Joker January

[dendrite]

 

[Heisy]

I thought the end of the 18z euro looked better, but there’s nothing really going on at the surface yet, maybe too positively tilted idk. There’s some GEFs members that turn this wave into a snowstorm so we’ll see what happens at 00z





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[MJO812]

Gfs says next weekend again

[ORH_wxman]

Canadian is buying next weekend too

[Heisy]

Gfs says next weekend again

Yeah, could tell the euro hopped on board at 18z so not surprised we seeing 00z do the same


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[H2Otown_WX]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Canadian is buying next weekend too

Does the track of Sunday night affect Wednesday/Thursday and or the weekend chance? I'm guessing the former is dead but I was thinking the farther west Sunday night is the more chance the baroclinic zone remains closer to the coast for next weekend.

[Heisy]

This looks potentially fun




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[MJO812]

Non stop cold pattern on gfs and cmc

[George001]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Non stop cold pattern on gfs and cmc

Stormy pattern too. We have 3 snow threats over the next 8 days

[H2Otown_WX]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Stormy pattern too. We have 3 snow threats over the next 8 days

Eh. I would say 2...Wednesday looks DOA

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Eh. I would say 2...Wednesday looks DOA

 

[H2Otown_WX]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

 

Hmmm, probably won't be enough for most of our subforum but maybe southeastern areas will cash in

[Damage In Tolland]

EPS has snow in SNE Thursday night. Big bump NW

[JC-CT]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

 

My parents just left today for north Carolina for the winter.

Suckers lol

[ORH_wxman]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS has snow in SNE Thursday night. Big bump NW

06z backed off some. Still worth watching but feels like a whiff wide right. 

[H2Otown_WX]

GFS trying for something on Friday but doesn't quite pull it off. That period definitely bears watching though, powderkeg pattern.

[Damage In Tolland]

Gfs tries sneaking some snow in midweek 

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Gfs tries sneaking some snow in midweek 

This run is 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This run is 

Zero interest.

[GCWarrior]

I’m having a hard time putting my finger on a recent similar winter to this one so far.  I’m 43 so those 80s winters aren’t really in my memory.  Our winter is a bit different than what you have further east.  13-14? 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah agreed. Imho 24th/25th has been on the proverbial risk assessment desk for a long while.   I remember Will and I bringing that up like 4 days ago?    

It's developing on a the inflection of a mass-field change.  Events are preferential to those periods.  Even this one tomorrow is on inflection - we mild today...transition tonight, boom tomorrow.  It's matter of scaling. 

The deepest cold air earlier in the week is trying to roll off the continent.  As it does ... heights tend to relax and the elephant sitting on a trampoline look becomes a little more flaccid.   So.. a trough has been well timed in that space going back a few days ... more so, then at other times less, but keeps showing up.  We'll see.    

[wxeyeNH]

35/29.5F  Light snow just begun.

[dendrite]

35.8° -SN

Should just wet the ground

[Damage In Tolland]

Can we go snow on snow on snow the next 7 days? Models say decent chance 

[George001]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Zero interest.

I like the setup for threat 3 a lot better than threat 2, but the one that excites me the most is tomorrow’s storm. 

[Torch Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Can we go snow on snow on snow the next 7 days? Models say decent chance 

KFS?

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

KFS?

Maybe look ?

[ORH_wxman]

24 minutes ago, George001 said:

I like the setup for threat 3 a lot better than threat 2, but the one that excites me the most is tomorrow’s storm. 

1/24 is more likely than 1/22. I think 1/22 is pretty much gone though can’t rule out some weenie snow on the Cape. Had a fleeting chance still maybe 12h ago but models are pretty happy to punt it now. 

1/24 has some work to do but there’s enough interest on ensemble guidance to keep following.

 

[wxeyeNH]

32.7F  -SN  Vis about 3/4 mile.  Ground is getting white as the temperature inches down

[EastonSN+]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1/24 is more likely than 1/22. I think 1/22 is pretty much gone though can’t rule out some weenie snow on the Cape. Had a fleeting chance still maybe 12h ago but models are pretty happy to punt it now. 

1/24 has some work to do but there’s enough interest on ensemble guidance to keep following.

 

Hopefully get another event before EOM.