Joker January

[DavisStraight]

26 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Sounds like the same thing except you didn't get the rest.

I was lucky it hit me when I woke up one morning and just stayed home that day.

[Typhoon Tip]

so the euro 're-compresses' the flow in that time period now ... of course

anything more favorable looking between the 23rd and the end of the month was predicated on that relaxation - imho.  without it, it's more nuanced and far less predictive.

this is our problem ...    non-hydrostatic heights exceeding 594 dm in latter January near by E of the Bahamas, pressing up against a mid Canadian shield PV that's below 500.  

nothing is going to squeeze thru there and conserve enough of it's own mechanics capable of doing jack shit

 

[CoastalWx]

Some members of the EPS towards day 9 or so have something lurking off the coast. Something to watch in case the right s/w came pivoting south despite the Daytona 500(mb) running up the east coast.

[Typhoon Tip]

thank god then ... winter's half over today by met calendar. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

so the euro 're-compresses' the flow in that time period now ... of course

anything more favorable looking between the 23rd and the end of the month was predicated on that relaxation - imho.  without it, it's more nuanced and far less predictive.

this is our problem ...    non-hydrostatic heights exceeding 594 dm in latter January near by E of the Bahamas, pressing up against a mid Canadian shield PV that's below 500.  

nothing is going to squeeze thru there and conserve enough of it's own mechanics capable of doing jack shit

 

It was only a matter of time before this post was coming lol 

[Snowcrazed71]

14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It was only a matter of time before this post was coming lol 

Was just thinking the same thing. At this point, I feel like the only thing that's going to happen is a surprise. Everything modeled never turns out the way it shows, especially when it's showing something major and then as we get within a week of the event, it just gets squashed. 

I do feel we'll have that surprise, just don't know when.. uugghh

[Chrisrotary12]

5 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

How do you think I feel in the Summer  

I make a thread for convection...just general thunderstorms with maybe a rogue severe storm or two and everyone is screaming bust because there are no EF3s or widespread destructive winds or widespread hail...NO SHIT....never said there was going to be. 

But there’s also never any thunderstorms anymore. 

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It was only a matter of time before this post was coming lol 

might be time to start admitting certain large scale irrecoverable limitations

[HIPPYVALLEY]

In case anybody cares, today is the anniversary of the Great Molasses Flood in Boston.  It was definitely a weather related event.

https://www.history.com/news/great-molasses-flood-science

[HIPPYVALLEY]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

might be time to start admitting certain large scale irrecoverable limitations

Fast  flow, destructive interference, compression… it seems like it’s been going on for multiple years in a row now.

[doug1991]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Was just thinking the same thing. At this point, I feel like the only thing that's going to happen is a surprise. Everything modeled never turns out the way it shows, especially when it's showing something major and then as we get within a week of the event, it just gets squashed. 

I do feel we'll have that surprise, just don't know when.. uugghh

Late April early May???

[weathafella]

39 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

In case anybody cares, today is the anniversary of the Great Molasses Flood in Boston.  It was definitely a weather related event.

https://www.history.com/news/great-molasses-flood-science

I read a really good book about this.  Dark Tide by Stephen Puleo.  A bad case of corporate malfeasance for sure 106 years ago.

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I read a really good book about this.  Dark Tide by Stephen Puleo.  A bad case of corporate malfeasance for sure 106 years ago.

Only 21" of snow that season. Do you just let the molasses take you at that point?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

thank god then ... winter's half over today by met calendar. 

This makes me sad 

[MJO812]

[SouthCoastMA]

56 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Fast  flow, destructive interference, compression… it seems like it’s been going on for multiple years in a row now.

Doesn't seem like a large enough sample size to me to make any definitive correlations. Not saying there isn't though

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This makes me sad 

Not me, at this point. If I could opt out of this season right now, I would do so without blinking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Doesn't seem like a large enough sample size to me to make any definitive correlations. Not saying there isn't though

Depends on the pattern...it usually is an issue somewhere, it just depends on how the medium is slanted. This season, we're in the compression field, but south of us has done just fine.

