NYC CP first measurable minor snowfall? 11A Fri 12/20-11A 12/21, embedded with surrounding area periodic minor accumulative snow

[wdrag]

No guarantees on what will happen. Modeling showa a pair of closely following short waves diving southeast toward the mid Atlantic coast, sharpening the mid level trough.  While too far offshore for a 4+" event, the 850 MB weak warm advection, 850MB vorticity from s central NYS sewd to NNJ and under running boundary layer northerly flow is going to produce a little bit of snow.  

For CP, think it needs to measure after sundown Fri.  Outskirts of NYC from NNJ-se NYS-sw CT across LI should see 1/4" to maybe as much as 2", with potential for 3" near the NYS-PA nw NJ border. 

4AM NWS has not posted any snowfall for NYC, so the probability (attached) for 0.1" in CP is very low (26%).

Added 08z WSSI-P graphic and the NWS 08z/18 Blend of Models.

If the system ends up weaker and not sharpening, then this modeled event fritters (850 vort trough just becomes general northerly CAA flow instead of what is modeled now).  Should the miD level trough sharpen a bit more then that boosts confidence for NYC metro spirits brightened by snow on the ground Saturday morning.

If PHL measures, that would be their first of the year.  BOS already has measured.

Reserving comment for Christmas possibilities to the general Dec thread for now, will we get through 12z Sat. Click graphics for clarity.805A

[snowman19]

All the 12z models today are an inch or less total for Friday/Friday night

[ILoveWinter]

43 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

All the 12z models today are an inch or less total for Friday/Friday night

Weren’t you adding weenies to anyone posting there’s a chance of snow in the immediate metro as recently as yesterday? 

[ForestHillWx]

Dude’s the “Heatmiser” of any winter thread. 

Thanks for making it Walt, even if it’s just pixie dust. 

[North and West]

All the 12z models today are an inch or less total for Friday/Friday night

Sounds like an early Christmas gift for you, Ebenezer.


.

[uofmiami]

[MJO812]

The norlun will keep moving around 

[MJO812]

No talk about the Nam ? Very close. Eastern LI and SNE Snowstorm.

[Stormlover74]

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Outlier atm but I wonder if the models are wrong about the norlun and the low ends up more west.

The flow is fast so not sure how far west it can come.

[Tatamy]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No talk about the Nam ? Very close. Eastern LI and SNE Snowstorm.

You do realize that the NAM is literally an ocean apart from all the other guidance.  Good luck with the remaining runs from the 0z suite.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

You do realize that the NAM is literally an ocean apart from all the other guidance.  Good luck with the remaining runs from the 0z suite.

We can't talk about it on a weather forum ?

 

Weird

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We can't talk about it on a weather forum ?

 

Weird

You are currently talking about it. Were your posts deleted? I’m confused as to why you think you can’t?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

You are currently talking about it. Were your posts deleted? I’m confused as to why you think you can’t?

Because people posting smart remarks on this subforum.  

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Because people posting smart remarks on this subforum.  

It’s the nam.

should be tossed until 24 hours out 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Because people posting smart remarks on this subforum.  

You’re a cop. Toughen up.