Joker January

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That 1917-18 week set a lot of records.  NYC had temps of 8/-6, 2/-13, 6/-7, 10/-4, 10/2, 12/0, 18/-3.   Week average: 9.4/-4.4/2.5
A century later (and a lot farther north) we bridged into the new year with 6/-16, -3/-14, -1/-31, 7/-25, 1/-18, 1/-24, 6/-27  Week average:  2.4/-22.1/-10.9

One of those days it was mid -10s here in the afternoon. Totally unheard of for here. 
 

Edit. Take that back. That was Dec 1933. 

[Typhoon Tip]

This has been a robust -EPO winter up to this point.  

Unfortunately .. there's also been a persistent idiosyncratic layout of the PNA in the means/verification; one that has been problem for better cyclone production. 

Namely, the western N/A ridge component of the total +PNA has largely biased too far west.  When we think of or visualize the positive phase of PNA, there's a ridge axis aligned more typically eastern MT or the Dakotas.  This winter, said ridge has in fact most of the time verified over the far E Pac ... only occasionally overlapping the far western continent. In a sentence, this is too far west. 

We've referred to the NAOs in the same way. "West based,"  "east based" ..etc.  It's really the same concern.  Skewing these mass field W-E-N-S of their "proper" field orientation, can seem minor if even invisible to the charts ( in this case however, +PNA biased west has been pretty damn coherent tho - ) but it distorts/interferes with expectations we associate to their different positive and negative phases.

[DavisStraight]

52 minutes ago, FlashFreeze said:

A friend sent me this from North Myrtle Beach SC 29° down there as of 11am and they got 5 inches of snow with a little crust of ice on top of it, everything is shut down, they have no way to deal with it and it’s not going anywhere for a couple of days.

My friend bought a place in that area too, he bought it to escape the cold and snow so he could golf year-round, no golf for a few days there.

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..well it's beginning to get a bit late in the game to make a comeback. Certainly at this point the rest of winter needs to have well above normal snowfall for this winter to even begin to approach normal snowfall totals.

I’m at 8.8” with a seasonal average of between 45-50. It’s going to take an exceptionally prolific storm or stretch to get close to that given the timing and current pattern. Even my updated prediction of 27-32 here when I rightfully canceled winter about ten days ago is in trouble. 

8 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That 1917-18 week set a lot of records.  NYC had temps of 8/-6, 2/-13, 6/-7, 10/-4, 10/2, 12/0, 18/-3.   Week average: 9.4/-4.4/2.5
A century later (and a lot farther north) we bridged into the new year with 6/-16, -3/-14, -1/-31, 7/-25, 1/-18, 1/-24, 6/-27  Week average:  2.4/-22.1/-10.9

Extraordinary. 

[Cyclone-68]

Not to seem inelegant but someone owes us “major ‘canage” this summer 

[DavisStraight]

It looks like we could scab and inch or two here and there before the possible storm in Feb, looks like the cold stays in some form for a while.

[ariof]

19 minutes ago, tamarack said:

That 1917-18 week set a lot of records.  NYC had temps of 8/-6, 2/-13, 6/-7, 10/-4, 10/2, 12/0, 18/-3.   Week average: 9.4/-4.4/2.5
A century later (and a lot farther north) we bridged into the new year with 6/-16, -3/-14, -1/-31, 7/-25, 1/-18, 1/-24, 6/-27  Week average:  2.4/-22.1/-10.9

i was in Mont Ste Anne that week, we didn't crack zero between our arrival and going through Concord, NH on the way home.

[WxWatcher007]

A balmy 14F at noon here in EH. Running about two degrees colder than this time yesterday.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The GFS had something around Feb 1 on its 06z run... lets see if that holds (ha!)

Looked like it had ice 

[Typhoon Tip]

12z oper. GFS and to some non-zero degree, so does the CMC, trying to activate matters during that 28th-2nd time period.  It's not a robust signal, but there is a modest +d(PNA) heading into the period, while still non-exhaustive cold lingers.  Something for winter enthusiasts to keep and eye on. 

I mentioned a couple few days ago that was our next 'suggestion' for an active period.  The signal hasn't really improved or decayed - 'tie goes to the runner'

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

12z oper. GFS and to some non-zero degree, so does the CMC, trying to activate matters during that 28th-2nd time period.  It's not a robust signal, but there is a modest +d(PNA) heading into the period, while still non-exhaustive cold lingers.  Something for winter enthusiasts to keep and eye on. 

I mentioned a couple few days ago that was our next 'suggestion' for an active period.  The signal hasn't really improved or decayed - 'tie goes to the runner'

Heard this from one of our trusted MET's here this morning. He mentioned that he sees signals of a more active/stormy pattern towards the end of next week. Time will tell I guess. 

[rimetree]

-3 for the low this morning. Looks like first below 0 since Feb of '23.

[weatherwiz]

I would watch Tuesday into Wednesday for something sneaky

[UnitedWx]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I would watch Tuesday into Wednesday for something sneaky

Little clipper energy... I mean this season, a new inch would seem like a win if there's at least something to track past it. Something's showing on the 7th also. That's been a good time period historically.

[Patrick-02540]

https://x.com/i/status/1882093031412941296

Alligator in Florida absolutely loving the snow. 

[weatherwiz]

8 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Little clipper energy... I mean this season, a new inch would seem like a win if there's at least something to track past it. Something's showing on the 7th also. That's been a good time period historically.

A few clippers upcoming, including one late Saturday/Sunday. Sometimes these can blossom into something last minute, all they need is some extra moisture injection and boom. Looks like the Tuesday into Wednesday has some inverted trough potential. 

