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OBS for NYC CP first measurable minor snowfall? 11A Fri 12/20-11A 12/21, embedded with surrounding area periodic minor accumulative snow

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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donsutherland1
donsutherland1

Four photos from a wonderful way to start the winter solstice. As @MJO812 has noted, all snow is good snow.

wdrag
wdrag

No guarantees on what will happen. Modeling showa a pair of closely following short waves diving southeast toward the mid Atlantic coast, sharpening the mid level trough.  While too far offshore for a

Nibor
Nibor

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Snowshack

Snowshack

Posted
Posted

Upton's AFD at least left the door slightly open for the MJO812 possibility 

The precipitation could have some banding to the north and west of
the low center. This would be heavier precipitation for Friday
afternoon into Friday night. Most models have this precipitation
offshore but a few models have low pressure overall closer to Long
Island, bringing this heavier band of precipitation across eastern
portions of the region. If trend closer to coast occurs, snow
amounts of a few inches could be seen for most of the region,
locally higher possible.
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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

FWIW whatever snow that falls during the day tomorrow before 4pm will be melting on contact unless you have at least 500-700’ in elevation or are in a place that gets good rates.

Yeah unfortunately the nam is mostly tomorrow during the day. We need more to fall overnight into Saturday 

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Its gonna snow in nyc.. it might a dusting or 4 inches..but its gonna snow.

Other models seem modestly NW but nothing that would bring the CCB in which would mean real accums. NAM is likely headfaking us again. 99% chance that any shot at accums comes with the inverted trough, and that looks better for NJ on the short term modeling than where I am, which is the middle finger zone between that and developing coastal storm. The inverted trough may shift around though or not happen at all. It's really a nowcast with these. 

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David-LI

David-LI

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Precip already breaking out in eastern nc,usually foretelling of a coastal forming right on or just off the coastline. 0z suites already picking up on that .

sorry, what?

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

We have almost the exact opposite of what we had ~24 hours ago with regard to the NBM, as it's showing <1" for just about all of CNJ/NENJ/NYC/LI, while every major global/CAM model so far (CMC, GFS, HRRR, NAM, RDPS, ICON and HRDPS) is showing 1-2" with 3" spots for just about everyone N of 276/195 in PA/NJ/NY.  Last night we had much more snow on the NBM than shown on most of the major models.  Going to be interesting to see what the NWS and others do with this info, especially if the Euro/UK are similar - my guess is the NWS will expand their 1-2" forecasts down to the 95 corridor in NJ/NY - we'll know soon. 

snowfall_acc-imp.us_ma.png

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Tatamy

Tatamy

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Another tick west for both the nam and gfs 6z suites. Nyc east gets into the main precip shield for a bit now,followed by the ivt. Also of note is the precip running up the delmarva coast currently.:snowing:

The precip coming up from off the Delmarva coast and right along would be in the form of rain.  There are no current reports of precip reaching the ground there.  Temps there are in the mid 40s.  Temps along the NJ coast and LI are in the mid 30s and that would support mainly rain during the daytime hours with snow possibly mixing in during any heavier bursts on LI.  In any case no snow accumulations are expected during the daytime hours except for higher elevations well north and west.  This is the theme of what the NWS is going with for the area.  
 

The best chance for snow accumulations for most of us is dependent on additional energy coming in tonight with the trough.  We still have the possibility of the formation of the IVT as well for tonight.

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Bxstormwatcher360

Bxstormwatcher360

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

The precip coming up from off the Delmarva coast and right along would be in the form of rain.  There are no current reports of precip reaching the ground there.  Temps there are in the mid 40s.  Temps along the NJ coast and LI are in the mid 30s and that would support mainly rain during the daytime hours with snow possibly mixing in during any heavier bursts on LI.  In any case no snow accumulations are expected during the daytime hours except for higher elevations well north and west.  This is the theme of what the NWS is going with for the area.  
 

The best chance for snow accumulations for most of us is dependent on additional energy coming in tonight with the trough.  We still have the possibility of the formation of the IVT as well for tonight.

Well its snowing in parts of coastal mass due to ocean effect and echos breaking out to our south east and west. Im not the most astute meteorologist but from the eyes it def looks west.

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Bxstormwatcher360

Bxstormwatcher360

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Well its snowing in parts of coastal mass due to ocean effect and echos breaking out to our south east and west. Im not the most astute meteorologist but from the eyes it def looks west. I think it does accumulate later on today,just my hunch. ;)

 

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Tatamy

Tatamy

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Well its snowing in parts of coastal mass due to ocean effect and echos breaking out to our south east and west. Im not the most astute meteorologist but from the eyes it def looks west.

We don’t live in Massachusetts.  (Unless you’re visiting from the New England board.). Just because there are echoes on radar doesn’t mean it’s snow.  You are correct about the precip from the coastal being west however the precip field from that feature will move out to the east this afternoon.  If anything accumulates that would most likely be this evening and tonight.

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Bxstormwatcher360

Bxstormwatcher360

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

We don’t live in Massachusetts.  (Unless you’re visiting from the New England board.). Just because there are echoes on radar doesn’t mean it’s snow.  You are correct about the precip from the coastal being west however the precip field from that feature will move out to the east this afternoon.

 

4 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

We don’t live in Massachusetts.  (Unless you’re visiting from the New England board.). Just because there are echoes on radar doesn’t mean it’s snow.  You are correct about the precip from the coastal being west however the precip field from that feature will move out to the east this afternoon.

Your right but i mentioned that with l.i in mind. The easterly fetch is bringing in the mousture for eastern areas which wasnt mentioned at all. I think we get some decent bands later on in any case. The squeeze play is on. 

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Another tick west for both the nam and gfs 6z suites. Nyc east gets into the main precip shield for a bit now,followed by the ivt. Also of note is the precip running up the delmarva coast currently.:snowing:

I like how the 6z models shifted slightly more west. 

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