a nice scene early tomorrow morning. 

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Looks like the metro will Be caught in a skink zone between the ivt and costal. NYC will probably not get its first snowfall 

Really shows how much luck is involved in some storms. Snow to the east and west.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Really shows how much luck is involved in some storms. Snow to the east and west.

For nyc, we wanted the low way offshore. The wait will continue now for first accumulation 

[lee59]

 snowflurries here, 37.4 degrees

[MJO812]

Just now, Allsnow said:

For nyc, we wanted the low way offshore. The wait will continue now for first accumulation 

Let it play out first before calling anything. 

[Stormlover74]

It's kinda crazy to see such differences in the models this close to the event

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

For nyc, we wanted the low way offshore. The wait will continue now for first accumulation 

For what it's worth the ggem came in West with the precept shield for the initial batch.

[SRRTA22]

Lol @ the 12z NAM

[MJO812]

Rgem says Nam on crack

[sussexcountyobs]

No snow yet here in Vernon, but temp has dropped since early morning low. Now 27.7°

[NorthShoreWx]

23 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Every other short range model has the CCB precip starting at maybe the twin forks longitude, and this precip off NJ is associated with what IVT develops. It would be an epic bust if they’re wrong this close in. We would need for them to be wrong by 100 miles for it to reach NYC and pray the clueless NAM somehow pulled out a rabbit. 

Having routed for the Jets, Mets, and 80's snowstorms, I'm always looking for that improbable rabbit 

[jm1220]

Hopefully this stuff off NJ keeps lifting north and we cool the column so snow can stick. But models other than the NAM have this as the IVT precip not the developing low. That will probably clip Boston and Cape Cod. Hopefully this can be another situation where the IVT trends NE at the end. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

First flakes falling here in the bronx. 

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem says Nam on crack

It probably is on crack....would be an epic bust if the NAM verified...a good bust that is

[mikem81]

Did any of the models have the intense precip coming onshore now in SNJ?

 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, mikem81 said:

Did any of the models have the intense precip coming onshore now in SNJ?

 

The newer runs yes,but its a good sign if it can keep coming up the coast. Nyc would be on its western edge.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Did any of the models have the intense precip coming onshore now in SNJ?

 

The hrr model starting with hour two shows this and has been showing it.

[EastonSN+]

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

It probably is on crack....would be an epic bust if the NAM verified...a good bust that is

Radar doesn't look bad at all