OBS for NYC CP first measurable minor snowfall? 11A Fri 12/20-11A 12/21, embedded with surrounding area periodic minor accumulative snow

[Allsnow]

Best shot for the coast is a period of light snow early Saturday morning from the decaying Ivt. It won’t be much of anything to write home about 

[BoulderWX]

13 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Best shot for the coast is a period of light snow early Saturday morning from the decaying Ivt. It won’t be much of anything to write home about 

Everyone or most everyone who has read through the thread knows this “isn’t much to write home about,” however it would be nice to see flakes and for some, the ground whitened up on the weekend before Christmas. 

[snywx]

Looks like a general 2–3” for the interior & mood flakes for the coast. Not much has really changed from yesterday. 12z NAM came back to earth and the RGEM shows it well now 

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, snywx said:

Looks like a general 2–3” for the interior & mood flakes for the coast. Not much has really changed from yesterday. 12z NAM came back to earth and the RGEM shows it well now 

I would define the coast in this situation south and east of the Raritan River in NJ and southern facing shores of LI and Staten Island. Inland all areas north and west of there........mood flakes area is mixed with rain

[snywx]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I would define the coast in this situation south and east of the Raritan River in NJ and southern facing shores of LI and Staten Island. Inland all areas north and west of there........

I do think there will be some surprises with this. These IVT setups can easily over produce. Wouldn’t surprise me to see some 4” amounts especially in elevated areas. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM should have been discontinued years ago. I can’t believe NWS still bothers using it, it’s horrendous and hasn’t been updated in years. It’s as outdated and embarrassing as the NOGAPS

The HRRR is supposed to overtake it but the HRRR has had its own issues from 36-48 which is why they’ve not extended it past that yet and the switch over has been delayed until further notice 

[jm1220]

NAM needs to get taken out behind the barn. 

[Allsnow]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

NAM needs to get taken out behind the barn. 

It amazes me how this model continues to be looked at by Mets and hobbyists. It’s a huge waste of time outside 24 hours. @bluewave is their any plan to discontinue this model? 

[NEG NAO]

6 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

NAM needs to get taken out behind the barn. 

Does anyone remember how the NAM handled the Feb 16 -17 storm last winter ?

[North and West]

.

[MJO812]

Coating looks like a good bet for NYC with more to the north and west.

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Does anyone remember how the NAM handled the Feb 16 -17 storm last winter ?

I need to clear out my phone 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Best shot for the coast is a period of light snow early Saturday morning from the decaying Ivt. It won’t be much of anything to write home about 

Yep. As I said last night, I'm hoping our area can get an inch out of this. It might not be that much though. A dusting to an inch is a good forecast for our area right now.I'm taking a ride out to Hunterdon County Saturday morning, and I'm looking forward to seeing some nice snowy scenes. There should at least be a coating on the ground. 

[Allsnow]

Just now, winterwx21 said:

Yep. As I said last night, I'm hoping our area can get an inch out of this. It might not be that much though. A dusting to an inch is a good forecast for our area right now. I'm taking a ride out to Hunterdon County Saturday morning, and I'm looking forward to seeing some nice snowy scenes. There should at least be a coating on the ground. 

Enjoy! 

[Tatamy]

26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I need to clear out my phone 

Looks like it missed the I78 deathband.

[Stormlover74]

19 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Looks like it missed the I78 deathband.

Most of the models had the heaviest around the Mason Dixon until the night before

[forkyfork]

the meso models showed the fgen band very well

[Allsnow]

Euro beefed totals up for Saturday morning. Nice to see but this type setup will keep fluctuating up until game time 

[Tatamy]

15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the meso models showed the fgen band very well

Which ones?

[winterwx21]

21 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro beefed totals up for Saturday morning. Nice to see but this type setup will keep fluctuating up until game time 

We hope that the Euro is correct. Would be a nice little 1 to 2 inch snowfall for most of the area. 

[forkyfork]

19 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Which ones?

pretty much all of them showed an fgen band intersecting a wide dgz

[RU848789]

Euro looks nice and News12 is calling for 1-2" for most of cnj/nenj/NYC and 2-4" N and W of 287 (N of 78).

[jm1220]

18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

We hope that the Euro is correct. Would be a nice little 1 to 2 inch snowfall for most of the area. 

For NJ, flurries IMBY. These IVT shift around but models look like they’re favoring NJ. Oh well, enjoy. 

[forkyfork]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

For NJ, flurries IMBY. These IVT shift around but models look like they’re favoring NJ. Oh well, enjoy. 

whenever these shift at the last minute it's usually to the ne

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

whenever these shift at the last minute it's usually to the ne

Hopefully we all get something. Sometimes these just disappear too. We’ll see. 

[Allsnow]

[SnowGoose69]

28 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

whenever these shift at the last minute it's usually to the ne

Only case I recall of one that didn’t was maybe 6-8 years back NYC/LI was ground zero for days and last minute everything shifted to CNJ 

[Tatamy]

51 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

pretty much all of them showed an fgen band intersecting a wide dgz

I remember that the HRRR had it but was not sure of the others.  Thanks.

[Stormlover74]

shocking

[uofmiami]