Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 07:23 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:23 PM LOL ... here's a vastly easier prediction: this course work will incense some fights ... let's just enjoy the deep winter vibe out there today for now. haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Monday at 07:30 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:30 PM 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Obviously ... buuuut, that's relative to the pattern foot In this case we've benefited from episodic -EPOs. We lose that ... then the other aspects may become dominant. That's not beyond the expectation given the three factors outlined above. We can certainly question whether these advanced lead telecons are true or not, but 'warm ups have been underperforming' loses out to a scaffolding change in the hemisphere. The other question, is that really true re warm ups? I don't recall any warm ups forecast in quite some time. I dunno - maybe I missed one.. There have been a couple 384 hr big heat maps posted from the obvious trolls that never happened, a few times over the last month, or at least no where near to the extent that it was shown from 16 days out. That’s why I questioned the 16 day Op lead time. Lots can be, and many times are wrong as you know with a prog like that..in either direction. But interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 07:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:43 PM 27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: There have been a couple 384 hr big heat maps posted from the obvious trolls that never happened, a few times over the last month, or at least no where near to the extent that it was shown from 16 days out. That’s why I questioned the 16 day Op lead time. Lots can be, and many times are wrong as you know with a prog like that..in either direction. But interesting nonetheless. Yeah, so my intent wasn't a forecast. Obviously forecasts approach unknowable by the time the models get out to 360 hours. That said, there are long lead indicators that show non-zero value in assessing where the risks periods are/whence they may emerge. No one thought heading into the end of January in 2017 that the next month would see an 82 F at FIT, embedded in a week of 68 to 74s. Other Febs in the last 10 years had big warm ups to varying degrees. - those kinds of breaks from normalcy ( if anything ...), it is incumbent to try and identify them ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Monday at 07:53 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:53 PM 10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, so my intent wasn't a forecast. Obviously forecasts approach unknowable by the time the models get out to 360 hours. That said, there are long lead indicators the show non-zero value in assessing where the risks periods are/whence they may emerge. No one thought heading into the end of January in 2017 that the next month would see an 82 F at FIT, embedded in a week of 68 to 74s. Other Febs in the last 10 years had big warm ups to varying degrees. - those kinds of breaks from normalcy ( if anything ...), it is incumbent to try and identify them ahead. Understandable…Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Monday at 07:59 PM Share Posted Monday at 07:59 PM 6 hours ago, dendrite said: This is quite the headline map. Gotta love a WSW along 2/3 of the gulf coast. More added now. Curious if we see any ice storm warnings in southeast Georgia and Florida Panhandle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted Monday at 08:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:01 PM MWN gusting to 89mph, windchill -57F. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Monday at 08:20 PM Share Posted Monday at 08:20 PM guess we can add this to the list "An eastward propagating Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent MJO historically favors a warm response over the central and eastern CONUS, which would be a welcome change to the frigid conditions experienced recently for much of the Lower 48." 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Monday at 09:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:47 PM I vote for shutting this thread down and fast-forwarding to a February one. What a snoozer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 09:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 09:52 PM 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I vote for shutting this thread down and fast-forwarding to a February one. What a snoozer. It may be one of the top 3 driest though no one knows . And I don’t mean from booze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted Monday at 10:01 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:01 PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted Monday at 10:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:05 PM 3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Wonder if this will go down as one of driest Jan’s on record . Little rain or snow . Anyone look? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 10:05 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:05 PM NW trend continues on Wed this week. Cape and south shore now in the game for some snow. Friday should do same 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted Monday at 10:18 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:18 PM 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Got in the truck to move it after watching the fantastic inauguration and as cold as it is the inside had some warmth after sitting in the sun . That Tippy sun angle is getting more noticeable I look forward to a revolution of common sense in your AWX posts in the future! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Monday at 10:25 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:25 PM Sun angle certainly a growing factor going forward. Even today you could see the sun-drenched trimmings of pack across SE MA 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Monday at 10:29 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:29 PM 23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: NW trend continues on Wed this week. Cape and south shore now in the game for some snow. Friday should do same Next Monday looks like best chance. Mid-week the Cape might get a C-2” type scraping. But I’d be shocked if it came NW of that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Monday at 10:35 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:35 PM Cape was never out of the game for the scraper, but I don't see too much credible evidence more NW than that. Flurries I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted Monday at 10:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:36 PM Already down to 0F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Monday at 10:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:49 PM 18z gfs is frigid end of month, wow. *edit* more Central NA focused, as others have talked about. But it's damn cold 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted Monday at 10:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 10:52 PM 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: I vote for shutting this thread down and fast-forwarding to a February one. What a snoozer. It just snowed last night, who knows if maybe another storm pops up, it's only the 20th and we have the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted Monday at 11:03 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:03 PM GFS has a bunch of clippers out there, would be nice to get one just south of us......not the Gulf of Mexico 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Monday at 11:08 PM Author Share Posted Monday at 11:08 PM 15 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: It just snowed last night, who knows if maybe another storm pops up, it's only the 20th and we have the cold. 26th-29th I am monitoring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted Monday at 11:13 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:13 PM Down to 13F so far, decent cold. How low do we go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Monday at 11:15 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:15 PM 11 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: GFS has a bunch of clippers out there, would be nice to get one just south of us......not the Gulf of Mexico scientifically yes. but eh, it's going to be a miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted Monday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:38 PM My buddy in Atlanta.... "Wait, am I too far north for snow?" 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted Monday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:38 PM 23 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Down to 13F so far, decent cold. How low do we go? I think low single digits tonight, don't think we go below zero unless you're in a good rad spot, I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted Monday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:38 PM 35 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: GFS has a bunch of clippers out there, would be nice to get one just south of us......not the Gulf of Mexico You mean the Gulf of America 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted yesterday at 12:06 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:06 AM 7F. At least the wind died down. Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted yesterday at 12:07 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:07 AM -6 with deck cracking loudly 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted yesterday at 12:08 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:08 AM Just now, Lava Rock said: 7F. At least the wind died down. Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk I thought we had a squall this afternoon but it was just the wind blowing snow off the trees. Almost froze my fingers off snow blowing, need to get a blower with heated hand grips. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted yesterday at 12:23 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:23 AM 1 hour ago, Spanks45 said: GFS has a bunch of clippers out there, would be nice to get one just south of us......not the Gulf of Mexico America 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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