H2Otown_WX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: Confidence is not inspiring with the 12z suite with the GFS/GEFS all alone. Only if the GFS can be treated as the Euro of yesteryear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 31 minutes ago, dryslot said: Dr No with a resounding NO. We really only have about 24 hours to see the corrections we need. Then it’s probably slip sliding away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I doubt the gfs scores a coup however, the other models suck just as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The mean looks much improved to me but I can’t see the members yet. 12z yesterday 00z last night 12z today 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I was just going by the mean, I have not seen individual members. Don’t yell at me yell at the model. Did I yell? I was just defending my reasoning for posting it improved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: We really only have about 24 hours to see the corrections we need. Then it’s probably slip sliding away. I would argue 48 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, weathafella said: I would argue 48 hours. Me too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 @CoastalWx in the images above you want to see a further north and more buckled field, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: The mean looks much improved to me but I can’t see the members yet. 12z yesterday 00z last night 12z today It improved, but I was hoping for something a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: I was going by individual members distribution vs prior 2 runs. northern stream is trying more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, CoastalWx said: It improved, but I was hoping for something a bit better. Yeah it still needs work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: @CoastalWx in the images above you want to see a further north and more buckled field, right? It’s always hard on ensemble mean, but ideally you want to see it a bit more buckled and definitely not positively tilted like the earlier time stamps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 this is really on a knife's edge. the GEPS shifting that much gives the GFS camp some credence 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Ok I know we tend to trust the European by default and perhaps even by the verification date, but the GFS has gotten much better I think and the Canadian show some support. Also isn’t the GFS better with the northern stream so shouldn’t we be leaning towards it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 here are the three major ensembles. none of them are really THAT different, they just have different degrees of phasing... and I couldn't tell you which is correct. just going to have to get things sorted over the next few days 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 In this 4-5 day range, I feel like if the ensembles were trending the wrong way while the Ops were showing hits it would be more concerning....but at least for now it is the other way around. Both the Euro and GFS have been completely wrong before at this time frame, so at this point no real answers...Hope for a blizzard but reality says Dr. No will take the prize.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Spanks45 said: In this 4-5 day range, I feel like if the ensembles were trending the wrong way while the Ops were showing hits it would be more concerning....but at least for now it is the other way around. Both the Euro and GFS have been completely wrong before at this time frame, so at this point no real answers...Hope for a blizzard but reality says Dr. No will take the prize.... Right, we are just in wait and see mode, The EURO and GFS have both been completely wrong at this stage in the game many times before, even closer in.. This is a high stakes forecast for obvious reasons.. I think it's important to get the right information out as the usual hypesters are out pimping the GFS already to the masses. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Right, we are just in wait and see mode, The EURO and GFS have both been completely wrong at this stage in the game many times before, even closer in.. This is a high stakes forecast for obvious reasons.. I think it's important to get the right information out as the usual hypesters are out pimping the GFS already to the masses. I mean we still have PTSD stemming from 2015, was it the Euro OP that didn't agree with its own ensembles which was a red flag? I also feel like there have been quite a few times, somewhat recently where the OPs were having a tough time, yet the ensembles led the way.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Thoughts on how the confluence in the NE is shunting that shortwave south on the GFS while the Euro is weaker and allows it to move further east? Maybe we need the stronger confluence early on in eastern Canada.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I know I ridicule CMC but the GEPS are pretty robust! I was surprised to see that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 47 minutes ago, metagraphica said: I'll take a #4 please. As much as I want warm weather already, if we're going to do this let's do it BIGLY!! In other news, it's snowing. Ground is turning white. I'll take both panel number 4 and 16 please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Spin out on this webcam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: I know I ridicule CMC but the GEPS are pretty robust! I was surprised to see that. They’ve come hundy’s and hundy’s of miles NW since Saturday morning. It’s Euro vs world 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, ineedsnow said: Spin out on this webcam? Yep, welcome to Shitbury 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: northern stream is trying more We love a good tug job around these parts. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 EPS members aren't exactly well dispersed. They're all way offshore which is a little concerning. 2 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 25 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Right, we are just in wait and see mode, The EURO and GFS have both been completely wrong at this stage in the game many times before, even closer in.. This is a high stakes forecast for obvious reasons.. I think it's important to get the right information out as the usual hypesters are out pimping the GFS already to the masses. For sure…we’re not gonna know which one is more correct right now. There are valid reasons for both sides of the coin currently. We need to just wait and see how this goes…doesn’t seem possible, but this is still 5 days out. Be nice if the 18z GFS can put two in a row together(it did it Saturday) …that would be encouraging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ve pulled down my undies hundred of times since Saturday morning. It’s my weenie vs world 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 So I thought this video was interesting. Bernie does mention that the Euro has always had trouble burying the energy in the southwest incorrectly. But, he stopped short of saying that the GFS was the correct model. This at least gives hope for the storm this weekend. It's definitely an interesting video to watch 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS members aren't exactly well dispersed. They're all way offshore which is a little concerning. It actually moved more SE from 00z which stinks.. still holding hope though.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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