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using the CFS as a pattern sniffer (it actually has been doing decent picking out event timelines at range for once), it has a coastal for EoR Friday, then a Montreal Clipper on the 27th, a light clipper Feb.6th, then it gets really busy with a coastal train 2/11-19,, jsut going to look out for those time ranges at this point

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23 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Most of us should get to zero or below, looks like Ohio is taking a good hit from the cold 25-30 below with probably a few weenie spots getting colder than that.

My guess is models are a little warm across the rad areas that just got fresh snow, but itll depend on how much it can calm off. Neither night looks real windy, but Wednesday has the best shot.

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35 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

My guess is models are a little warm across the rad areas that just got fresh snow, but itll depend on how much it can calm off. Neither night looks real windy, but Wednesday has the best shot.

Thought there was talk yesterday that the core of the cold wasn’t going to make it in here?  We have been down to 1-2F already this season, and I am expecting about the same.

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1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

Thought there was talk yesterday that the core of the cold wasn’t going to make it in here?  We have been down to 1-2F already this season, and I am expecting about the same.

Core definetely will be west. Looks comparable to what we've seen, maybe a little lower in the rad pits. 

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41 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Looks like cold shot after cold shot, just need some precipitation to come our way.

Checked our 500gal LP tank and we're down to 45%. Typically we're around 60% at this time of the winter as I fill in Nov. We've been burning the woodstove too which will offset some LP, but I was surprised we're down as low as we are. Usually we'll roll into April with 20% and I don't bother filling again till Fall.

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13 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Checked our 500gal LP tank and we're down to 45%. Typically we're around 60% at this time of the winter as I fill in Nov. We've been burning the woodstove too which will offset some LP, but I was surprised we're down as low as we are. Usually we'll roll into April with 20% and I don't bother filling again till Fall.

Yeah I mentioned in another thread my pellet stove is devouring pellets.  Full time job keeping up with it.  I got 3 tons through it almost so it's going to be a 6 ton season and it's been awhile since that's happened.  

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Euro's buckin' for a heat burst at the end of the run

582 dm non-hydrostatic hgts nearing the latitude of NYC on Feb 4 is probably nearing some sort of metrical record in that regard.

A few days, if even weeks ago, I cited 3 reasons ( conceptual ) why this February was suspect for a shock and awe warm up - I can't find it now but it's back there buried somewhere.

It's worth it to try and forecast those as they are a distinctly new phenomenon to our climate, where Feb temp extremes have exceeding 70 if not approaching 80 F have occurred a few times since 2012.  

Basically it was:  (La NIna spring climo) + ( propensity for warm surges in Feb in recent year's worth) + (present warm indicators)

(A + B + C)/3 = plenty of justification for suspecting this February as hosting some warm air to put it nicely. 

The 28th - 2nd may be an inflection in the mass fields ...exiting a cold one.  Good time to get some sort of event to take place

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Warm ups have been underperforming this season. End of an op run…hmm? 

Obviously ... buuuut, that's relative to the pattern foot

In this case we've benefited from episodic -EPOs.   We lose that ... then the other aspects may become dominant.  That's not beyond the expectation given the three factors outlined above.

We can certainly question whether these advanced lead telecons are true or not, but 'warm ups have been underperforming' loses out to a scaffolding change in the hemisphere.  

The other question, is that really true re warm ups?  I don't recall any warm ups forecast in quite some time.  I dunno - maybe I missed one..

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