Joker January

[Damage In Tolland]

Wearing sneakers out in ice and snow ice fishing ?

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Bryce is growing up fast!

Kid is a weed lol. Getting tall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know. I took a look at the models this morning, and I just was like I cannot believe we can’t catch a break. It’s the same shit. I know exactly where this clipper is heading, groundhog day will rain and then once again we wait for more unicorns and ponies. I hate feeling this way but it’s tiresome. 
 

Just enjoy what little winter we have I guess. 

Go back and look at the PNA ridge prior to the 1/11 fail...its like the spitting incarnation of this one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12z AI looks about dead-nuts on 00z.

[mahk_webstah]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Poor kids, I keep telling them stories about 2015 and they look at me like I have two heads. That’s my son on the left and his friend both a big Snow weenies.

I can’t believe he’s that big already.  I remember the little baby and toddler pics you posted and that doesn’t seem like too long ago.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I can’t believe he’s that big already.  I remember the little baby and toddler pics you posted and that doesn’t seem like too long ago.

He’s been through some epic blizzards but doesn’t remember them. Feb 2013, Jan 2015 etc. Fortunately both my kids  remember the Jan 2022 blizzard well. 

They think it doesn’t snow anymore. But I told them the winters of my childhood weren’t too different from this. It was awfully hard to have a snowy stretch. I said I always kept hearing my parents talk about the winters in the 60s growing up, blizzard of 78 etc. But I did tell them that maybe after this year it might change for several years going into a different regime.

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s been through some epic blizzards but doesn’t remember them. Feb 2013, Jan 2015 etc. Fortunately both my kids  remember the Jan 2022 blizzard well. 

They think it doesn’t snow anymore. But I told them the winters of my childhood weren’t too different from this. It was awfully hard to have a snowy stretch. I said I always kept hearing my parents talk about the winters in the 60s growing up, blizzard of 78 etc. But I did tell them that maybe after this year it might change for several years going into a different regime.

I hope at least one of mine’s a snow weenie

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

I hope at least one of mine’s a snow weenie

Trying to keep it that way, but he’s frustrated lol. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s been through some epic blizzards but doesn’t remember them. Feb 2013, Jan 2015 etc. Fortunately both my kids  remember the Jan 2022 blizzard well. 

They think it doesn’t snow anymore. But I told them the winters of my childhood weren’t too different from this. It was awfully hard to have a snowy stretch. I said I always kept hearing my parents talk about the winters in the 60s growing up, blizzard of 78 etc. But I did tell them that maybe after this year it might change for several years going into a different regime.

I think the dire times are done after this year....largely due to the Pacific, as descending solar post MAX is rough for -AO/NAO for a few years...but TBH, +AO/NAO and a great PAC is probably the ideal paradigm for NE in terms of snowfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Weenie me all you want, but if we have an El Niño next year, its likely to a modest Modoki and ENSO in conjunction with the solar cycle will render 2014-2015 a quality analog.

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s been through some epic blizzards but doesn’t remember them. Feb 2013, Jan 2015 etc. Fortunately both my kids  remember the Jan 2022 blizzard well. 

They think it doesn’t snow anymore. But I told them the winters of my childhood weren’t too different from this. It was awfully hard to have a snowy stretch. I said I always kept hearing my parents talk about the winters in the 60s growing up, blizzard of 78 etc. But I did tell them that maybe after this year it might change for several years going into a different regime.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We try to enjoy 

I mean, I’d be happy to loan you some some tip-ups?   That way you can at least be doing something else while nothing is biting.

[radarman]

27 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I mean, I’d be happy to loan you some some tip-ups?   That way you can at least be doing something else while nothing is biting.

Only thing I caught this evening was aggressive little bluegills jigging a spoon.  No flags.

Love being out on the ice though.  A foot thick in spots right now, awesome run of cold wx.

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/some-light-snow-possible-mid-week.html

[DavisStraight]

37 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I mean, I’d be happy to loan you some some tip-ups?   That way you can at least be doing something else while nothing is biting.

