OBS for NYC CP first measurable minor snowfall? 11A Fri 12/20-11A 12/21, embedded with surrounding area periodic minor accumulative snow

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Shhhh don't tell nobody!!..they still playing catch up.

12z HRRR has pretty much zero outside of NJ, and even they have less than an inch. If you get anything more than flurries from this consider it a win. It’s a late bloomer storm with the fast jet pattern which might be fine for eastern SNE, and we have to watch to see where this IVT sets up. 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I wouldn't go that far, but it is still useful.

Many Mets are saying a low is popping off of NJ coast. Maybe Nam is right. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, NorthShoreWx said:

I wouldn't go that far, but it is still useful.

I wouldnt make a bold statement but ive been rooting for the north american for a while,im glad it's still useful after all the nam bashing last few days.

[Allsnow]

3k nam is closer to the coast 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Trailing energy is slowing up,allowing for a westerly tick to the developing coastal. 

[BoulderWX]

This would make some happy. NAM @ 24

Edit: won’t let me post but LI, CT and SNE get a legit storm. 

[MJO812]

Weak norlun because the coastal is further west.

[jm1220]

If the NAM somehow scores a coup here lol. But I HIGHLY doubt it. I would think other short range models would pick up on something like its showing. 

[NorthShoreWx]

13 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

I wouldnt make a bold statement but ive been rooting for the north american for a while,im glad it's still useful after all the nam bashing last few days.

Being correct about scattered light precipitation moving off the ocean isn't the same as getting the timing and placement of offshore cyclogenesis correct, but one can hope.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the NAM somehow scores a coup here lol. But I HIGHLY doubt it. I would think other short range models would pick up on something like its showing. 

Sref  did

 Check out what's going on in NJ

[Bxstormwatcher360]

5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Being correct about scattered light precipitation moving off the ocean isn't the same as getting the timing and placement of offshore cyclogenesis correct, but one can hope.

Yeah but we never account for a trend or actual climatology and wild card features which in weather can happen at any time. No model is perfect anyway,but i did mention in a post 4 days ago about coastal areas being due for a clipper bomb,it hasnt happened in a while either. Even if it does bomb out late we get in some of the fun.

[EastonSN+]

Hrr precept shield moved West a bit compared to last run.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hrr precept shield moved West a bit compared to last run.

Only question is tilt or no tilt in a narrow window??

[steve392]

Snowing in Mahwah, NJ.  

[TJW014]

Steady light rain now. Dropped to 42.

[snowman19]

The NAM is total outlier garbage. Throw it in the dumpster. The EURO is the way to go. While it’s not great in the longer range sometimes, when you’re this close in, the Euro is deadly accurate

[Bxstormwatcher360]

1 minute ago, steve392 said:

Snowing in Mahwah, NJ.  

Im just waiting on banding over nyc which is incoming. Some places are gonna rip later on esp along the coast.

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Im just waiting on banding over nyc which is incoming. Some places are gonna rip later on esp along the coast.

From your keyboard to God’s eyes. 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM is total outlier garbage. Throw it in the dumpster. The EURO is the way to go. While it’s not great in the longer range sometimes, when you’re this close in, the Euro is deadly accurate

I go with the oppo,the nam is deadly short range but this time its been more consistent then the euro since the get.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM is total outlier garbage. Throw it in the dumpster. The EURO is the way to go. While it’s not great in the longer range sometimes, when you’re this close in, the Euro is deadly accurate

I'm bumping this if you are wrong. Check out the radar. 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM is total outlier garbage. Throw it in the dumpster. The EURO is the way to go. While it’s not great in the longer range sometimes, when you’re this close in, the Euro is deadly accurate

Nam is likely overdone however seeing the hrr come in a bit West with the precept shield is a positive.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I'm bumping this if you are wrong. Check out the radar. 

The weenie might be getting weinered today. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

The weenie might be getting weinered today. 

Radar firing in NJ

[Bxstormwatcher360]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Radar firing in NJ

Its showing signs of a tilt..i might shed a tear of joy later if that happens.

[ForestHillWx]

Very fine flakes in Chester.

Mood snow works, no one should expect more than 1-2”; that’s been emphasized I think. 

[BoulderWX]

Very light flurries in Morristown. If I get an inch I’ll be happy. 

[jm1220]

24 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Being correct about scattered light precipitation moving off the ocean isn't the same as getting the timing and placement of offshore cyclogenesis correct, but one can hope.

Every other short range model has the CCB precip starting at maybe the twin forks longitude, and this precip off NJ is associated with what IVT develops. It would be an epic bust if they’re wrong this close in. We would need for them to be wrong by 100 miles for it to reach NYC and pray the clueless NAM somehow pulled out a rabbit. 

[Tatamy]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Radar firing in NJ

The precip along the Jersey coast is rain.  Temps there are in the upper 30s and low 40s.  Temps out on LI are in the mid to upper 30s.  Anecdotally the R/S line looks to be roughly along I95

[MJO812]

Just now, Tatamy said:

The precip along the Jersey coast is rain.  Temps there are in the upper 30s and low 40s.  Temps out on LI are in the mid to upper 30s.  Anecdotally the R/S line looks to be roughly along I95

Because the coastal is west. If we can get the precip to come in heavy then we will be good.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Every other short range model has the CCB precip starting at maybe the twin forks longitude, and this precip off NJ is associated with what IVT develops. It would be an epic bust if they’re wrong this close in. We would need for them to be wrong by 100 miles for it to reach NYC and pray the clueless NAM somehow pulled out a rabbit. 

Norluns rarely work out. Models are either wrong with them of the coastal .