Prismshine Productions Posted December 30, 2024 Author Share Posted December 30, 2024 Well...Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Yeah I agree 1/6 is definitely a concern. But I still see a lot of variance on the ensembles. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said: Well... Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk posting 384 OP snow maps use to result in a ban.....in the old days 3 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 30, 2024 Author Share Posted December 30, 2024 posting 384 OP snow maps use to result in a ban.....in the old daysStorm got can kicked by three days due to the air mass blockSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: Did you install? Unreal how warm it is out here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 30, 2024 Author Share Posted December 30, 2024 Unreal how warm it is out here It is a beautiful partly cloudy day here in the valley with a temp of 55Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Just now, Prismshine Productions said: It is a beautiful partly cloudy day here in the valley with a temp of 55 Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Shorts kind of day . Any kind of outdoor work you’re sweating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Unreal how warm it is out here It’s real and it’s spectacular. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drstuess Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On the topic of forecast accuracy, gfs forecast for the waves today has been as bad/off as I have seen in a while. This is comparing the buoy (line trace) to the latest GFS forecast for now. South swells often are late, so see if it fills in, but horrible so far.Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 10 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Well... Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 3 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 What's wild to think about is if we were to get a March '06 or '12 redux, we're only two months away from getting 70's and 80's 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What's wild to think about is if we were to get a March '06 or '12 redux, we're only two months away from getting 70's and 80's And we’re only a week or 10 days away from another start to Jan ‘11. So that’s the other side of the coin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Let the widespread panic begin! Ok 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Just now, WinterWolf said: And we’re only a week or 10 days away from another start to Jan 11. So that’s the other side of the coin. This is going to feel like the longest two weeks ever. We still have like another 5-6 days before that period gets around D5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Please refrain from posting maps that have 0.00% chance of verifying. A D10 has 0.01%, even a D5 only has a 50/50 chance. A day after snow map is still only 99% accurate. LOL D10 Ensemble Temp is ok but be ready to explain reasoning. Wanna talk about nice weather? It's 75F with a dew of 68F. Talk abounds about the FRIGID Arctic outbreak down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 24 minutes ago, dendrite said: It’s real and it’s spectacular. Get em out and aired! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 54 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Not get overly emotional on 200 hour OP runs? I can't force people to not get emotional and melt down, but it's legitimately irrational that amount of weight the OP runs get at that time lead. People can wait an hour and look at ensembles. But to each his own.... Will... One of these days you're going to get yourself banned for being too rational... Lol... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: This is going to feel like the longest two weeks ever. We still have like another 5-6 days before that period gets around D5 Yes and no..I feel that way a lot too. But for some reason this go around, I’m enjoying the myriad of different ideas and looks that have popped up. Im obviously Not expecting to cash in on all the potential, but I don’t know why, but I’m feeling some how we come out of this period decently. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1/2 is rain for sne .. .but, there's room/concern there for elevations of cne, with more column blue snow possibilities in maine 1/6 is a sub-index system .. i like to refer to those as maintenance events. as it leaves, the polar-arctic hybrid air floods in its wake, engulfing all of the np-gl-eventually ov and ma regions. that sets stage for the 8/9/10 arena ... 8/9/10 .. 11 still looms largely in the telecon/interpretation. this has been the case for a week now, with a very bright beacon. the recent operational gfs ( vastly too early to indict ...) runs have been oscillating between extraordinary solutions ... followed almost immediately upon the next run cycle, by almost nothing. this 12z run with a 990 mb closed sfc pressure contour that is the size of nearly tx, while at the same time ...essentially missing any event, is a ginormous warning flag for explosive potential. what i'm looking at in these operational runs is "too much of a good thing" you actually don't need 504 dm spv to subsume into the mid latitude flow in order to create something special. what's happening is that there is too much d(gz) between 40 N and the gom. that delta/excessive gradient is causing the s/stream s/w to rocket around the southern arc of the diving spv, at too fast of a rate ... so what ends up happening is that it outpaces - the prey runs faster than the predator. you can coherently see this slipping bipass between the s aspect ...out pacing the spv. the spv ends up deepening by non linear constructive feedback, with no help from cyclogen because the s stream trigger long gone. there are two competing cons trying to steal what is really just a fantastic opportunity. obviously, the winter enthusiasts among us with rather they both fail... but the first is, this tendency to over slope the heights in the mid latitude/velocity saturation thing is real. that's A. B, the models also have an amplitude bias in this d7-11 range. it's difficult to parse out if/and/or how much of either A or B is delimiting this thing... luckily for us, there is no real responsibility to correctness by any guidance beyond day 8 - it's really just a fun thing that we're even given those range. the telecon and the ensemble-based super synoptic indicators are really the most important aspect in that range. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 I heard someone say today that it feels like spring is arriving early. Little do they know… 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Yes and no..I feel that way a lot too. But for some reason this go around, I’m enjoying the myriad of different ideas and looks that have popped up. Im obviously Not expecting to cash in on all the potential, but I don’t know why, but I’m feeling some how we come out of this period decently. I really hope it works. Even if it doesn't we still have the rest of the month and February (even March) which can always deliver but if this winter ends up another dud...then I really hope we can start stringing together some neutral ENSO years. The entire atmosphere just needs to be flushed. This back-and-forth of Nino/Nina sucks. I bet if we had the neutral ENSO background state and got the good PAC/Arctic looks we would be cashing in handsomely or at least having seasons closer to average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 30, 2024 Author Share Posted December 30, 2024 I heard someone say today that it feels like spring is arriving early. Little do they know…Had a rule of thumb growing up in South Carolina that my grandparents taught me:"If it feels like Spring around New Years (which meant, for my childhood area, 70s) a big winter storm is around the corner and winter is returning worse than it left"It most certainly feels like Spring today (58°)Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I really hope it works. Even if it doesn't we still have the rest of the month and February (even March) which can always deliver but if this winter ends up another dud...then I really hope we can start stringing together some neutral ENSO years. The entire atmosphere just needs to be flushed. This back-and-forth of Nino/Nina sucks. I bet if we had the neutral ENSO background state and got the good PAC/Arctic looks we would be cashing in handsomely or at least having seasons closer to average. I hear ya Paul. Lots of potential, so just enjoy the modeling as we are still a week out at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 48 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Well... Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk only 15days away. stop the nonsense 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I heard someone say today that it feels like spring is arriving early. Little do they know… early? it's been winter for <10 days. what time did that someone start drinking this morning? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 3 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Let the widespread panic begin! I love his disclaimer 22 seconds before the end of the video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said: early? it's been winter for <10 days. what time did that someone start drinking this morning? Most all folks outside of these forums are oblivious and know absolutely nothing weather related, except what they see on TV, so not surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 3 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: only 15days away. stop the nonsense Ya…I wish that stuff would stop too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Most all folks outside of these forums are oblivious and know absolutely nothing weather related, except what they see on TV, so not surprising. 1000% Whole different world for non wx weenies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 7 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said: I love his disclaimer 22 seconds before the end of the video. This guy is the biggest clown. Every one of his videos starts off with either a massive storm or historic storm in the making or Arctic cold coming down ( he started talking about Arctic air coming down back in October like it was a big freaking Arctic outbreak ). Just let's do a couple of his videos and you'll see what I mean. I'm sure he loves the weather like we do, but for someone who is naive, he would surely make them cream their pants 10 times over, and it would all be for nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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