jbenedet Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 6:17 PM, brooklynwx99 said: this is really on a knife's edge. the GEPS shifting that much gives the GFS camp some credence Expand This reminds me of blizzard of 96 but more south/east - due to more confluence over the northeast. I referenced this pattern about a 12 days ago, and it's here...ready to deliver... I think you're in a good spot at this lead time based on latest guidance. So is the inside 95 crew of new england. North of there, yea, odds fall off fast but I'd be watching closely up to the pike. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 What a bust here! An inch of snow after nothing was forecast. Road crews caught off guard-lots of accidents 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Radar still looks pretty solid in southern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:09 PM, Brian5671 said: What a bust here! An inch of snow after nothing was forecast. Road crews caught off guard-lots of accidents Expand Maybe this is the winter of busts. We had our own nice bust here just before Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Northern stream is def a bit better on EPS but when it's not enough to produce the big dog, you are still going to get overwhelming majority of members out to sea....this is what I'm talking about with the non-linear response. It's not going to just slowly come NW by 25-50 miles each run....you'll likely see a whole bunch of members go nuclear if we start seeing the Euro suit phasing the streams better. Much like we're seeing on the GFS suite. 12z suite overall today was definitely a step forward, but we need another one at 00z. I think that's the 30 seconds cliff's notes version. 18 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Throwing it all in on this one, I've made up my mind. Winter for me is this weekend. 24" or bust for me. That's my bar...24". I want to be outside at 1:13 AM EST Sunday morning with my newly purchased yard stick I will be getting this week and sticking it in the snow as deep as I can and when it can't go in anymore...the top of the snow line better be at 24". 3 2 1 3 4 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:30 PM, weatherwiz said: Throwing it all in on this one, I've made up my mind. Winter for me is this weekend. 24" or bust for me. That's my bar...24". I want to be outside at 1:13 AM EST Sunday morning with my newly purchased yard stick I will be getting this week and sticking it in the snow as deep as I can and when it can't go in anymore...the top of the snow line better be at 24". Expand I feel the same way. 24" minimum, winds, and region-wide havoc. Give me 2-3 days of that, and I don't care what else happens between then and April. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:30 PM, weatherwiz said: I want to be outside at 1:13 AM EST Sunday morning with my newly purchased yard stick I will be getting this week and sticking it in as deep as I can and until it can't go in anymore...the line better be at 24". Expand Good luck 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 6:56 PM, Snowcrazed71 said: So I thought this video was interesting. Bernie does mention that the Euro has always had trouble burying the energy in the southwest incorrectly. But, he stopped short of saying that the GFS was the correct model. This at least gives hope for the storm this weekend. It's definitely an interesting video to watch Expand That was a helpful explanation for a casual onlooker like myself. It'll be interesting to see which model ultimately wins out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:30 PM, weatherwiz said: Throwing it all in on this one, I've made up my mind. Winter for me is this weekend. 24" or bust for me. That's my bar...24". I want to be outside at 1:13 AM EST Sunday morning with my newly purchased yard stick I will be getting this week and sticking it in the snow as deep as I can and when it can't go in anymore...the top of the snow line better be at 24". Expand Good Gawd! We'll, we can't fault you for your enthusiasm, that is for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 All JV models way way offshore. You'd like to see at least one come around, red flags there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:09 PM, Brian5671 said: What a bust here! An inch of snow after nothing was forecast. Road crews caught off guard-lots of accidents Expand At least it looks like winter there, just cold brown frozen ground here. Good day to pick up dog poop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:16 PM, ORH_wxman said: Northern stream is def a bit better on EPS but when it's not enough to produce the big dog, you are still going to get overwhelming majority of members out to sea....this is what I'm talking about with the non-linear response. It's not going to just slowly come NW by 25-50 miles each run....you'll likely see a whole bunch of members go nuclear if we start seeing the Euro suit phasing the streams better. Much like we're seeing on the GFS suite. 12z suite overall today was definitely a step forward, but we need another one at 00z. I think that's the 30 seconds cliff's notes version. Expand A little Texas 2 step forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:46 PM, Torch Tiger said: All JV models way way offshore. You'd like to see at least one come around, red flags there Expand Euro, GFS, and CMC, including their ensembles all have the system near or east of the mid-Atlantic region, so it won't take too much more positive change to bring them further north. The UK still wants to go to Bermuda, so that one will need a massive change in its modeling to become favorable for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:00 PM, jbenedet said: This reminds me of blizzard of 96 but more south/east - due to more confluence over the northeast. I referenced this pattern about a 12 days ago, and it's here...ready to deliver... I think you're in a good spot at this lead time based on latest guidance. So is the inside 95 crew of new england. North of there, yea, odds fall off fast but I'd be watching closely up to the pike. Expand Here's 96 https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-500MillibarMaps.html All panels 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 So the options are OTS or a HECS? No scrapers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:56 PM, cleetussnow said: Here's 96 Expand Conus flow of yore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:57 PM, Kitz Craver said: Conus flow of yore Expand word. I edited to add the link to the 500mb all the way through in case people want to compare per Pope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:54 PM, 78Blizzard said: Euro, GFS, and CMC, including their ensembles all have the system near or east of the mid-Atlantic region, so it won't take too much more positive change to bring them further north. The UK still wants to go to Bermuda, so that one will need a massive change in its modeling to become favorable for us. Expand Right lol. I'm saying there is zero op OMS, and only a handful ens members doing much. Not a great sign, which leads me to think this is a scraper at best. hough the s/ws will be better sampled as we move on. And devils advocate, it won't take much to make this go the other direction (farther offshore and weaker) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Ended up with an inch today so two for the season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 0.5" in north haven, flurries now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 8:01 PM, Torch Tiger said: Right lol. I'm saying there is zero op OMS, and only a handful ens members doing much. Not a great sign, which leads me to think this is a scraper at best. hough the s/ws will be better sampled as we move on. Expand It is encouraging to see the CMC and the ensembles in the middle ground with a few miles shift North it's a moderate event for Southern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 8:04 PM, EastonSN+ said: It is encouraging to see the CMC and the ensembles in the middle ground with a few miles shift North it's a moderate event for Southern New England. Expand A little exaggeration ...Maybe a light event at best down there, ggem was a nothing burger here. Even with your little north push. I wouldn't rule out that middle ground scenario at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:57 PM, Kitz Craver said: Conus flow of yore Expand PNA ridge too flat, not gonna work! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 7:56 PM, 8611Blizz said: So the options are OTS or a HECS? No scrapers? Expand I think a scraper is a low prob. Like Will said, it's all or nothing really. Non-linear response. Either it happens or it doesn't. A scraper is not, non-zero....but I don't see that as an option that has a good chance of happening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I really held out hope today would give us a little surprise on the north fringe. Managed 0.6-0.7"...pretty much ties for my biggest event of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 8:06 PM, Torch Tiger said: A little exaggeration ...Maybe a light event at best down there, ggem was a nothing burger here. Even with your little north push. I wouldn't rule out that middle ground scenario at all. Expand There doesn’t seem to be a middle ground down here.. it’s either phase and a monster or not and ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I don’t agree with that. A low- medium impact event is certainly possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 8:09 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: There doesn’t seem to be a middle ground down here.. it’s either phase and a monster or not and ots Expand This was the CMC run which is not too far from us. Perhaps it's not plausible with the players on the field? Yes it's powerful, just not pulled up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On 1/6/2025 at 8:09 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: There doesn’t seem to be a middle ground down here.. it’s either phase and a monster or not and ots Expand I dunno, will defer but I've seen these trend into middling events either due to slower phasing and other reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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