Joker January

[SouthCoastMA]

end of week storm glances SENE but doesn't look impressive at the moment

[40/70 Benchmark]

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[cleetussnow]

3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Golly this model is all over the place at hr. 346

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Golly this model is all over the place at hr. 346

Already well into February by then!

[JC-CT]

There's enough there for the 24th on the GEFS to keep me interested for another few cycles

[JC-CT]

EPS still trash. Heavy chances of trash

[Sey-Mour Snow]

80s style EURO run very cold with no precip days 2-13.

[EastonSN+]

33 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

80s style EURO run very cold with no precip days 2-13.

We just need a good rainstorm between the cold snaps to make a complete.

[qg_omega]

We just keep going weeks with no storms and zzzzzzzz it’s not even really cold outside two days

[BombsAway1288]

Enjoy the cold with the little snow we’re getting from this then close the shades until Feb. Maybe we can actually catch a break with a big dog then 

[H2Otown_WX]

6 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Already well into February by then!

Yeah, "well into February" at 12z on the 2nd.

[Typhoon Tip]

I’d punt on the 24/25th … but not for manically enforced bipolar defensive downersism bs.  There’s method, not madness, available.  

The telecon have delta poorly over the last 2 days while we were distracted by today’s system. I was checking things out late this afternoon and the support has even reversed. 

The spatial synoptic layout still shows some  amplitude but the lack of numerical support typically presages wave space damping... “Correction tendency” is going the wrong way. Not sayin not to check - what else are we gonna do. lol. 
 

 

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Yeah, "well into February" at 12z on the 2nd.

Yeah

[JC-CT]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’d punt on the 24/25th … but not for manically enforced bipolar defensive downersism bs.  There’s method, not madness, available.  

The telecon have delta poorly over the last 2 days while we were distracted by today’s system. I was checking things out late this afternoon and the support has even reversed. 

The spatial synoptic layout still shows some  amplitude but the lack of numerical support typically presages wave space damping... “Correction tendency” is going the wrong way. Not sayin not to check - what else are we gonna do. lol. 
 

 

Yeah the pacific shat the bed

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’d punt on the 24/25th … but not for manically enforced bipolar defensive downersism bs.  There’s method, not madness, available.  

The telecon have delta poorly over the last 2 days while we were distracted by today’s system. I was checking things out late this afternoon and the support has even reversed. 

The spatial synoptic layout still shows some  amplitude but the lack of numerical support typically presages wave space damping... “Correction tendency” is going the wrong way. Not sayin not to check - what else are we gonna do. lol. 
 

 

Well, the has fared pretty well this decade.

[MJO812]

Euro weeklies continue the cold theme 

[MJO812]

[Prismshine Productions]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

we seriously need that positive...

[codfishsnowman]

Where are the clippers!?

[dendrite]

This is quite the headline map. Gotta love a WSW along 2/3 of the gulf coast.

[Lava Rock]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This is quite the headline map. Gotta love a WSW along 2/3 of the gulf coast.

I'm moving to Houston

[Typhoon Tip]

Eyeing the 28th -  1 ..2nd as the next period of interest. 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Snoozefest 

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Eyeing the 28th -  1 ..2nd as the next period of interest. 

 

 

southern stream vort into TPV is a good way to get snow. hopefully it works out

[Great Snow 1717]

4 hours ago, codfishsnowman said:

Where are the clippers!?

in Los Angeles...

[Typhoon Tip]

Gotta look deeper than what's actually materialized on the guidance daily's pictorials/cinema ...

... we've been in a low frequency, but high velocity +PNA the last several weeks - in fact ... it's pretty much thus far defined at seasonal bias.  Not sure what happens in February, but such is so to date. 

Anyway, that type of circulation mode does not lend to predicative skill.  In fact, the extended teleconnector projections have been detecting rather later than normal, and/or correcting more so relative to systemic expectation - call it that...

In this case, if you really want a popsicle headache ... we have a new +d(PNA) emerging during that period.  It's also happening about a 2 or 3 day lag, downwind, of a -EPO.   Timing a cold loading prior to one of these poorly modeled +deltas in the PNA ( which determinism is poor in low frequency circulation mode ), means plausibility exists for materialization couched in the time span in question.  

The index aspects were hinted yesterday, and now it's more coherent.  It's also in all three EPS/GEF/GEP. 

See ... all the above tends to percolate while the operational models are off doing their own thing.  Then at some point, the signal gets physically realized and then we see something in the daily d-drip dosing.  LOL   

 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Gotta look deeper than what's actually materialized on the guidance daily's pictorials/cinema ...

... we've been in a low frequency, but high velocity +PNA the last several weeks - in fact ... it's pretty much thus far defined at seasonal bias.  Not sure what happens in February, but such is so to date. 

