Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,706
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Mike Rosen
    Newest Member
    Mike Rosen
    Joined

Joker January

Prismshine Productions

By Prismshine Productions,
in New England

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 7.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

dendrite
dendrite
ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman
The 4 Seasons
The 4 Seasons

Season snowfall to date ending Jan 13th 2025. I'll probably do another update in a month in Feb then again in Mar as these are very time consuming. If anyone has anything they want to add or

Posted Images

40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Anyone know the futility record for ORH?   I'm guessing 12-15" or so... I'm sure it has been mentioned before

 

Nevermind... looks like around 8.7" from 1936-1997   That was at the old site I think

1979-1980 were close... 9.4"

ORH is probably low to mid 20s...its not 8.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted

I know it is the 6z GFS, at 384 hrs...But that look, reminds me of something we haven't seen in what seems like forever. Brings back memories for sure, I didn't really read all of yesterday's talk on storms that we used to get, maybe this was an example though...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wx2fish

wx2fish

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its 19.9" in Wilmington (1979-1980)...probably similar here.

Can't really find great data around here back that far, atleast for active sites.

88-89 has to be a contender too. 20.7" at the Hudson Coop. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

I have a feeling Sunday night is going to surprise. You have some nice PVA feeding in and we're on the nose of a pretty strong 500mb jet streak. There should be some great frontogenesis over the region too. This would be one where I think the heaviest banding of snow would be farther northwest than models indicate and there is a nice inverted trough feature. I think this could evolve into a 3-6" type event for much of the region and maybe as much as 6-9" where heaviest banding traverses. 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

k, so ... overdue arguments are shaky when it comes to statistics.   we understand what is meant by that - if a region should experience a given x-y-z every 4 ... 8... 12 years, etc, and that has not occurred, we say "due"    but the problem with that logic is that the statistical domain is not closed - it extends in interminably in the past, and future.   such that you can have 3 events in 3 years, and greatly expend your 'due' in the other direction, then, go 20 years without anything.   at 30 years, you look back, and that is why it's 4 times in 28... etc etc...  in other words, the interpretation of 'due', automatically becomes false if not considering the noise/frequency behavior, in the total history. 

having outlined all that ... now, consider a changing climate -

springs and autumns have really demoed increasing occurrences of quixotic extremes.    october presentations of snow and or cryo supportive synoptics have increased in frequency - this has also been true in springs ...as late as May, since the last 20 or so years of the 'hocky stick' acceleration.  these extremes make the "due" aspect above, even less useful.   it's almost safer and more logically clad to suggest that the climate expectation is for stochastic extremes, more so than the prior inference will allow the due thing to parlay very well. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

Man a little sharper on the Canadian and we'd be demolished.

Yeah I hope its' that wave that gets us....it's just choked with gulf moisture. Even verbatim, gets SE MA/Cape/RI with an advisory scraper. But back that NW a couple hundred miles and it's a blizzard.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Yeah, agreed ... the 23-25th is probably the next viable risk period -  nod to any model that speeds that up by a day between now and then, because of the underlying mode of circulation being what it is - fast.

Just something that's been air apparent to me about that period, is that said mode of circulation is slowing.   I spoke at length about this, yesterday, ...and then immediately the Euro's 12z run "re-compressed" the flow.   The GFS however has maintained its idea of slowing things enough that the next series of wave mechanics have better ability to conserve it's total vitality as it runs up the flow at that time.  That's why it's been more robust with that development.  The CMC is not as relaxed... it's speeding up the same wave complex, but also has it suppressed because -

time to iron this out.  But ...as the present event that's looking above median confidence at this point, was all but gone yesterday ... these compression patterns can be overcome, too

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

1!tOnly one page of posts between 9:30 and 12,:30 in January tells you all you need to know.

Yea I fnd it amazing there is zero talk about MLK day. 4 to 8 doesn’t matter to the spoiled. Lol Mike there is a thread 

  • saywhat? 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...