40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I have zero appetite for mediocrity, in sports or weather- Either be a viable SB contender, or amass high draft picks and give me a day of intrigue in June. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Anyone know the futility record for ORH? I'm guessing 12-15" or so... I'm sure it has been mentioned before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Its 19.9" in Wilmington (1979-1980)...probably similar here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Anyone know the futility record for ORH? I'm guessing 12-15" or so... I'm sure it has been mentioned before Nevermind... looks like around 8.7" from 1936-1997 That was at the old site I think 1979-1980 were close... 9.4" ORH is probably low to mid 20s...its not 8.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: ORH is probably low to mid 20s...its not 8.7" Yeah... that is garbage from a new article... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 Its 19.9" in Wilmington (1979-1980)...probably similar here.How do you find the futility mark? Kinda curious what is is for Brattleboro Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Anyone know the futility record for ORH? I'm guessing 12-15" or so... I'm sure it has been mentioned before Will does… 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I know it is the 6z GFS, at 384 hrs...But that look, reminds me of something we haven't seen in what seems like forever. Brings back memories for sure, I didn't really read all of yesterday's talk on storms that we used to get, maybe this was an example though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Anyone know the futility record for ORH? I'm guessing 12-15" or so... I'm sure it has been mentioned before 21.2" in 1954-55 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 She's not gonna let us out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its 19.9" in Wilmington (1979-1980)...probably similar here. Can't really find great data around here back that far, atleast for active sites. 88-89 has to be a contender too. 20.7" at the Hudson Coop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I have a feeling Sunday night is going to surprise. You have some nice PVA feeding in and we're on the nose of a pretty strong 500mb jet streak. There should be some great frontogenesis over the region too. This would be one where I think the heaviest banding of snow would be farther northwest than models indicate and there is a nice inverted trough feature. I think this could evolve into a 3-6" type event for much of the region and maybe as much as 6-9" where heaviest banding traverses. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Thursday at 03:56 PM Share Posted Thursday at 03:56 PM k, so ... overdue arguments are shaky when it comes to statistics. we understand what is meant by that - if a region should experience a given x-y-z every 4 ... 8... 12 years, etc, and that has not occurred, we say "due" but the problem with that logic is that the statistical domain is not closed - it extends in interminably in the past, and future. such that you can have 3 events in 3 years, and greatly expend your 'due' in the other direction, then, go 20 years without anything. at 30 years, you look back, and that is why it's 4 times in 28... etc etc... in other words, the interpretation of 'due', automatically becomes false if not considering the noise/frequency behavior, in the total history. having outlined all that ... now, consider a changing climate - springs and autumns have really demoed increasing occurrences of quixotic extremes. october presentations of snow and or cryo supportive synoptics have increased in frequency - this has also been true in springs ...as late as May, since the last 20 or so years of the 'hocky stick' acceleration. these extremes make the "due" aspect above, even less useful. it's almost safer and more logically clad to suggest that the climate expectation is for stochastic extremes, more so than the prior inference will allow the due thing to parlay very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted Thursday at 04:09 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:09 PM This looks fun. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Thursday at 04:28 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:28 PM Canadian and GFS are interested in the Jan 22-25 event....they focus on different shortwaves. Canaidan tries to amplify the first one for Jan 22nd....GFS is trying for Jan 24-25th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Thursday at 04:28 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:28 PM Ski Club on Tuesday looks spiffy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Thursday at 04:30 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:30 PM Man a little sharper on the Canadian and we'd be demolished. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Thursday at 04:31 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:31 PM 12z GFS looks good on the 25th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Thursday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:32 PM Just now, CoastalWx said: Man a little sharper on the Canadian and we'd be demolished. Yeah I hope its' that wave that gets us....it's just choked with gulf moisture. Even verbatim, gets SE MA/Cape/RI with an advisory scraper. But back that NW a couple hundred miles and it's a blizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Thursday at 04:32 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:32 PM Let’s see how it looks 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariof Posted Thursday at 04:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:42 PM GFS looks great for SNE/coastal areas (this is out to 240h). G 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Thursday at 04:47 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:47 PM Yeah, agreed ... the 23-25th is probably the next viable risk period - nod to any model that speeds that up by a day between now and then, because of the underlying mode of circulation being what it is - fast. Just something that's been air apparent to me about that period, is that said mode of circulation is slowing. I spoke at length about this, yesterday, ...and then immediately the Euro's 12z run "re-compressed" the flow. The GFS however has maintained its idea of slowing things enough that the next series of wave mechanics have better ability to conserve it's total vitality as it runs up the flow at that time. That's why it's been more robust with that development. The CMC is not as relaxed... it's speeding up the same wave complex, but also has it suppressed because - time to iron this out. But ...as the present event that's looking above median confidence at this point, was all but gone yesterday ... these compression patterns can be overcome, too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Thursday at 04:50 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:50 PM 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Canadian and GFS are interested in the Jan 22-25 event....they focus on different shortwaves. Canaidan tries to amplify the first one for Jan 22nd....GFS is trying for Jan 24-25th. Like the GFS' timeframe better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Thursday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:51 PM how about the near triple stream phase 28th + ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted Thursday at 05:18 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:18 PM CMC has a wicked cold shot into Ohio, probably record territory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Thursday at 05:20 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:20 PM 52 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ski Club on Tuesday looks spiffy You'll have a reason to shake. Have one of the kids warm up the car. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted Thursday at 05:35 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:35 PM @RUNNAWAYICEBERG @HoarfrostHubb @40/70 Benchmark @ORH_wxman Lowest 10-Years of Snowfall for Worcester Area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Thursday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:43 PM Only one page of posts between 9:30 and 12,:30 in January tells you all you need to know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted Thursday at 05:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:48 PM 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: 1!tOnly one page of posts between 9:30 and 12,:30 in January tells you all you need to know. Yea I fnd it amazing there is zero talk about MLK day. 4 to 8 doesn’t matter to the spoiled. Lol Mike there is a thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted Thursday at 05:49 PM Share Posted Thursday at 05:49 PM 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: This looks fun. Zzzz, we were below -30 last year 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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