RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 I’m sure how epic this pattern looks, a big phaser will still find its way to run the surface low to Saratoga. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 12:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think Allison would be hiding the children from you at that point Expand They’d have to call in the SWAT team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 12:12 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I love the W NE crew trying to talk us in to that being palatable for e MA... Expand You're good. You got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 EPS is still fairly amplified for 1/6…and while there’s timing differences that overlap somewhat, there’s still two distinct event signals on the ensembles. 1/6-7 and 1/10-11…fairly similar to what we’ve been seeing on both Euro and GFS OP runs with two storms. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 12:41 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Heh....would be some interesting emotional swings if this were to play out. Expand What in the sam hell is that? Yrs olrase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 12:55 PM, ORH_wxman said: EPS is still fairly amplified for 1/6…and while there’s timing differences that overlap somewhat, there’s still two distinct event signals on the ensembles. 1/6-7 and 1/10-11…fairly similar to what we’ve been seeing on both Euro and GFS OP runs with two storms. Expand It matches the Euro op for Sunday night/ Monday. Getting close to having high confidence in that first one . Another day or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 30, 2024 Author Share Posted December 30, 2024 End of the GFS had a second one brewingSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 1:05 PM, Prismshine Productions said: End of the GFS had a second one brewing Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Expand I can hardly contain my excitement at an F384 depiction. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 12:57 PM, Damage In Tolland said: It matches the Euro op for Sunday night/ Monday. Getting close to having high confidence in that first one . Another day or two Expand OP Euro was a near-miss next Monday. But yeah, they are close....EPS is more amplified and gets precip into most of the region. My biggest concern is still suppression on these....the block in the NAO region is really strong and it's the type of setup where we've seen suppression in the past. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 30, 2024 Author Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 1:08 PM, moneypitmike said: I can hardly contain my excitement at an F384 depiction. Eh, only reason I am throwing it out there is to show there are still more chances Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 1:09 PM, ORH_wxman said: OP Euro was a near-miss next Monday. But yeah, they are close....EPS is more amplified and gets precip into most of the region. My biggest concern is still suppression on these....the block in the NAO region is really strong and it's the type of setup where we've seen suppression in the past. Expand Let's suppress and lock in the cold for pond skating. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 I seriously hope the 10th-12th period works out. Not optimistic about the period several days prior but please let this period work out. Feels like that period will never get here and its even crazier thinking that will be closing in on mid-January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 There’s definitely chances, but I agree with Will that the block is the bigger problem right now. If it doesn’t suppress it, it could shear it to flurries. This is for the 6-7. Too far away to comment on anything beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 1:12 PM, CoastalWx said: There’s definitely chances, but I agree with Will that the block is the bigger problem right now. If it doesn’t suppress it, it could shear it to flurries. This is for the 6-7. Too far away to comment on anything beyond that. Expand Lets go with the ICON solution of the block pinning part of the PV and then doing a partial PV phase with the main shortwave 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 1:11 PM, weatherwiz said: I seriously hope the 10th-12th period works out. Not optimistic about the period several days prior but please let this period work out. Feels like that period will never get here and its even crazier thinking that will be closing in on mid-January Expand On 12/30/2024 at 1:12 PM, CoastalWx said: There’s definitely chances, but I agree with Will that the block is the bigger problem right now. If it doesn’t suppress it, it could shear it to flurries. This is for the 6-7. Too far away to comment on anything beyond that. Expand This period will define the winter. If this fails to produce bigtime, its going to be another shitty season. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 I wish I was right about January being all Pacific driven....the added - NAO could shift the focus to the mid atl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 1:15 PM, ORH_wxman said: Lets go with the ICON solution of the block pinning part of the PV and then doing a partial PV phase with the main shortwave Expand lol I didn’t even look at that model. That would work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted December 30, 2024 Author Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 1:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wish I was right about January being all Pacific driven....the added - NAO could shift the focus to the mid atl.Need a hug?...Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 1:20 PM, CoastalWx said: lol I didn’t even look at that model. That would work. Expand Triple phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 1:20 PM, Prismshine Productions said: Need a hug?... Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Expand No. Need a blizzard. 3 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 1:21 PM, Kitz Craver said: Triple phase? Expand Let’s just get some snow first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 Skynet just outside the BM with a whopper: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 1:21 PM, Kitz Craver said: Triple phase? Expand Not on that depiction but it would probably be a monster storm if we had another few panels. There’s a lot of ways for that storm to work but there’s definitely a meat-grinder/suppression risk too. That’s my biggest concern looking at overnight guidance. That block is a pig. On one level, that block is very likely preventing 1/6 from being a big cutter…the 1/6 shortwave is amplifying quickly out in the plains which wound surely send the system into Ontario without any Atlantic confluence or blocking. But too much of a good thing is a possibility. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 1:24 PM, Go Kart Mozart said: Skynet just outside the BM with a whopper: Expand Works. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 1:25 PM, ORH_wxman said: Not on that depiction but it would probably be a monster storm if we had another few panels. There’s a lot of ways for that storm to work but there’s definitely a meat-grinder/suppression risk too. That’s my biggest concern looking at overnight guidance. That block is a pig. On one level, that block is very likely preventing 1/6 from being a big cutter…the 1/6 shortwave is amplifying quickly out in the plains which wound surely send the system into Ontario without any Atlantic confluence or blocking. But too much of a good thing is a possibility. Expand I would rather risk the cuttter...I hate the shredder scenarios. Even in the former, its probably a great front-ender. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 1:15 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This period will define the winter. If this fails to produce bigtime, its going to be another shitty season. Expand Certainly headed in that direction unless there is a significant pattern change.... 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 1:28 PM, Great Snow 1717 said: Certainly headed in that direction unless there is a significant pattern change.... Expand Well, there will be....that is high confidence. But we need the details to work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 We take the model developed by Miles Bennett Dyson. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 wtf is Skynet? I thought it was a media company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2024 Share Posted December 30, 2024 On 12/30/2024 at 1:46 PM, weathafella said: wtf is Skynet? I thought it was a media company. Expand You’ve never seen the Terminator movies? Same with the reference of the person above. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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