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Joker January


Prismshine Productions
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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

24F in Dover. Not one piece of operational guidance was close. Already ~ +5 vs the operational guidance.

Yea I know MOS guidance better in this regard, but that MOS guidance aint producing our clown maps.

Lock up the clown map people.  LOCK THEM UP, LOCK THEM UP….

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The MVL ASOS in the valley here is +0.4F on the month of January.  That is absolutely wild.  It has felt cold.

Average temperature of 16.2F isn't noteworthy though.  I guess what made this month feel colder was the consistent fluffy snowfall, wind?

Or maybe it was the fact that the past two seasons had average temps of 23.8F (+8.1) or January 2023 with 26.4F (+10.7).

This January being colder by 8-11 degrees from the previous two January's definitely skews perception.  The past two January's were top tier warmth, average feels cold.

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2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The MVL ASOS in the valley here is +0.4F on the month of January.  That is absolutely wild.  It has felt cold.

Average temperature of 16.2F isn't noteworthy though.  I guess what made this month feel colder was the consistent fluffy snowfall, wind?

Or maybe it was the fact that the past two seasons had average temps of 23.8F (+8.1) or January 2023 with 26.4F (+10.7).

This January being colder by 8-11 degrees from the previous two January's definitely skews perception.  The past two January's were top tier warmth, average feels cold.

Same down here, people have been saying its been a cold year but its basically an average year, the last few years messed up their outlooks.

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15 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Same down here, people have been saying its been a cold year but its basically an average year, the last few years messed up their outlooks.

Exactly.  This happens quite easily.  My business partner out in SoCal was wearing a sweatshirt in 70 degree weather the other day on a call.  I was like "It was 7 this morning with a 22mph wind".  He's lived out here and knows what that's like but once you get some time under your belt in a different weather regime, you adapt to whatever that is.  As @powderfreak has been saying, so many people (understandably so) view everything through their individual life experience and think it's either a winter-of-yore in Stowe VT or another non-winter in Taunton MA.  Regionally, we seem to still be mired in a sub-par regime for snow lovers.  As many have mentioned, at least the mountains have been able to produce and the ski areas blow snow.  Winter is always only a couple/few hours away for most of us.  

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19 minutes ago, Layman said:

Exactly.  This happens quite easily.  My business partner out in SoCal was wearing a sweatshirt in 70 degree weather the other day on a call.  I was like "It was 7 this morning with a 22mph wind".  He's lived out here and knows what that's like but once you get some time under your belt in a different weather regime, you adapt to whatever that is.  As @powderfreak has been saying, so many people (understandably so) view everything through their individual life experience and think it's either a winter-of-yore in Stowe VT or another non-winter in Taunton MA.  Regionally, we seem to still be mired in a sub-par regime for snow lovers.  As many have mentioned, at least the mountains have been able to produce and the ski areas blow snow.  Winter is always only a couple/few hours away for most of us.  

Light snow just started back up here.  It’s been a westerly flow month.  Hard to argue with anyone that the synoptic areas have been dry. We get pennies and nickels.

IMG_2467.jpeg.d99943f8a4371cc6820409edb21deeaf.jpeg

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We’ve been well below normal at 850mb this month (about -4C which converts to around -7F departure) but the sfc anomalies are very meh. Prob multiple reasons for that. Wind has kept the rad pits up. Lack of deep snow cover across a lot of the northeast and Midwest has allowed sfc to modify a bit more than maybe otherwise when these airmasses advect in. Haven’t had a lot of cloudy days with precip either on CAD type flow (northerly) which would help offset the meh low temps with very cold highs…but hasn’t worked out that way. You’re not going to convert the 850 anomaly to the sfc at a 1 to 1 ratio but we’d prob typically see more like a -2 to -4 month on those. 
 

 

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’ve been well below normal at 850mb this month (about -4C which converts to around -7F departure) but the sfc anomalies are very meh. Prob multiple reasons for that. Wind has kept the rad pits up. Lack of deep snow cover across a lot of the northeast and Midwest has allowed sfc to modify a bit more than maybe otherwise when these airmasses advect in. Haven’t had a lot of cloudy days with precip either on CAD type flow (northerly) which would help offset the meh low temps with very cold highs…but hasn’t worked out that way. You’re not going to convert the 850 anomaly to the sfc at a 1 to 1 ratio but we’d prob typically see more like a -2 to -4 month on those. 
 

 

I blame a lack of precip and clouds mostly. As you suggested, when you’re dry adiabatic almost daily you’re going to overperform on what you’d expect aloft. 

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