WxWatcher007 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 14 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Do you have the prior frames or does it not form until hr 174? It forms long before this but here are the early surface panels that matter to us. It’s a crushah 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, ice1972 said: a week away lol.....so many ways this can be tanked..... It could be tanked, or it might just be less. At half those totals I would be pretty happy. If people are taking these maps verbatim then they need to seek professional help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: It could be tanked, or it might just be less. At half those totals I would be pretty happy. If people are taking these maps verbatim then they need to seek professional help. Very true statement! Violently agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: It could be tanked, or it might just be less. At half those totals I would be pretty happy. If people are taking these maps verbatim then they need to seek professional help. Obviously no guarantees at all, but if you look at the H5 depiction on that Euro, and the SLP track and intensity, and it isn’t exactly flying by either(taking it’s time), there is some upper end potential there…putting clown maps aside. Ensembles are also indicating a strong signal as well. So some positive developments at 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Obviously no guarantees at all, but if you look at the H5 depiction on that Euro, and the SLP track and intensity, and it isn’t exactly flying by either(taking it’s time), there is some upper end potential there…putting clown maps aside. Ensembles are also indicating a strong signal as well. So some positive developments at 0z. Ensembles are particularly encouraging 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, but starting around midday today my instinct is telling me it's a go...you are right, though. I'm just feeling this one now that I feel more confident that SW energy is coming to play. dude you are obviously better at this than I but while I would take this one no doubt - I would need follow up.....the season has to follow through if it means business and the last few seasons are so wimpy.....and if next week is all we get then I declare - wimpy wimpy wimpy......gonna need stamina here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Eps. Total thru 186hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Obviously no guarantees at all, but if you look at the H5 depiction on that Euro, and the SLP track and intensity, and it isn’t exactly flying by either(taking it’s time), there is some upper end potential there…putting clown maps aside. Ensembles are also indicating a strong signal as well. Potential is good for sure, but we are still a fair amount of time away from this and those crazy totals (particularly for those of us on the coast) can evaporate pretty quickly depending on track and where the front sets up. 48 hours from now if these totals are still shown I'll be much more intrigued... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 One at a time Ice…we gotta reel this in first. Let’s not get ahead of, or over our skis. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said: Potential is good for sure, but we are still a fair amount of time away from this and those crazy totals (particularly for those of us on the coast) can evaporate pretty quickly depending on track and where the front sets up. 48 hours from now if these totals are still shown I'll be much more intrigued... I wasn’t looking or talking totals, I was just looking at the set up in general on that run. But yes, to be sure, long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It forms long before this but here are the early surface panels that matter to us. It’s a crushah Looks nearly identical to the 18z GFS until it jumps SE in the later panels. I'm wondering why it's so progressive when we have the blocking in place? I guess because the block is relaxing a bit in that timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: One at a time Ice…we gotta reel this in first. Let’s not get ahead of, or over our skis. I get it.....we lost December so I'm bummed about that but if we get next week I can give it probably 2 or 3 weeks to build off of it....after that its gone.....can't recover.....love you man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 It didn’t look all that progressive to me. It starts snowing around 160, and it’s still snowing at 180..that doesn’t look all that quick compared to some of late. It’s probably not worth much at this lead, but just what I noticed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 When I moved to New England 20 years ago I had high hopes......I had thought it was the same as Lake Tahoe.....damn I have learned a lot......retirement at Tahoe Keys all set lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, WinterWolf said: It didn’t look all that progressive to me. It starts snowing around 160, and it’s still snowing at 180..that doesn’t look all that quick compared to some of late. It’s probably not worth much at this lead, but just what I noticed. long lead time though no? Can't rely on that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/01/increasing-likelihood-of-intense-winter.html 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 And the latest GFS says here's our storm again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: And the latest GFS says here's our storm again... This could easily end up too wound up. From too much confluence and a suppressed track to not enough confluence and a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, ice1972 said: When I moved to New England 20 years ago I had high hopes......I had thought it was the same as Lake Tahoe.....damn I have learned a lot......retirement at Tahoe Keys all set lol You moved to the CTRV.. the least snowy place in New England 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Wow I did not expect to wake up to see that euro/eps run lol; and the 6z GFS! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This could easily end up too wound up. From too much confluence and a suppressed track to not enough confluence and a cutter. cutter? the 06z GFS is a cutter to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This could easily end up too wound up. From too much confluence and a suppressed track to not enough confluence and a cutter. Oh no doubt, or a miss south/less amped. We have many more days to go before I put any real stock in it. I do however feel like we're due to get our share this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: cutter? the 06z GFS is a cutter to you? That's not what he meant. He was referencing future runs possibilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, UnitedWx said: That's not what he meant. He was referencing future runs possibilities I guess. this kind of setup with confluence leading in along with a 50/50 offshore argue against a true cutter. maybe a runner / transfer, but even that will still bring potentially heavy snow at some point in the evolution. especially with a bomb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6z GEFS is going full out this run I think, LFG boys! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I guess. this kind of setup with confluence leading in along with a 50/50 offshore argue against a true cutter. maybe a runner / transfer, but even that will still bring potentially heavy snow at some point in the evolution. especially with a bomb I hear you and agree, although I think my concern is actually having a storm as wound up as depicted. Nice to see other support this morning for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You moved to the CTRV.. the least snowy place in New England I would take the CTRV over GON any day of the week That is the worst. I'm not feeling good about my Saturday event after the 06Z coming back to the game. Still lots of time of course. If I cancel it, the big question will be whether I stay in Westborough or come to Pit2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 p/c not exactly squawking. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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