Joker January

[WinterWolf]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

jesus

At least we’re in a trough lol.  What’s your feeling on that look Brooklyn? 

[brooklynwx99]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

At least we’re in a trough lol.  What’s your feeling on that look Brooklyn? 

i mean, with the decaying block, -EPO, and even some split flow, could be a larger storm in early Jan

seems like the block is actually useful with all of the negative anomalies in the N Atl. resembles a Modoki Nino pattern honestly

[George001]

3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

near normal is fine in early Jan

It is, but my worry is that it is more like 20-21 where the air masses are marginal rather than the early 2010s. 20-21 was fine snow wise, but it wasn’t that cold. I don’t like seeing all that warmth in Canada.

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

It is, but my worry is that it is more like 20-21 where the air masses are marginal rather than the early 2010s. 20-21 was fine snow wise, but it wasn’t that cold. I don’t like seeing all that warmth in Canada.

as long as the flow is coming out of northern Canada and the Arctic, it can be as warm as it wants up there. usually Canada being ice cold means that the colder air is bottled up instead of being displaced to our latitude

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just give me an active January pattern and I’ll take my chances with temps. 

[WinterWolf]

Ya ask a question to a MET…And  you get shit enojied..what a place.  Sad. 

[George001]

49 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Just give me an active January pattern and I’ll take my chances with temps. 

I’m the other way around. I’m sick of these garbage ass post 2016 marginal air masses, give me those early 2010s air masses and I’ll take my chances with precip. 

[weathafella]

2 hours ago, George001 said:

I’m the other way around. I’m sick of these garbage ass post 2016 marginal air masses, give me those early 2010s air masses and I’ll take my chances with precip. 

I don’t anyone has a choice but 2012-13 high snow but mild winter is ideal for me.  2/8/13 began with marginal temperatures but who wouldn’t take 2-3 feet again?  Same for 3/8/13 but snow more like 18-24

[WinterWolf]

33 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I don’t anyone has a choice but 2012-13 high snow but mild winter is ideal for me.  2/8/13 began with marginal temperatures but who wouldn’t take 2-3 feet again?  Same for 3/8/13 but snow more like 18-24

The blizzard of 2013 here was quite cold right from the start here..nothing marginal at all.  Maybe because you were near Boston?  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

The blizzard of 2013 here was quite cold right from the start..nothing marginal at all.  Maybe because you were near Boston?  

Started early morning, was pixie dust at my house in Seymour. However, It was marginal at the coast took a while to stick to the roads until the afternoon, I drove to Norwalk to work and the roads were just wet til the goods came late. Then temps tanked.. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Started early morning, was pixie dust at my house in Seymour. However, It was marginal at the coast took a while to stick to the roads until the afternoon, I drove to Norwalk to work and the roads were just wet til the goods came late. Then temps tanked.. 

oh ok..inland here it was cold and everything stuck from the first flakes…had about 4-5” by the time the sun was going down…And then it went absolutely insane..with 6”/hr rates. What a beast. 

[bristolri_wx]

On 12/17/2024 at 10:15 AM, weatherwiz said:

Since we don't get these anymore we may need to derive some acronyms for our cutters and rain storms.  

HC - Hair Cutter

CC - Coors Cutter

WC - Wrist Cutter

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

The dreaded rolled over AK ridge with WC troughing showing up on gefs for early Jan. Luckily it has a Davis block so there is overrunning potential. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 12/18/2024 at 9:27 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

DT beginning to honk about Jan 3-4...book that, as I'll be in Beth Israel changing diapers.