[mreaves]

3 hours ago, kdxken said:

Heads up to folks out there.  There's a nasty virus going around. I thankfully very rarely catch any bugs. Probably been 25 years since the last time. Last night I started shaking uncontrollably, severe headache and pressure in the forehead. The girlfriend had it earlier in the week and a neighbor as well.

 

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I had something weird happen to me last night.    I run my school ski club. I basically sit in the Wachusett base lodge while the kids ski in case they need anything.  So, time to leave.  I had been sitting and standing inside for 4 hours.  Go to walk to my car.  Maybe 300 feet.  And it was chilly…20F, but nothing bad

When I got to my car, I had the worst case of shivering I can ever recall experiencing   I could barely open the door to the car and start it   It lasted around 3 or 4 minutes   I almost called 911, then it went away   

 

 

This exact same thing happened to me in late January/early February of 2020.  I have never had such uncontrollable shivering and general achiness.  It was before Covid blew up so I don't think it was that and it didn't last all that long, maybe 2 or 3 days. 

[SouthCoastMA]

28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends on the pattern...it usually is an issue somewhere, it just depends on how the medium is slanted. This season, we're in the compression field, but south of us has done just fine.

I just meant with cc, at least I think that's what was being implied by Tip. 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, doug1991 said:

Late April early May???

Exactly... LOL

[Snowcrazed71]

20 minutes ago, mreaves said:

 

This exact same thing happened to me in late January/early February of 2020.  I have never had such uncontrollable shivering and general achiness.  It was before Covid blew up so I don't think it was that and it didn't last all that long, maybe 2 or 3 days. 

Okay, all this talk about being sick and the shivers, please stop talking about it. I don't need to catch this from any of you.... Hahaha.

It does suck joe. We've been lucky in our house as of this season. My daughter just had a real bad cold but that was it. Hopefully we miss this round this year. Sorry to any of you who didn't

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Only 21" of snow that season. Do you just let the molasses take you at that point?

At this point, might as well.  Browsing through the mid Atlantic pages and see most down there have already beaten my 6" so far.

Bring on the slow molasses death. 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

At this point, might as well.  Browsing through the mid Atlantic pages and see most down there have already beaten my 6" so far.

Bring on the slow molasses death. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

44 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I just meant with cc, at least I think that's what was being implied by Tip. 

I know. 

[H2Otown_WX]

So CC has given us permanently fast/compressed flow? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Doesn't seem like a large enough sample size to me to make any definitive correlations. Not saying there isn't though

 

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends on the pattern...it usually is an issue somewhere, it just depends on how the medium is slanted. This season, we're in the compression field, but south of us has done just fine.

 

52 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I just meant with cc, at least I think that's what was being implied by Tip. 

 

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I know. 

My thoughts with respect to the CC/increased compression correlation are that its not reducing the frequency of major storms at any one location, as like I said above, you are going to be more pone to compression issues somewhere when you displace a PV southward. However, I do think that it makes a repeat of seasons like 1995, where it was a an orgy up and down the east coast, a much taller task because we are more likely to see that aforementioned "zone of compression" than we were decades ago. ...THAT is a manifestation of CC.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

So CC has given us permanently fast/compressed flow? 

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 

My thoughts with respect to the CC/increased compression correlation are that its not reducing the frequency of major storms at any one location, as like I said above, you are going to be more pone to compression issues somewhere when you displace a PV southward. However, I do think that it makes a repeat of seasons like 1995, where it was a an orgy up and down the east coast, a much taller task because we are more likely to see that aforementioned "zone of compression" than we were decades ago. ...THAT is a manifestation of CC.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Like most CC attributions, there is some merit to it, but folks (not directed at anyone in particular) get carried away with it and exaggerate said attribution.

[CoastalWx]

Hadley cell gonna swallow us hole.