I used to skate around; my uncle was a former semi-professional hocky player so we'd zoom around the ice and if a flag was up, we were there in 10 seconds. Looks like it needs a bit of shoveling today.

[78Blizzard]

18z GFS doubled down on Wed with enhanced qpf throughout.  Time for the others to catch up.

Although we are closer in on this, if I remember correctly, the last storm the GFS led the way, albeit too bullish, while the EURO was ots until it finally got a clue.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Weenie me all you want, but if we have an El Niño next year, its likely to a modest Modoki and ENSO in conjunction with the solar cycle will render 2014-2015 a quality analog.

BTW, anyone associating use of that analog with 90" in 30 days or 115" on the season is the weenie.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

BTW, anyone associating use of that analog with 90" in 30 days or 115" on the season is the weenie.

That season would fit the recent trend of very little snow before late Jan. 

[MJO812]

Euro weeklies are cold with alot of precip for February

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/some-light-snow-possible-mid-week.html

Hopefully it just misses. Have to take the train into Boston Wednesday for a meeting

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

My weenie is cold with not a lot  of fluid for February

Innie not an outtie? 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Best pond ice we’ve seen in quite some time

[Prismshine Productions]

18z GFS doubled down on Wed with enhanced qpf throughout.  Time for the others to catch up.
Although we are closer in on this, if I remember correctly, the last storm the GFS led the way, albeit too bullish, while the EURO was ots until it finally got a clue.
 

I would take another 5"

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[HoarfrostHubb]

GFS would be 3-6” here.  Selling that for now

[George001]

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

This is a good reminder that as “cold” as this winter has been, it really has only been slightly BN. AGW has skewed our perspective, a slightly below normal winter feels like we entered the ice box because it’s been so fucking warm the past decade. I’m guilty of this myself, having referred to December as a cold month and January as “frigid”. Our senses may lie, but the data doesn’t. Our climate is changing right under our noses and we just sort of adjust to it, it becomes the new normal. Really, it puts things in perspective the extent climate change has progressed.

[78Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I would take another 5"

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 

So would I.  Another 5" would get me to 19" for the season, halfway there with Feb still ahead of us.

[Prismshine Productions]

So would I.  Another 5" would get me to 19" for the season, halfway there with Feb still ahead of us.

5" would get me to 26... Still below 50% of seasonal (56.5) so I am getting kinda concerned of even biting last year's 42.5

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

1-3 south of 90 and 3-6 north . Watch Euro pull that to Maine 

[George001]

21 minutes ago, George001 said:

This is a good reminder that as “cold” as this winter has been, it really has only been slightly BN. AGW has skewed our perspective, a slightly below normal winter feels like we entered the ice box because it’s been so fucking warm the past decade. I’m guilty of this myself, having referred to December as a cold month and January as “frigid”. Our senses may lie, but the data doesn’t. Our climate is changing right under our noses and we just sort of adjust to it, it becomes the new normal. Really, it puts things in perspective the extent climate change has progressed.

I thought I understood what Tip was talking about in terms of the human psychology and many forms of climate change denial, from full blown brain damage levels of denial to simply underestimating its reach, but I didn’t. I think it finally clicked for me, the whole false narrative about how cold this winter has been…. one that I fell into myself, relying on my senses rather than the actual facts, that IS a form of soft denial. When it’s super obvious like hitting 80 degrees in Feb, that’s a different story. But cold snaps being a little less cold over time, warm stretches being a little longer….. all these little things. Our senses don’t detect them. I don’t know if it’s our subconscious not wanting to face the reality of HOW fucked we are or something else, but it’s clear that there is some kind of bias rooted in human nature that leads to society as a whole underestimating climate change.

I’m disappointed in myself for allowing myself to succumb to climate change denial of ANY form. I should know better, we all should. The narrative about how frigid this winter has been, it’s all a lie. The comparisons to 13-14, that’s bullshit too. 

[Snowcrazed71]

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1-3 south of 90 and 3-6 north . Watch Euro pull that to Maine 

Maybe the Euro will pull your Outie to Maine