[qg_omega]

4 hours ago, dendrite said:

Does Lake George have a trace of ice yet or are people still water tubing?

It’s trying!

 

[dendrite]

17 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

https://x.com/i/status/1882093031412941296

Alligator in Florida absolutely loving the snow. 

Love like I’d love a bullet in the head. 

[DavisStraight]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

A few clippers upcoming, including one late Saturday/Sunday. Sometimes these can blossom into something last minute, all they need is some extra moisture injection and boom. Looks like the Tuesday into Wednesday has some inverted trough potential. 

If not here will probably ignite PFs snow machine for a while.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

One of those days it was mid -10s here in the afternoon. Totally unheard of for here. 
 

Edit. Take that back. That was Dec 1933. 

Dec 30 was an extraordinary date for Central Park.  In addition to the -13, 12/30 hit -6 in both 1880 and 1933.  The 1880 day had a max of 4, tying with 2/5/1918 (that winter didn't quit) for 2nd coldest.  Coldest morning there, -15 on Feb 9, 1934, reached 8° in the afternoon.
The Farmington co-op recorded -11/-36 on 12/30/1917.  That tied Jan 9, 1968 for coldest max.  The daily mean of -23.5 is the coldest at the co-op and was 41° BN.  Their coldest min was -39 on Jan 20, 1994, but the high that day was a mere -1 and the mean of -20 is 2nd coldest.

[dendrite]

24 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

https://x.com/i/status/1882093031412941296

Alligator in Florida absolutely loving the snow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

A few clippers upcoming, including one late Saturday/Sunday. Sometimes these can blossom into something last minute, all they need is some extra moisture injection and boom. Looks like the Tuesday into Wednesday has some inverted trough potential. 

Low chance that Euro idea/bomb in GOM succeeds.   That's a polar branch of the westerlies; one aspect that we cannot seem to shed is that whenever the polar branch flexes this season, the jet becomes overwhelmingly strong, and this stretches the wave lengths which then means the embedded wave spaces are moving fast.  In principle, that thing's correction vector is thus pointed too late and speeding up. The only way to get that 'in time' would be retrograde the entire wave numbering...which I guess is plausible- just not likely.

I'm more interested in the following aspect that is, for the time being, a Lakes cutter... but the antecedent environment is so cold ( and the GFS is very similar to this) both options end up snow to mix to drizzle with implications for triple point/dammed up the hilt.  This follow-up wave is more born of a quasi-subtropical jet field.

In fact, this has been bugging me ...  I've been suspecting for a long while actually that there's a broad sweeping misconception going on out amid the ambit of Meteorology/planetary observing.  There's a lot of notion out there that subtropical jets haven't been very well observed... I've been seeing them as just being displaced N of what previous generations were used to observing.  If one looks beneath the curled up system out there over the 2nd (Euro), beneath that jet the only thing separating it from the Equator are 590 dm ridge nodal medium of general 582 heights.   That strikes me as a laitude advance HC expression...   I've read that the expanding HC was theorized as more of summer season aspect ( relative to hemisphere), but I don't think that's as true any more.  The other aspect is, if we convert the geographic expanse into mechanics, the loss of HC expansion in the winter - I hypothesis - can be physically shown to be conserved in/as the observed faster hemispheres.   SO, a trade off:  we either have expanded HC, or ... if the HC isn't allowed to be expanded, the hemisphere speeds up as a conversion.    But I'm sure most stopped reading this paragraph long ago... ha

[Patrick-02540]

7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They can go into thermal hibernation called brumation and actually survive in icy waters for quite extended periods of time.  They do need their noses above the water or ice to breathe. There are a bunch of photos online showing their little snouts protruding through ice-covered bodies of water. 

[Typhoon Tip]

43 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

They can go into thermal hibernation called brumation and actually survive in icy waters for quite extended periods of time.  They do need their noses above the water or ice to breathe. There are a bunch of photos online showing their little snouts protruding through ice-covered bodies of water. 

A remarkable adaptation of evolution ... only equaled by the advent of human deviance that happens upon the scene and decides to pack those preciously precarious protruding snout holes full of dog shit. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Good thing we're finally losing the mashed up flow compression in the extended -

[Prismshine Productions]

just checking in for the day (got called into work unexpectedly), got down to -14 last night and my honest opinion: I thought it would have felt worse than what it did...

can someone give me a TLDR on the 12z suite?

 

[DavisStraight]

25 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

They can go into thermal hibernation called brumation and actually survive in icy waters for quite extended periods of time.  They do need their noses above the water or ice to breathe. There are a bunch of photos online showing their little snouts protruding through ice-covered bodies of water. 

Snakes do the same thing so not too sure the cold will make a dent in the python problem.

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

just checking in for the day (got called into work unexpectedly), got down to -14 last night and my honest opinion: I thought it would have felt worse than what it did...

can someone give me a TLDR on the 12z suite?

 

I've been in 35 below twice, it hurts at that temp.

[CoastalWx]

22 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

just checking in for the day (got called into work unexpectedly), got down to -14 last night and my honest opinion: I thought it would have felt worse than what it did...

can someone give me a TLDR on the 12z suite?

 

Maybe something around the 1/30-2/2 but otherwise zzzzzzzz. Low chance of a weak clipper later next week

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

just checking in for the day (got called into work unexpectedly), got down to -14 last night and my honest opinion: I thought it would have felt worse than what it did...

can someone give me a TLDR on the 12z suite?

 

Stein. Lots of stein.