weathafella Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: High on cocaine? You got it. Trouble ahead, trouble behind…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I bet the EURO comes in amped- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I bet the EURO comes in amped- Ill laugh if the euro and GFS trade places. its already happened once before on this system 2 days ago. I also think itll be an improvement but nothing like the 12/18 GFS, just my hunch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I bet the EURO comes in amped- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 … I’m just kidding, I’m as guilty of that as the next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said: Ill laugh if the euro and GFS trade places. its already happened once before on this system 2 days ago. I also think itll be an improvement but nothing like the 12/18 GFS, just my hunch Agreed, it never makes big moves. It will probably move like 40-50 miles NW. Interestingly I noted tonight's 00z GFS looks almost identical to that 2/15/14 Cape Cod special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: … I’m just kidding, I’m as guilty of that as the next I honestly think it will be more amped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 God, how the hell are we supposed to sleep? I get that we have exactly zero control over the outcome, but why do our bodies have to force us to bear witness?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I honestly think it will be more amped. If I had to bet real money, I bet it’ll essentially hold serve, with maybe a 50 mile buffer each direction. We will see, because the venn diagram for restfulness and weenie-dom is comprised of two separate circles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 I mean, if some are slitting their wrists over this type of variance on a day 5+ ensemble mean, most of this forum needs to hop on my caseload...shit. I accept BCBS, HP, and Tufts. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: You got it. Trouble ahead, trouble behind…. and you know that model just crossed my mind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Agreed, it never makes big moves. It will probably move like 40-50 miles NW. Interestingly I noted tonight's 00z GFS looks almost identical to that 2/15/14 Cape Cod special. Gross, at least with that ugly 2/15 there was literally a secs the day before with 10-15" and a warning event 3 days after. Wild back to back to back storms. This actually isnt that bad. A step back from 12/18 GFS but better than 6Z. UKMET is flat as a pancake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 There is more tug toward the NW of the mean relative to 18z, too....so the mean is probably skewed by a few that jumped ship over the Andrea Gale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 My mean snowfall plummeted from 3.5" to 3.3" (literally)....storm cancel. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Gross, at least with that ugly 2/15 there was literally a secs the day before with 10-15" and a warning event 3 days after. Wild back to back to back storms. This actually isnt that bad. A step back from 12/18 GFS but better than 6Z. UKMET is flat as a pancake. That was a great winter dude. Was that storm the day before the one where we had surprise extra snow from the ULL? Can't remember if it was that winter or if it was Feb 2015. I think it might have been '14. Yeah not a bad look. There are like 8 western members in the ensemble mean so we'll see. I don't like how the Canadian and Euro are almost in lockstep though. The only upside is I don't feel they can be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 It’s easy to confuse disappointment (true dopamine reward vs. expected reward) with real information 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My mean snowfall plummeted from 3.5" to 3.3" (literally)....storm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 Euro aint gonna cut it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I mean, if some are slitting their wrists over this type of variance on a day 5+ ensemble mean, most of this forum needs to hop on my caseload...shit. I accept BCBS, HP, and Tufts. Where do you get those maps? I tried to find them on Tidbits but no luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 7 Author Share Posted January 7 Just now, H2Otown_WX said: Where do you get those maps? I tried to find them on Tidbits but no luck WeatherBell 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said: That was a great winter dude. Was that storm the day before the one where we had surprise extra snow from the ULL? Can't remember if it was that winter or if it was Feb 2015. I think it might have been '14. Yeah not a bad look. There are like 8 western members in the ensemble mean so we'll see. I don't like how the Canadian and Euro are almost in lockstep though. The only upside is I don't feel they can be trusted. I remember that very well and talking to you that day. You are thinking of Feb 1 15. Surprise 5-6" as the sfc low exploded east of long island during the day. the first half of the storm was all WAA at night, then some sleet and it was supposed to be over. I was at 6" then got an extra 5.5" during the day. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/past-storms-14-15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Not gonna happen. I agree, it probably scoots due ENE, S of the Delmarva. Hopefully we get a surprise but I am not feeling this one. I'm not panicked about winter but this storm/atmospheric set up is tenuous and a carpet pull set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Euro aint gonna cut it Looks worse......yea. Oh well...give it until tomorrow @ 12z. Still want to see the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Euro is terrible. Thats it for the night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 We await EPS, not the shift we wanted from Europe’s flagship numerical weather prediction model 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: We await EPS, not the shift we wanted from Europe’s flagship numerical weather prediction model EURO had a massive bust in this range just last year with that storm that went way supressed to the south in February. Disheartening, but not done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: We await EPS, not the shift we wanted from Europe’s flagship numerical weather prediction model but what about the AIFS. AI is the future Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: but what about the AIFS. AI is the future Hear hear, maybe lets get DeepMind to build a superior AI weather prediction machine, since it has trounced all competition in the fields of chess and go. I trust Demis Hassabis with my life (and my social credit score if it comes down with it). Those brits sure know how to make a computer do their bidding, even if they euthanized Alan Turing because of that skill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: but what about the AIFS. AI is the future Dead nuts on 12z @ 18z....great win for that model if it's right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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