Joker January

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Zzzz, we were below -30 last year

Zzz?ZZZ? Cmon that's cold and windy unlike last year 

[HoarfrostHubb]

30 minutes ago, kdxken said:

You'll have a reason to shake. Have one of the kids warm up the car.

Or, I could (after the official club hours are over), slip into the Coppertop and have an Irish Coffee... 

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have zero appetite for mediocrity, in sports or weather- Either be a viable SB contender, or amass high draft picks and give me a day of intrigue in June.

Weird 

[Ginx snewx]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/cold-january-with-notable-lack-of-major.html

I disagree with your premise. In fact with a shift in flow, it appears more favorable for slower moving large moist systems.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro doesn't quite amplify Jan 24th enough....but obviously that's still 200 hours out....it does give a hefty snowstorm for 1/29 but that is clown range.

There does seem to be some opportunity in that final week-plus of the month though.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

This looks fun.

That's freakishly uniform - all of New England with an H8 within 2C?  The entire map within 8C.

[CoastalWx]

Man we lock that run.

[Allsnow]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro doesn't quite amplify Jan 24th enough....but obviously that's still 200 hours out....it does give a hefty snowstorm for 1/29 but that is clown range.

There does seem to be some opportunity in that final week-plus of the month though.

 

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man we lock that run.

Looked good for the start of February too.

I've noticed on the ensembles too they are beating down the SE ridge. It's still there, but we're north of the gradient, which is what we want to see.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

 

Just mentioned above in my post to Scott that the Euro ensembles have been reducing the SE ridge....but a bit of model battle because the GEFS have it more stout for the beginning of February.

[RDRY]

Congrats New Orleans?

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looked good for the start of February too.

I've noticed on the ensembles too they are beating down the SE ridge. It's still there, but we're north of the gradient, which is what we want to see.

yup. EPS has been consistently pressing it down 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just mentioned above in my post to Scott that the Euro ensembles have been reducing the SE ridge....but a bit of model battle because the GEFS have it more stout for the beginning of February.

A blend is kind of Leon with undertones of Wilton Felder in there.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

A blend is kind of Leon with undertones of Wilton Felder in there.

IF we can keep that ridge nice and poleward into the Bering and north of it, then I think we'll continue to have chances even if we have to deal with a cutter mixed in at some point. It will keep loading the source region with arctic air so the airmasses won't become perpetually stale.

[Sn0waddict]

16 minutes ago, RDRY said:

Congrats New Orleans?

Was coming here to say the same thing lol that’s wild.

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Only one page of posts between 9:30 and 12,:30 in January tells you all you need to know.

beer, and lots of it

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Zzzz, we were below -30 last year

Doesn’t mean it’s still not cold lol.

[alex]

Spectacular day

[Typhoon Tip]

The GFS versIon of the flow medium across the country has a definitive difference to the Euro leading the 24th.   Not sure which will turn out ultimately real.

GFS has a western ridge node moving bodily eastward thru southwestern Canada/Pac NW leading up thru the 23rd and that allows less shearing with the trough back east in its solution --> system up the EC.  

Euro holds this ridge node farther west; in fact, it's not even clear if it ever comes east, rather just sort of dissolves.  Anyway, that opens the flow up in the east. Wave space arguments become a negative interference for amplitude --> no system up the EC

[HoarfrostHubb]

Maybe we can get a mini version of 2015 going

[H2Otown_WX]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Maybe we can get a mini version of 2015 going

How bout a regular version centered 100-150 miles southwest?

[metagraphica]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, agreed ... the 23-25th is probably the next viable risk period -  nod to any model that speeds that up by a day between now and then, because of the underlying mode of circulation being what it is - fast.

Just something that's been air apparent to me about that period, is that said mode of circulation is slowing.   I spoke at length about this, yesterday, ...and then immediately the Euro's 12z run "re-compressed" the flow.   The GFS however has maintained its idea of slowing things enough that the next series of wave mechanics have better ability to conserve it's total vitality as it runs up the flow at that time.  That's why it's been more robust with that development.  The CMC is not as relaxed... it's speeding up the same wave complex, but also has it suppressed because -

time to iron this out.  But ...as the present event that's looking above median confidence at this point, was all but gone yesterday ... these compression patterns can be overcome, too

Seems like that is exactly what the fast flow is doing. Not allowing any wrinkles.

[kdxken]

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

How do you find the futility mark? Kinda curious what is is for Brattleboro

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

http://climod2.nrcc.cornell.edu

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

IF we can keep that ridge nice and poleward into the Bering and north of it, then I think we'll continue to have chances even if we have to deal with a cutter mixed in at some point. It will keep loading the source region with arctic air so the airmasses won't become perpetually stale.

I think that is a reasonable ask for a lot of Feb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I disagree with your premise. In fact with a shift in flow, it appears more favorable for slower moving large moist systems.

Depends on how compressed the flow becomes....my preseason window was 1/23 to 2/3, but even if we don't see a KU per se, could still stack up plenty of snowfall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Weird 

Have fun being the Steelers right now...I'd rather be the Pats.