TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, dryslot said: No bueno Good time for the can kicking meme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, dryslot said: No bueno Middling evolution leading to a middling op result. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, Heisy said: Take a look at difference of the shortwaves at top of ridge from current 12z euro and 00z euro. Newer runs weakened it. I really think this is what is partly hurting us. That shortwave isn’t as strong so isn’t diving as far S. . Yeah the southern stream is actually ejecting decently this run but that northern shortwave never really digs until much later which is bad. We still almost get an event regardless but we need that northern shortwave to come in a bit deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 10 minutes ago, Heisy said: Take a look at difference of the shortwaves at top of ridge from current 12z euro and 00z euro. Newer runs weakened it. I really think this is what is partly hurting us. That shortwave isn’t as strong so isn’t diving as far S. . if you try to trace it back, the energy responsible for that s/w is over the pacific ocean off the coast of Japan holding out some weenie hope that it “comes back” once its closer to the west coast ha 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the southern stream is actually ejecting decently this run but that northern shortwave never really digs until much later which is bad. We still almost get an event regardless but we need that northern shortwave to come in a bit deeper. Deeper to sharpen the trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 The storm to the south of us earlier in the week is making a mess in its wake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Rather than the nuclear detonation that you got from 00z because of the northern and southern energy fusion You get a much more tame event that’s all dependent on the NS Would love to see how the EPS and its members handle this. It still seems very sensitive to me and I think @Heisy makes a good point about the amplitude of the NS energy being an important component to if we get anything close to a phase. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, ma blizzard said: if you try to trace it back, the energy responsible for that s/w is over the pacific ocean off the coast of Japan holding out some weenie hope that it “comes back” once its closer to the west coast ha Yeah I’m actually not quite as discouraged as I normally would be due to the northern stream being the biggest culprit here. We might be screwed anyway, but I don’t think it’s the southern stream trending slower. It actually ejected slightly quicker than the 00z run but the northern stream isn’t digging much at all this run. That is the culprit. If that trend continues then we’re def screwed but since it’s the very fast northern stream with that shortwave still almost on the other side of the pacific, I have some hope that it comes back a bit stronger. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The storm to the south of us earlier in the week is making a mess in its wake To an extent, that is true. It's kind of mucking up the downstream stuff later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, ma blizzard said: if you try to trace it back, the energy responsible for that s/w is over the pacific ocean off the coast of Japan holding out some weenie hope that it “comes back” once its closer to the west coast ha And that is very possible…we’ve seen it happen many times before. Doesn’t mean it will this time of course, but that’s plausible at this juncture. Gotta just wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 It hangs a lot of moisture back over the region even though it misses, I take that as this can be better on future runs. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: It hangs a lot of moisture back over the region even though it misses, I take that as this can be better on future runs. A couple ways to get it done(if not the huge event) get snow into the region. Not a bad place to be at this point. A couple avenues to get something, isn’t all bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I’m actually not quite as discouraged as I normally would be due to the northern stream being the biggest culprit here. We might be screwed anyway, but I don’t think it’s the southern stream trending slower. It actually ejected slightly quicker than the 00z run but the northern stream isn’t digging much at all this run. That is the culprit. If that trend continues then we’re def screwed but since it’s the very fast northern stream with that shortwave still almost on the other side of the pacific, I have some hope that it comes back a bit stronger. You could kind of see that disconnect as early as 90h imo 00z 12z But it’s really evident 18 hours later 00z 12z My concern is that this disconnect shows up sooner rather than later so we need more immediate changes, but I agree with you that setting aside the surface depiction and just looking at 500, there’s not as much reason to be discouraged as you’d think. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 clear as day on the means 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: clear as day on the means Gross, going to be hard to correct that at a short lead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I'm usually somewhere between naive and optimistic, but I have to say I didn't understand all the excitement about this yesterday and last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 At least it will continue to be active 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gross, going to be hard to correct that at a short lead Yup, it’s done. Next. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 15 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I'm usually somewhere between naive and optimistic, but I have to say I didn't understand all the excitement about this yesterday and last night. I think we have reason to be guardedly optimistic. We had 3 shots a week ago with the current system giving DC 6-10 #1. We knew #1 was a miss for close to a week. #2 and #3 are in a better environment (less damage from NAO vs help potentially). We’re 0 for 1 but we have more middling pitchers to face for #2 and #3. Sooner or later we will score something. We’re not going 30 days with no water from the heavens. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yup, it’s done. Next. Do we know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Yup, it’s done. Next. I know your joking... But nice way to appease him..lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Do we know? I think he's being sarcastic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the southern stream is actually ejecting decently this run but that northern shortwave never really digs until much later which is bad. We still almost get an event regardless but we need that northern shortwave to come in a bit deeper. That is more correctable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 33 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: clear as day on the means Yea, wow. Unreal how nothing will go right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Any juicy EPS members left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I'm confused. Just because the 12z models that came out are less than favorable, does that mean the storm is done? I mean at this point there's not even a sampling of what's on shore yet, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Any juicy EPS members left? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I'm confused. Just because the 12z models that came out are less than favorable, does that mean the storm is done? I mean at this point there's not even a sampling of what's on shore yet, correct? This is not even close to being done. Given the factors evolved, particularly with the idea of phasing northern/southern streams we aren't going to have a solid idea until probably Tuesday. My thinking is that beginning with Tuesday 12z run we are going to want to see continuity. At this point, we're going to continue seeing run-to-run differences with the handling of each stream and that is perfectly normal at this stage. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Any juicy EPS members left? A few moderate hits nothing like 00z which had 25% snowstorms .. I saw about 7 deep low pressures near benchmark at 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Well, by this point...I think we are all out of the withdrawl stage and onto recovery. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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