Joker January

[Typhoon Tip]

LOL  ... here's a vastly easier prediction:  this course work will incense some fights ...

let's just enjoy the deep winter vibe out there today for now.   haha

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Obviously ... buuuut, that's relative to the pattern foot

In this case we've benefited from episodic -EPOs.   We lose that ... then the other aspects may become dominant.  That's not beyond the expectation given the three factors outlined above.

We can certainly question whether these advanced lead telecons are true or not, but 'warm ups have been underperforming' loses out to a scaffolding change in the hemisphere.  

The other question, is that really true re warm ups?  I don't recall any warm ups forecast in quite some time.  I dunno - maybe I missed one..

There have been a couple 384 hr big heat maps posted from the obvious trolls that never happened, a few times over the last month, or at least no where near to the extent that it was shown from 16 days out.   That’s why I questioned the 16 day Op lead time.  Lots can be, and many times are wrong as you know with a prog like that..in either direction.   But interesting nonetheless. 

[Typhoon Tip]

27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

There have been a couple 384 hr big heat maps posted from the obvious trolls that never happened, a few times over the last month, or at least no where near to the extent that it was shown from 16 days out.   That’s why I questioned the 16 day Op lead time.  Lots can be, and many times are wrong as you know with a prog like that..in either direction.   But interesting nonetheless. 

Yeah, so my intent wasn't a forecast.   

Obviously forecasts approach unknowable by the time the models get out to 360 hours.   That said, there are long lead indicators that show non-zero value in assessing where the risks periods are/whence they may emerge.   No one thought heading into the end of January in 2017 that the next month would see an 82 F at FIT, embedded in a week of 68 to 74s.  Other Febs in the last 10 years had big warm ups to varying degrees.

- those kinds of breaks from normalcy ( if anything ...), it is incumbent to try and identify them ahead.

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, so my intent wasn't a forecast.   

Obviously forecasts approach unknowable by the time the models get out to 360 hours.   That said, there are long lead indicators the show non-zero value in assessing where the risks periods are/whence they may emerge.   No one thought heading into the end of January in 2017 that the next month would see an 82 F at FIT, embedded in a week of 68 to 74s.  Other Febs in the last 10 years had big warm ups to varying degrees.

- those kinds of breaks from normalcy ( if anything ...), it is incumbent to try and identify them ahead.

Understandable…Fair enough. 

[weatherwiz]

6 hours ago, dendrite said:

This is quite the headline map. Gotta love a WSW along 2/3 of the gulf coast.

More added now. Curious if we see any ice storm warnings in southeast Georgia and Florida Panhandle. 

[Lava Rock]

MWN gusting to 89mph, windchill -57F.

[Typhoon Tip]

guess we can add this to the list

 

"An eastward propagating Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent MJO historically favors a warm
response over the central and eastern CONUS, which would be a welcome change to the frigid
conditions experienced recently for much of the Lower 48."

[moneypitmike]

I vote for shutting this thread down and fast-forwarding to a February one.  What a snoozer.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I vote for shutting this thread down and fast-forwarding to a February one.  What a snoozer.

It may be one of the top 3 driest though no one knows . And I don’t mean from booze 

[Allsnow]

 

[Cold Miser]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wonder if this will go down as one of driest Jan’s on record . Little rain or snow . Anyone look?

 

[Damage In Tolland]

NW trend continues on Wed this week. Cape and south shore now in the game for some snow. Friday should do same 

[bristolri_wx]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Got in the truck to move it after watching the fantastic inauguration and as cold as it is the inside had some warmth after sitting in the sun . That Tippy sun angle is getting more noticeable 

I look forward to a revolution of common sense in your AWX posts in the future!

[Torch Tiger]

Sun angle certainly a growing factor going forward.  Even today you could see the sun-drenched trimmings of pack across SE MA

[ORH_wxman]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NW trend continues on Wed this week. Cape and south shore now in the game for some snow. Friday should do same 

Next Monday looks like best chance. Mid-week the Cape might get a C-2” type scraping. But I’d be shocked if it came NW of that. 

[Torch Tiger]

Cape was never out of the game for the scraper, but I don't see too much credible evidence more NW than that.  Flurries I suppose

[alex]

Already down to 0F

[Torch Tiger]

18z gfs is frigid end of month, wow.  *edit* more Central NA focused, as others have talked about.  But it's damn cold

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

I vote for shutting this thread down and fast-forwarding to a February one.  What a snoozer.

It just snowed last night, who knows if maybe another storm pops up, it's only the 20th and we have the cold.

[Spanks45]

GFS has a bunch of clippers out there, would be nice to get one just south of us......not the Gulf of Mexico

[Prismshine Productions]

15 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

It just snowed last night, who knows if maybe another storm pops up, it's only the 20th and we have the cold.

26th-29th I am monitoring

[Modfan2]

Down to 13F so far, decent cold. How low do we go? 

[Torch Tiger]

11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

GFS has a bunch of clippers out there, would be nice to get one just south of us......not the Gulf of Mexico

scientifically yes.  but eh, it's going to be a miracle 

[Chrisrotary12]

My buddy in Atlanta.... "Wait, am I too far north for snow?"

[DavisStraight]

23 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Down to 13F so far, decent cold. How low do we go? 

I think low single digits tonight, don't think we go below zero unless you're in a good rad spot, I'm not.

[DavisStraight]

35 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

GFS has a bunch of clippers out there, would be nice to get one just south of us......not the Gulf of Mexico

You mean the Gulf of America

[Lava Rock]

7F. At least the wind died down.

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[alex]

-6 with deck cracking loudly 

[DavisStraight]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

7F. At least the wind died down.

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk


 

I thought we had a squall this afternoon but it was just the wind blowing snow off the trees. Almost froze my fingers off snow blowing, need to get a blower with heated hand grips.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, Spanks45 said:

GFS has a bunch of clippers out there, would be nice to get one just south of us......not the Gulf of Mexico

America