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Joker January


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I thought the end of the 18z euro looked better, but there’s nothing really going on at the surface yet, maybe too positively tilted idk. There’s some GEFs members that turn this wave into a snowstorm so we’ll see what happens at 00z

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91778a1aaeb08ff25da1ee3a205973a4.jpg


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19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Canadian is buying next weekend too

Does the track of Sunday night affect Wednesday/Thursday and or the weekend chance? I'm guessing the former is dead but I was thinking the farther west Sunday night is the more chance the baroclinic zone remains closer to the coast for next weekend.

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I’m having a hard time putting my finger on a recent similar winter to this one so far.  I’m 43 so those 80s winters aren’t really in my memory.  Our winter is a bit different than what you have further east.  13-14? 

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Yeah agreed. Imho 24th/25th has been on the proverbial risk assessment desk for a long while.   I remember Will and I bringing that up like 4 days ago?    

It's developing on a the inflection of a mass-field change.  Events are preferential to those periods.  Even this one tomorrow is on inflection - we mild today...transition tonight, boom tomorrow.  It's matter of scaling. 

The deepest cold air earlier in the week is trying to roll off the continent.  As it does ... heights tend to relax and the elephant sitting on a trampoline look becomes a little more flaccid.   So.. a trough has been well timed in that space going back a few days ... more so, then at other times less, but keeps showing up.  We'll see.    

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24 minutes ago, George001 said:

I like the setup for threat 3 a lot better than threat 2, but the one that excites me the most is tomorrow’s storm. 

1/24 is more likely than 1/22. I think 1/22 is pretty much gone though can’t rule out some weenie snow on the Cape. Had a fleeting chance still maybe 12h ago but models are pretty happy to punt it now. 

1/24 has some work to do but there’s enough interest on ensemble guidance to keep following.

 

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29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1/24 is more likely than 1/22. I think 1/22 is pretty much gone though can’t rule out some weenie snow on the Cape. Had a fleeting chance still maybe 12h ago but models are pretty happy to punt it now. 

1/24 has some work to do but there’s enough interest on ensemble guidance to keep following.

 

Hopefully get another event before EOM.

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