8611Blizz Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, George001 said: I’d rather have a repeat of March 2017 than this. Hopefully the Euro is more north. I would too but I would take a more widespread 12/20/24. Will work for snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: CMC with the fattest cave i’ve seen in a while Blizzard78 will be pumped…it’s definitely coming now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 lol, CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Well, after that run, I think Mother Nature has managed to stuff everynone of my orifices a minimum of three times over the past several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Zero concern seeing that depiction on 00z, particularly considering that 12z spurred a forum wide panic that we were losing this completely. Just loop the 12z yesterday, 00z last night, 12z this afternoon, and 00z tonight. Plenty of volatility. Nothing settled, nothing lost. @40/70 Benchmark I agree with your earlier assessment that these models are merely stepping their way toward a nuke of a low. The moving pieces cloud just how big the potential really is. If we can’t close here… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, after that run, I think Mother Nature has managed to stuff everynone of my orifices a minimum of three times over the past several years. I can't imagine the meltdowns if this ends up giving the Mid-Atlantic a monster storm and skunks everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Would be nuts to converge on the correct solution this far out. We're seeing it with the current storm though. Yeah some models were a bit further north but they were very accurate several days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: CMC with the fattest cave i’ve seen in a while @78Blizzard is in utter disbelief!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 The difference between a big hit or ots is razor thin. A tick here and there upstream has big downstream ramifications. I still think the right goalpost is more likely but I want to be wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, SnoSki14 said: We're seeing it with the current storm though. Yeah some models were a bit further north but they were very accurate several days out. When the NAO is strongly negative its not uncommon to see a solution from 4-5 days out more or less not change much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think that will happen, but I'm uncomfortable. At least we have consensus on the phase. I agree with you here. We need that phase and loop (Capture) slightly later and go under us offshore. The Mid-Atlantic will see snow but how much is still up in the air at this early time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Would be nuts to converge on the correct solution this far out. That was my point this morning…this is gonna go through all the morphing. There are things(lil vorts) starting to show up that weren’t there earlier too…so this has a ways to go before we see any consensus. But it’s still not in a bad spot for us at day 6+. Should be fun going forward over the next few days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: When the NAO is strongly negative its not uncommon to see a solution from 4-5 days out more or less not change much We have also had plenty inexorably march northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: That was my point this morning…this is gonna go through all the morphing. There are things(lil vorts) starting to show up that weren’t there earlier too…so this has a ways to go before we see any consensus. But it’s still not in a bad spot for us at day 6+. Should be fun going forward over the next few days at least. If it still looks like this through 12z Wednesday, then I think we're fu(ked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 What a mess. This could be slipping away, maybe. Was hoping for something more consolidated but alas. Nothing is resolved to a definitive outcome. Anyone stating anything less or more is kidding themselves and only making themselves a target as a Debby-downer or wishing. EDIT!!! I MADE IT TO 3K. First round on me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: @78Blizzard is in utter disbelief!! Quite the contrary. If you look at the CMC 12z run there was nothing there. At least they have an actual storm there now. So my confidence has actually improved, which was my original point earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, WinterWolf said: That was my point this morning…this is gonna go through all the morphing. There are things(lil vorts) starting to show up that weren’t there earlier too…so this has a ways to go before we see any consensus. But it’s still not in a bad spot for us at day 6+. Should be fun going forward over the next few days at least. Going back 5 days from current system and GFS was remarkably accurate. Every storm is different however but I do think once models get a grasp on the system that it won't change much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If it still looks like this through 12z Tuesday, then I think we're fu(ked. Yea. 6 cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If it still looks like this through 12z Tuesday, then I think we're fu(ked. Tuesday is the definitive day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Logically I still feel that way, but its just so unsettling seeing the convergence on that precise FU violation. Given what we’ve been through the last several years, there’s a part of me that feels the same. But it’s the kind of thing where imo if we can’t produce at least something significant in this setup, we just don’t have it (again) this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We have also had plenty inexorably march northward. Jan 96…that wasn’t progged to March north at all, till the last 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Jan 96…that wasn’t progged to March north at all, till the last 2 days. Very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Jan 96…that wasn’t progged to March north at all, till the last 2 days. Although it is 29 years ago... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Although it is 29 years ago... Jan 2016 too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 UK hangs back the baja low and whiffs with a weak wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Jan 2016 too Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Jan 96…that wasn’t progged to March north at all, till the last 2 days. The JMA had it a few days before..I think it was the only one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, tomcatct said: The JMA had it a few days before..I think it was the only one That was 16 I think? No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 6 Author Share Posted January 6 I can't imagine the meltdowns if this ends up giving the Mid-Atlantic a monster storm and skunks everyone elseI got a relative just outside DC, fun part would be convincing my wife to have us head down there XDSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I can always hope to sneak an inch or two of sand in. Would be the biggest storm of the year for many 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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