 

14 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

'syzygy' storm, 1986 i believe it was.   then later on 10 years later, the 'megalopolis blizzard,'  1996  ... at first i was thinking there's been a dearth (historically ) of events in the first 10 days of january's. then i'm like, whaaaa.    i think it's just the last 10 year's worth of winters doing a fantastic job at gaslighting my memory ..heh.  

starting to like the 2-6th

F....M.....L

[brooklynwx99]

would be hilarious if we got the Modoki pattern during a La Nina. open STJ and everything

 

[Typhoon Tip]

that's one helluva a cold signal in the super synoptic projection -  like to see the mjo swing around... but i'm willing to bet it unfurls in the rmm guide given time. 

that latter aspect is interesting ... as much as the phase 5 [apparently so ] neg interfered and kept this +pna lower frequency, that may be an indicator that the overall timing of the forcing is in sync on the left side/Americas

[SnowGoose69]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

would be hilarious if we got the Modoki pattern during a La Nina. open STJ and everything

 

It seems to me non coupling Ninas/Ninos are becoming more of a thing, 18-19, to some degree last year despite the fact it was a stronger Nino and now maybe this one.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It seems to me non coupling Ninas/Ninos are becoming more of a thing, 18-19, to some degree last year despite the fact it was a stronger Nino and now maybe this one.

we've actually been onto that and other aspects surrounding the increasingly enso uncoupled periods of vaguely correlative hemisphere's, going back many years in this subforum actually.    agreed -

[Typhoon Tip]

18 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

F....M.....L

yeah ... females are awesome    ?    what does that mean

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah ... females are awesome    ?    what does that mean

His life is fuked…

FukMyLife

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

would be hilarious if we got the Modoki pattern during a La Nina. open STJ and everything

 

Yea gefs improved, kinda kicked out the WC trough and establishes a weenie look along the EC. Eps is banging it hard too. 
 

We pray this ain’t fools gold though and more than just being pretty at h5. 

[ORH_wxman]

EPS is full-on weenie mode the first week of January. We’ll see as we get closer but this is good

 

@Typhoon Tip will like seeing the lower height anomalies piercing the gulf coast…reducing those hyper speed gradients we’ve seen when we have SE ridging…like bouncing a shortwave off a trampoline…more chance to dig on this type of pattern  

 

[FXWX]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is full-on weenie mode the first week of January. We’ll see as we get closer but this is good

 

@Typhoon Tip will like seeing the lower height anomalies piercing the gulf coast…reducing those hyper speed gradients we’ve seen when we have SE ridging…like bouncing a shortwave off a trampoline…more chance to dig on this type of pattern  

 

If it verifies, it would certainly open the door to northern stream energy digging further south than we've seen in quite a few years?  Will see how the next several days trend.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

His life is fuked…

FukMyLife

Ok but why?  lol 

[brooklynwx99]

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is full-on weenie mode the first week of January. We’ll see as we get closer but this is good

 

@Typhoon Tip will like seeing the lower height anomalies piercing the gulf coast…reducing those hyper speed gradients we’ve seen when we have SE ridging…like bouncing a shortwave off a trampoline…more chance to dig on this type of pattern  

 

yeah, it’s a very open flow… ripe for amplification. the block is actually doing its job too with the clogged up N ATL

[Prismshine Productions]

Ok but why?  lol 

That time frame is when his wife should be giving birth

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

that looks like an odd suggestion of an El Niño stj undercutting a whopper La Niña EPO  

 

[ORH_wxman]

On 12/19/2024 at 9:13 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

'syzygy' storm, 1986 i believe it was.   then later on 10 years later, the 'megalopolis blizzard,'  1996  ... at first i was thinking there's been a dearth (historically ) of events in the first 10 days of january's. then i'm like, whaaaa.    i think it's just the last 10 year's worth of winters doing a fantastic job at gaslighting my memory ..heh.  

starting to like the 2-6th

Jan 1-2, 1987 was the syzygy storm. That one dumped 18-24” in a narrow band from your area up toward Nashua. ORH had something like 14”…but there was a nice weenie enhanced zone just NW of the ptype issues. 
 

There was, of course, an incredible storm tide with that. Not sure if you had previously mentioned you were on the North Shore for that or if it was another event. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ok but why?  lol 

3 kids and a 4th coming? 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

His life is fuked…

FukMyLife

For My Loss