CoastalWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Maybe NJ points N deformed as low develops and matures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, weathafella said: I melted hard after the 0z Euro. You're welcome. Surprisingly I did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think we lose this one...the N stream shitting the bed is BS. It was soo stable for a few days too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 78blizzard is waiting for Uncle and Canadian. Canadian is trying....a bit better than 00z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Surprisingly I did not. No you didn't. In fact your words of encouragement allowed me to sleep with sugar plums dancing in my head. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Yeah because I’m psyched to be burning through my wood and oil to stay warm on the cold, brown, barren tundra. @kdxkenis certainly psyched to be selling you some more wood! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 This just proves that this set up is heavily governed by sensitivity to the N stream, which should perform given the trend this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: This would be further NW then depicted for deformation bands IDK if that would be the case this time around, not with a storm that intense. Would probably start farther northwest but collapse quickly towards the northwest side of the center. Scott did just make a good point this would be more of a CCB than a deform and that also may favor something a bit closer to the northwest center of the H7 low, If I'm thinking correctly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Canadian is trying....a bit better than 00z. Not close enough hopefully we can trend with plenty of time left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: if this is the set up the trend could be north, yes? is this a miller a? or a b with a late insert to tug it up? @Typhoon Tip says Miller D, maybe like a hybrid, A's aren't really phasers but I say A. A storm emerges from the Gulf with plenty of power is my argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: H7 is in a great spot for deep erly flow. More of a CCB vs deformation. I like how the block causes it to shoot straight east from the Delmarva 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, weathafella said: No you didn't. In fact your words of encouragement allowed me to sleep with sugar plums dancing in my head. The s stream is pretty much figured out...that ameliorated most of my doubt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I would assume the GEFS to be better, But if you looked at what was posted earlier this morning with the ensembles, There's been a steady trend back north and west with a lot of members. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This just proves that this set up is heavily governed by sensitivity to the N stream, which should perform given the trend this season. It's not just about the existence of it...timing of all these things is so precarious. What a complicated flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, dryslot said: I would assume the GEFS to be better, But if you looked at what was posted earlier this morning with the ensembles, There's been a steady trend back north and west with a lot of members. Yep...even the EPS last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, CoastalWx said: It's not just about the existence of it...timing of all these things is so precarious. What a complicated flow. Right..."sensitvity".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 CMC holds serve, Sampras style 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Dr. No is waiting in the wings to administer the jab. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: CT and RI approved. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 It’s all about the N branch lobe that dives down on the GFS. How often does GFS win model battles with major features? Not often. CMC evolution makes more reasonable sense, it’s strong enough with southern energy to create some coastal precipitation. I hope the GFS is right, but until the euro has anything like it I’d toss personally. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: I like how the block causes it to shoot straight east from the Delmarva That will keep the dryslot well south if it happened like that. It's a good evolution for higher end totals since you stay right in the heart of all the inflow and CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: IDK if that would be the case this time around, not with a storm that intense. Would probably start farther northwest but collapse quickly towards the northwest side of the center. Scott did just make a good point this would be more of a CCB than a deform and that also may favor something a bit closer to the northwest center of the H7 low, If I'm thinking correctly. The finer details will still need to be worked out if we even have a similar scenario going forward, The main thing now i think is we need to see more consistency from the OP models going forward to assume this is not another head fake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 On a side note, not that anyone cares...but it is snowing nicely down here atm. Good sign for this weekend?!?! 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Surprisingly I did not. you've been expressing confidence this would come back, and your rationale has to do with the NS. I'm intrigued when mets have gut feelings about situations that to me almost look like lost causes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: I like how the block causes it to shoot straight east from the Delmarva Yea latitude gain is capped. The bigger concern is a OTS/weak impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, dryslot said: The finer details will still need to be worked out if we even have a similar scenario going forward, The main thing now i think is we need to see more consistency from the OP models going forward to assume this is not another head fake. Agree, though I still look at ops as another ensemble member at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Some good cold coming in after the storm, deep winter incoming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said: 06z Skynet and NAM are going the wrong way. Edit...12z NAM. NAM, at this timeframe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I can only imagine what the accumulation map shows for the GFS model. Damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: I would assume the GEFS to be better, But if you looked at what was posted earlier this morning with the ensembles, There's been a steady trend back north and west with a lot of members. well in the last half hour a lot of members trended north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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