Anyway, that type of circulation mode does not lend to predicative skill.  In fact, the extended teleconnector projections have been detecting rather later than normal, and/or correcting more so relative to systemic expectation - call it that...

In this case, if you really want a popsicle headache ... we have a new +d(PNA) emerging during that period.  It's also happening about a 2 or 3 day lag, downwind, of a -EPO.   Timing a cold loading prior to one of these poorly modeled +deltas in the PNA ( which determinism is poor in low frequency circulation mode ), means plausibility exists for materialization couched in the time span in question.  

The index aspects were hinted yesterday, and now it's more coherent.  It's also in all three EPS/GEF/GEP. 

See ... all the above tends to percolate while the operational models are off doing their own thing.  Then at some point, the signal gets physically realized and then we see something in the daily d-drip dosing.  LOL   

 

Don’t worry, we have your ridge folding over cutoff in CA ready to muck it up. 

[mahk_webstah]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Gotta look deeper than what's actually materialized on the guidance daily's pictorials/cinema ...

... we've been in a low frequency, but high velocity +PNA the last several weeks - in fact ... it's pretty much thus far defined at seasonal bias.  Not sure what happens in February, but such is so to date. 

Anyway, that type of circulation mode does not lend to predicative skill.  In fact, the extended teleconnector projections have been detecting rather later than normal, and/or correcting more so relative to systemic expectation - call it that...

In this case, if you really want a popsicle headache ... we have a new +d(PNA) emerging during that period.  It's also happening about a 2 or 3 day lag, downwind, of a -EPO.   Timing a cold loading prior to one of these poorly modeled +deltas in the PNA ( which determinism is poor in low frequency circulation mode ), means plausibility exists for materialization couched in the time span in question.  

The index aspects were hinted yesterday, and now it's more coherent.  It's also in all three EPS/GEF/GEP. 

See ... all the above tends to percolate while the operational models are off doing their own thing.  Then at some point, the signal gets physically realized and then we see something in the daily d-drip dosing.  LOL   

 

in simple terms from a non-meteorologist, I just assume something will pop up at some point in this fast flow.  No expectations for a biggie, but we'll probably get one in February.  Just thinking by Wednesday we'll be tracking something in the 5-7 day.  That is just a guess based on how this season is going.  But you give an actual scientific rationale.

[Typhoon Tip]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t worry, we have your ridge folding over cutoff in CA ready to muck it up. 

Jokes aside ...   the tl;dr version of all that does qualitatively define this +PNA:   biased west of the canonical spatial layout.

We haven't actually seen a Dakota's ridge axis yet this winter, despite the PNA being numerically positive along a couple of periodicity ... 

This is part and parcel in why these troughs dampen, or phasing fails.  That even after Xmas and just before NYE really should have been a beast but the nuanced/west aspect distorted the field and kept the wave spaces from interacting. 

Basically ... the west- biased PNA creates a bit of negative interference between the large scale, vs the short wave spaces where S/W propagate. 

Anyway, why the western ridge is always 20 or deg longitude west of where we need it ... I don't know why.  It keeps rematerializing too far west.  Maybe it does have something to do with the episodic -EPOs loading cold into an attribution environment - 

speculation but one thing that keeps jumping out at me is that in order to get cold enough for winter profile events, we can't seem to do it without unusually high gradient.  What we need the gradient to be in the hydrostatic thickness, not as much in the non-hydrostatic heights - where the geostrophic velocities are created.   This gradient is contributing to shear, and propagation speed of the S/W ...  both of which are negative interference for cyclogenic proficiency...  and also phasing aspect - well ...we've failed two phase beauts this season, which couldn't survive the model trek from the longer to short term ranges.  You could see the phase gradually coming unraveled, day by day, until the whole event was limited. 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

in simple terms from a non-meteorologist, I just assume something will pop up at some point in this fast flow.  No expectations for a biggie, but we'll probably get one in February.  Just thinking by Wednesday we'll be tracking something in the 5-7 day.  That is just a guess based on how this season is going.  But you give an actual scientific rationale.

mm  the fast flow is mitigation though.  It's an expression of a negative interference - it's almost like there is a storm budget.   If the wind is already raging at larger synoptic scales, there's less available to be expressed in the short scales where the storms are. 

The large scale is like hogging it all.   hahaha.  

Just trying to metaphor the idea there, but something just did pop.  We had a 4-7" event overnight.  

See the thing is, it's about mitigation - it's not about prevention.  Probabilities of getting things to happen is lower, do to narrowing in 'needle thread' .. or basal shear reducing amplitude... salad of offsets.  But that doesn't prevent every meal.  So yeah...things can happen.