H2Otown_WX Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: I heard Millennium storm? I would say the 18z run does look similar to that storm but that changed BOS to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No Dec ‘92…that storm was stalled for like 30+ hours, lol. Same kind of track though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said: Not that it matters but don't you think the 700 mb track on the 18z is much less favorable than 12z? Looks like there would be dryslot issues for CT anyway. Yep 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: i think there was a storm in the early 1960s that wound up a 960 low and there was thundersnow with 70 mph wind gust - Jerry or Will might know Tip, any thoughts on when you thread this up? It would clear a bunch of traffic from this thread. My suggestion is that we allow Tip the honors....I can't wait read the 5,000 word treatise! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, H2Otown_WX said: I would say the 18z run does look similar to that storm but that changed BOS to rain It get it even 40 miles south and it wound bury to CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, Go Kart Mozart said: Tip, any thoughts on when you thread this up? It would clear a bunch of traffic from this thread. My suggestion is that we allow Tip the honors....I can't wait read the 5,000 word treatise! Don’t thread it now. Will doom it. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 18 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: What do we call a 2 stream phaser? I figured Miller A cuz it launches from the Gulf. Phaser sounds cool. i get it ... i didn't mean to be declarative even tough i typed it like an dink. early jan 1978; now that was a miller A. capturing from an n-stream just seems to pollute the miller A model to me. interesting. i like miller D frankly for phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yep That’s a monster front end though and H7 basically tracks along the Pike as the center quickly shoots east. Not worth worrying about details though. Still need to have the actual storm first. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I’d roll the dice with that honestly. Might be issues for a bit but still a lot of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: No Dec ‘92…that storm was stalled for like 30+ hours, lol. negligible comparison... analog loading is roughly 4% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, cleetussnow said: I heard Millennium storm? Nah that one tracked due north over eastern MA even just west of BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 This would crawl with the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, dendrite said: That’s a monster front end though and H7 basically tracks along the Pike as the center quickly shoots east. Not worth worrying about details though. Still need to have the actual storm first. I think its fun to look at those type of details even far out...if anything so you at least make sure you're covering all the bases as you get closer to forecast time. I'll be posting some bufkit profiles soon we all can geek over!!! 18z bufkit should be out in 5.5 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It get it even 40 miles south and it wound bury to CT Trying to figure out what you’re saying here Scott ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Just now, WinterWolf said: Trying to figure out what you’re saying here Scott ? 40 miles south of that 18z depiction and you will be a very happy wolf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 how about this beaut is just unique and has never happened before - so there's no way to know what horrors it may have in store .. muah hahahahahaha 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: how about this beaut is just unique and has never happened before - so there's no way to know what horrors it may have in store .. muah hahahahahaha this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air just a matter of how it all comes together 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Litchfield county in Connecticut absolutely raked in that depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: 40 miles south of that 18z depiction and you will be a very happy wolf Thanks. I’d be pretty happy if that solution played as is at 18z too I think. At least something to track is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’d roll the dice with that honestly. Might be issues for a bit but still a lot of snow. Yeah I don’t expect either of us to be the bullseye in this type of setup, that will likely be NW of us. I would rather this than another southern slider though, decent snows on the front end before going over to mix and or rain. If I get 6 inches and 20 miles NW gets 2 feet, so be it. The ski areas need the snow anyways. Hopefully we can get lucky and get a low track 25-50 or so miles SE of where the GFS has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Monster GEFS signal wow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 huge step from the gefs ... not ideal yet, but considering the last three cycles in consecutive order, this gets interesting 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 Paging [mention=919]HIPPYVALLEY[/mention] and [mention=1782]ineedsnow[/mention] 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this has pretty much every box checked off synoptically: phasing trough over the OH Valley, decaying west based -NAO, huge, slow moving 50/50, and antecedent cold air just a matter of how it all comes together just posted the member position at 168 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 40 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: jesus, we're almost back to that crazy run from 4 days ago holy smokes! duh, of course we are, I locked it in backed then. What is the point of locking in a 40"+ snowfall if it then doesn't happen? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Been busy all day and didn't read back but I'm sure we all had a reasonable reaction to the last two runs of the GFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: i get it ... i didn't mean to be declarative even tough i typed it like an dink. early jan 1978; now that was a miller A. capturing from an n-stream just seems to pollute the miller A model to me. interesting. i like miller D frankly for phasing Nah yer good. Didn’t know that was a thing. Looking for phaser storm analogous to this one. with the block and phase scenario, this has a lot of interesting pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Been busy all day and didn't read back but I'm sure we all had a reasonable reaction to the last two runs of the GFS? Yep just getting cleaned up now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 As the experts like to say, sometimes the real big ones are depicted several days in advance on multiple models before they strike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I’d say thread this after tomorrow’s 12z runs if we stay the course tween now and then. Tip gets the honors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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